FinancialReek

Financial Markets Interest

[Sid The Bear @OverboughtWatch]

Let’s tear down the fantasy vs. reality for $MRNA

The Bull Math (The Trap):
• 120k US melanoma cases × $100k/tx = $12B TAM
• 20% net margin = $2.4B profit • 50/50 split with $MRK = $1.2B to Moderna
• 400M shares = +$3.00 EPS• “Easy multi-bagger ,right?!”

The Clinical & Commercial Reality:
Grossly exaggerated TAM:
Intismeran is ONLY for resected high-risk Stage IIB–IV melanoma. That’s ~22k US patients/year, NOT 120k. 80% of melanoma is early Stage 0/I cured with a scalpel in 15 minutes.
Real-world peak penetration: At 40% adoption of the eligible pool, that’s ~9k patients = $900M gross revenue, not $12B.
The net earnings haircut: At a generous 20% margin (bespoke mRNA sequencing & cold-chain logistics aren’t cheap):

• Total program profit: $180M
• $MRNA’s 50% cut: $90M
• Actual EPS contribution: +$0.23 (on ~400M shares)

You won't see meaningful commercial revenue until 2029 at the earliest. Even with late-stage data, regulatory filings, PDUFA reviews, reimbursement coding, and commercial ramp-up take years.

You are waiting until nearly the end of the decade, absorbing clinical & regulatory execution risk, all to net under a quarter per share in melanoma.

[Keyser Soze @KeyserSozeThree]

So .si is 1/2 their revenue, >$7bn. Meh.

Leaves their core businesses - space program & StarLink at $7bn in revenue. That’s horrific.

This isn’t a real company; it’s a mirage in the desert for people willfully ignorant enough to drink the sand & thank you for the water.

[FinancialReek @FinancialReek99]

@StyxCapital Does this mean the share price nukes 57.5% from current to account for the dilution?

[FinancialReek @FinancialReek99]

@Mr21318 @ellerby_dave @80milePLC Yeah I’ve been trying to scenario test the GLND stock price given the scenarios that could occur, but seems to be too many variables this far out from the confirmation

[FinancialReek @FinancialReek99]

@Mr21318 @ellerby_dave @80milePLC Do you think they’ll update the conversion ratio at all?

[Infinity36 @_Infinity36]

$GLND $GEOM

"Robert Price, CEO of Greenland Energy Company, told Fox News Digital his team is drilling around Disko Island in western Greenland for nickel, copper, palladium and cobalt. "This mining district could be one of the largest mining districts in the world," Price said, comparing its potential to Russia's mineral-rich Norilsk district.

"Critical minerals, they touch every part of our lives, which includes our cellphones, our computers, batteries, power storage, power generation," he added. The scale remains unproven as exploratory drilling continues."

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

These are bailouts