Stat most bitcoin:native holders don't track:
33% of circulating supply hasn't moved in 5+ years
2018 cycle: ~17%
2021 cycle: ~22%
hodlers are hodling?
Hayek predicting crypto/Bitcoin in 1984:
“I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government.”
“We can’t do so violently—all we can do is, by some sly roundabout way, introduce something that they can’t stop.”
Warren Buffett, 95 years old, has seen every market cycle imaginable.
And he's saying right now? We've never had a bigger gambling mood than this.
Not investing. Gambling.
The man isn't saying the sky is falling. He's just saying a whole lot of prices out there are... absolutely silly his words, not mine.
Maybe listen to the guy who's been right since before most of us were born.
Look at what the bond market just said about Britain.
30-year: 5.73%.
20-year: 5.67%.
10-year: 5.06%.
Every single one screaming.
The bond market does not bluff. It does not vote. It does not protest.
It prices the truth.
And it has just told you Britain is uninvestable at the rates you are being offered.
Higher yields are not a reward. They are danger pay.
At noon today Andrew Bailey will speak. He will tell you everything is fine.
The bond market has already called him a liar.
You are watching the slow motion bankruptcy of Britain.
The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).
I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt. After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above 65k and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases significantly.
BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place, the next 3-6 weeks will be telling.
Most Bitcoiners think BTC is a safe haven asset but the truth is nuanced.
It has the properties of a safe haven asset. In times of war you can take your seed phrase, cross borders and start afresh without losing your wealth.
It should be independent of the system and thrive if it collapses. These are the properties you’d expect of a safe haven.
BTC has the properties of a safe haven but to this day, in times of uncertainty and war it trades like a risk asset, very sensitive to uncertainty.
This is because the large capital pools don’t acknowledge BTC’s properties as it’s considered too new and untested. Hence it trades like the NASDAQ.
It’ll take another decade for it to gain market acceptance as a safe haven, maybe longer. When it does, it’ll give gold market cap a run for its money.
each $BTC bear market has been shallower than the last: -93%, -87%, -84%, -77%, -68%
this cycle's peak drawdown so far: 47%
No parabolic top. No 80% flush. No capitulation low.
the cycle may not be broken and insteasd it's maturing