@jessefelder Another thing is what are the near term signs of a slowdown that could happen vs the backlog in orders…. Is there a near term catalyst to slow speculation?
'To get to a $740 share price simply requires NVDA to maintain a monopolist-like operating profit margin of 55% for the next decade, while also growing sales 10x to more than $600bn. For context, the entire industry sold $527bn worth of chips last year.' https://t.co/VQK0kOkM8H
US budget deficit is near 9% of GDP in an economy not viewed as being in recession. That means if a year ago we actually (*shock*) balanced the budget, GDP would have been near -6% last 12 months. If rates stay at 5.5% long enough interest payments will go up another $1 TRILLION
Will this bond-induced relief rally finally provide for sustainable breadth? Or should you not chase the recovery trade and stick with quality? The better risk-reward is the latter IMHO. Quality typically leads until earnings *broadly* improve. #macro#hoPe $RSP $IWM
History is very consistent - bond yields will not go down and stay down until the Fed is at their last rate hike. Then bonds rally hard. We remain neutral on LT bonds here. Trying to be patient. #macro#Fed#pivot $TLT
Market performance after the Fed is done hiking depends on 2 things: 1) are we heading towards a recession?; and 2) how far is that recession away? When recession followed, but recession was near, stocks saw a paltry pivot rally and then kept falling. #macro#fed#hope