Valuation is not a timing tool (left), but it is an expectation tool (right).
Maybe this year is another good year, but you should EXPECT the next decade to be a real struggle.
Public Account:
$100 a week in deposits only. This is to show how anyone should start a portfolio from $0. Staying consistent with deposits, until you have $25k you see more gains from contributions rather than gains.
We will be looking for undervalued assets for this, thread🧵
1. Margins will increase vastly as cloud business grows.
2. Possibly the cheapest e-commerce store, trading at roughly 10x FTM, compared to $AMZN 45x. Sitting on $50 net cash, 25% of market cap.
3. I’m buying any time under $90-100 depending on market sentiment.
$436.6m in market cap
$404.09m cash + current assets + receivables
$61.95m in total liabilities
$342.14m in equity after all debt paid
21.6% premium over net-net
Total share count has stayed the same,
ROIC 5yr avg is 29.22%
Revenue CAGR growing at 33.4%, 10yr basis.
$GRVY
7.72 PE (TTM)
16.14% profit margin
$436.6m market cap
$350.56m revenue (TTM)
This is a strong balance sheet investment with good growth and a lot of cash for reinvestment. Gravity has been a leading mobile game maker in Asia for a few years now. Ranking first in many games
This would give a more fundamental basis for $CELH as income and revenue increases the PE should be compressed as long as there is no large jump in share price.
$CELH:
28x PE (TTM)
15.6% profit margin
6.18bln market cap
1.37bln revenue (TTM)
Revenue and income has fallen dramatically from Q2 to Q3, my thesis is when revenue picks up, which it will. This stock will return to $45 a share, 42% increase.
January 1st I will start a new public account for the discord. It will have a reoccurring $100 weekly transfer so new investors will see that it takes time to grow. My personal ROI from 2016 to 2023 when I closed the account was 46% CAGR while the S&P returned 14.78%.
Closed a few positions, trimmed some consumer to build cash. Still really like all of these names. Currently only buying $PYPL, $BABA, & $IMKTA at current levels.
$ULTA under $350
$LULU under $235
$DBX under $22