Financial Shooter

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[Wicaksono Management LC @bigdigjohnny]

The first 50 bps hike was quite a surprise, another 25 bps out of thin air was surely a signal of an emergency amid shrinking reserves. In the span of three weeks, we’ve hiked 75 bps, and the market is already starting to price in another 25 bps.

​It was a necessary move, but economic growth will pay the price because the market demands something bigger (iykyk). Banks will likely revise their targets down from double-digit credit growth to the high single digits, and the nation's GDP growth targets will have to be recalibrated to make room for the sake of populist government spending.

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

Despite the strong rally in Indonesian equities today, foreign investors continued to sell the three largest banks: BBCA, BMRI, and BBRI.

That remains the most important signal. A sustainable bull market is difficult to achieve without foreign participation because these three banks collectively represent a significant portion of the market’s capitalization, liquidity, and institutional ownership base. Foreign investors still own a substantial share of Indonesia’s banking sector, which means their positioning continues to influence overall market direction. As long as they remain net sellers or stay on the sidelines, it is difficult to argue that sentiment has fundamentally turned.

This is why today’s rally should be viewed with some caution. Price action can improve temporarily, but a durable rerating requires fresh capital. Without meaningful foreign inflows, rallies risk becoming positioning squeezes rather than the beginning of a new upcycle.

The bond market tells a similar story. Indonesia’s bond selloff deepened after Bank Indonesia delivered an off-cycle rate hike aimed at stabilizing the rupiah. The 10-year government bond yield surged to 7.51%, the highest level since November 2022, while the 5-year yield briefly touched levels last seen during the pandemic period in 2020. Rising yields suggest investors continue demanding higher compensation to hold Indonesian duration despite the central bank’s intervention.

That said, the latest move from Bank Indonesia appears more measured than the previous surprise 50bps hike. The tone was more targeted and less indicative of emergency policy action. Policymakers appear to be signaling that they are willing to defend the currency while avoiding unnecessary damage to domestic growth.

What is particularly interesting, however, is that market participants are already looking beyond this move. Expectations are building for additional tightening at the June 18 meeting, with some investors discussing the possibility of another 50bps hike.

If that becomes the base case, the question shifts from whether Bank Indonesia can stabilize the rupiah to why such aggressive tightening is still perceived as necessary. Monetary policy can slow speculation and improve interest-rate differentials, but it cannot single-handedly restore confidence if investors remain concerned about growth, fiscal policy, earnings momentum, and capital flows.

Ultimately, the message from both equities and bonds is similar. Indonesia’s challenge is no longer purely about valuation. Many assets already look cheap. The challenge is confidence. Until foreign investors become buyers rather than sellers, it is difficult to argue that the market has fully turned the corner.

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@handierawan Setuju, ga mau belajar dari yang dulu2

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@Cheytax_1 @bluecandleway I'm with you, Pak Chey haha

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@HidsalJ couldn't agree more, bro

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@Cheytax_1 @bluecandleway BBCA

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@dedewizard19 not yet

[Hanif | AI For Productivity @hanifproduktif]

> 1 Januari 2006: 9360
> 31 Desember 2006: 9090

Ternyata dari dulu udah salah prediksi-nya

[UNTO THE NEXT ONE⭕️ @vitalsfx1]

One of the most powerful indicator on TradingView and it’s completely free.

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@valenttt____ show the force aja itu

[hfmtrades @hfmtrades]

Strong & Akum yg jelas.

Big players akum dgn volume besar dan harga naik.
Lalu dibiarin konsolidasi dgn harga turun dan volume merendah.
Lalu diakum lagi dgn volume besar dan harga naik.

Rinse & repeat sampai barang habis.

Barang habis bisa terlihat dari tightening price action dan juga price lows yg makin lama makin tinggi dibanding low sebelomnya.

1. Breakout, buy. Pakai risk 0.5-1% per trade.
2. Pasang stoploss dibawah pivot dan pantau.
Jika terjadi pullback (harga turun), perhatikan price dan volume.
Selama price bertahan diatas garis breakout (garis biru horizontal) keep aja.
Jika turun dibawah garis horizontal dgn bbrp candle besar dan volume besar (volume lebih besar dari candle sebelomnya), consider sell 1/2. Nanti jika proven otherwise dimana harga kembali naik, kita bisa buy back. Ciri naik yg valid? nanti saya bahas kalo itu terjadi disaham ini. Akan saya update.
3. Pasang target take profit di 2-3R. Bisa sell all di 3R atau sedikitnya sell 1/2 porsi di 3R. Lalu sisanya pakai trail stop using Momentum.
4. Disiplin terus menerus dan konsisten lakukan. Jgn micro manage. Jgn greedy kalo udah win bbrp kali lalu mulai pikiran kotor mau beli rumah beli mobil beli ini itu dalam waktu pendek dan semua money risk management jadi gagal berantakan. Ini yg selalu jadi sebab kenapa orang banyak gagal atau lama jadi profitable trader.

#TradingSaham

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@BagusPerdana_ brb aing play duls, menemani senjakala

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@BagusPerdana_ enakeuunn. aing ikut muter lagu jagoan Daun en Ranting

[Bagus P. Perdana @BagusPerdana_]

Nyok, I'll Start

15 ++ Years Finance Karir belon pernah liat Tail se Tail Tail nya Event kaya gini

So i will put 20 Years into Context:

TLKM's LTM shareholder yield stands at 9.91% Plus Buyback jadi Dobel Digit Yield. A -6.91σ move in a high-yield, cash-generative SOE doesnt just happen without Extraordinaire Trigger.

Today is a once in 20 year event empirically it is the single worst day in TLKM's entire listed history on this dataset, exceeding the GFC peak by 4.6 percentage points.

Fat tails real and material. Excess kurtosis of +2.90 confirms TLKM's return distribution has significantly fatter tails than a normal distribution. Even so, today -14.49% sits beyond empirical 99.9th percentile (-9.08%) Outlier diantara Outlier.

Dan triggernya apa Bos ?

Stupidity Infinity

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

always enjoying great piece from @meridian_rsrch cool cool

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@meridian_rsrch sama-sama om om tim Meridian

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@pinkbourbon8898 orang berisik kek si Agnesius itu kudu dibiarin aja

[Financial Shooter @Financialshoot]

@primagnesius lama lama berisik lu asli

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: Tsunami alert has been issued for the Philippines, Indonesia, Palau, Taiwan and Papua New Guinea after massive 8.2 magnitude earthquake.