FindleysFinance

The most transparent GARP investor | real-time stock analysis, personal finance, philosophy. $META, $BN, $FOUR, $ADBE, $QLYS, $CROX. Not financial advice

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

https://t.co/tpva40DLuT

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

Honestly, he might be right. Maybe the AI bubble DOES pop. But not every business is trading at bubble levels.

$META, $BN, $QLYS, $CROX, $ADBE, $FOUR, all trade below fair value. There are plenty of deals in the market, just as there are many stocks trading for MASSIVE premiums.

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP

On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening.

He also compared the current market to two specific years:

"We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about."

On all tech revolutions:
"All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right."

On the mechanism that pops bubbles:
"There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money."

On the wealth gap that comes with it:
"A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't."

On a political solution:
"I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve."

He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@PeterSchiff Because crypto is dung water...

People only buy it in hopes to exchange it for more fiat one day. It has no intrinsic value.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@ChiTown_A Okay... I really don't think you understand this chart hahaha. The business is currently seeing accelerated growth in both top and bottom line and consistently high ROIC.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

It all hinges on energy and stability in the Strait right now. Rates are becoming a bottleneck for capital raising, making borrowing more expensive for businesses right now.

Warsh thinks this tech revolution will be deflationary and wants to do preliminary cuts to avoid deflation in the future. But with inflation rising due to the longevity of these operations, it puts more pressure on the Fed to raise rates in the short term.

This one honestly seems to all point to energy costs.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@Masked_Ninja67 Underperformance in stock price while the business is growing is a good thing for buyers.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

$META is VERY cheap

The market is selling Meta off because of CapEx spend.

If the company maintains a high return on capital, then increased CapEx is actually a GOOD thing.

How am I wrong here?

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

The market didn't agree with me when I said $AVGO was expensive, but they do now

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

$AVGO reports earnings today after the bell.

The business looks expensive, trading at almost 2 PEG on a 5 year outlook.

Today's expectations:
- Expected Q2 Revenue: $22.12 billion
- Expected YoY Revenue Growth: +47.0% to +47.5%
- Expected AI Semiconductor Revenue: $10.70 billion (+140% YoY)
- Expected YoY Adjusted EPS Growth: +52.0%
- Expected YoY Operating Cash Flow Growth: +40.0% to +45.0%
- Target Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 68.0%

Long-Term Future Expectations:
- Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR (Median): +27.6% per year
- Projected 5-Year Operating Cash Flow CAGR: +31.4% to +43.3% per year
- Target Long-Term Free Cash Flow Margin: 41.0% to 46.0%

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@QualCompounders Yup. Same. Meta in 2022 was the perfect example and I was down about 30%, kept buying. I've made massive amounts of gains in this company so far, and it's still undervalued today.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

Market timing is a myth.

When a great opportunity appears, take it. Don't risk a good deal today waiting for the perfect one tomorrow.

Hesitate, and someone else will take it before you can change your mind.

[Dmitry Korshikov @KorshikovDm1try]

@FindleysFinance Cheap can get cheaper

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@ZorroXTrade @UncleInvest Yes it does but it's not similar to trading which is what buying and selling on a dime is.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

This guy is so wrong it sounds like a joke.

Don't let emotion compel you to make emotional decisions.

It's important to understand what you own when you buy stock in a company so you can avoid being stupid.

[SandemanStocks @Sandeman52]

Best advice you will see on X today.

Winners run.

Losers get booted to the door.

It’s not about stock picking, it’s about being able to pivot on a dime in the right direction.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@Investinc_Intel Very true.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

$CRWD reports earnings today after the bell.

At over 121x P/OCF, the business looks VERY expensive to me. Not touching it.

The market is currently expecting 20-22% CAGR to OCF over the next 5 years.

Would you pay 121x for 20% growth?

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@papoix Absolutely.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@Masked_Ninja67 Yes, because the business is deploying the cash... That's what I want them to do.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@BrokenToysInv Fair. But the data does show that Meta, even against consensus since inception, has performed very well on capital employment.

Even back in the early 2000's when the board wanted to sell to Yahoo. Zuck is usually right.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

$META is VERY cheap

The market is selling Meta off because of CapEx spend.

If the company maintains a high return on capital, then increased CapEx is actually a GOOD thing.

How am I wrong here?

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@r_saler It's not. None of you actually read the graph hahaha.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@safehavenmoney Yeah, but if you go off analyst calls you're going to have a really hard time hahaha.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

A friend once told me to buy $PLUG... I told him he was retarded.

That was at $80 a share hahaha. Glad I stuck to my GARP philosophy.

Even after a recent 330% increase to share price the business still looks like shit.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@CalebInvests_ It's called @stock_unlock I've been a subscriber since they launched a few years ago.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@DexOTC @WOLF_Financial Literally absurd.

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@Investinc_Intel Please don't use margin 🤣

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

With the AI super cycle causing many stocks to sky rocket, what are you doing now?

[FindleysFinance @FindleysFinance]

@jamesblazen1126 Really? Are we looking at different charts?