This is the highest CAPE I've ever seen modelled for the UK, and potentially the highest we'll ever see.
The risk of severe thunderstorms begins tomorrow and could continue right through to the end of the week. Monday currently looks like the most likely day for widespread thunderstorm development, as clear triggers are present. There is much more uncertainty from Tuesday through Friday. While models continue to show extreme instability, they currently lack obvious triggers, although that could change as we get closer.
Even taking a conservative approach, CAPE values of 2,000–5,000 J/kg appear possible across much of the UK, particularly across southern and central areas. These are exceptionally high values for the UK and would support severe thunderstorms and potentially supercells, especially where strong wind shear is present.
Very frequent lightning, large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding could all be possible at various points between Monday and Friday if storms develop.
Tomorrow may see a more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms, particularly along the M4 corridor, including areas around Bristol, Gloucester, Swindon, and extending into North Wales.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 30s°C, while dew points could climb into the low to mid 20s°C. This combination is creating an extremely unstable airmass and is the reason such extraordinary CAPE values are being forecast.
I do not say this lightly: if sufficient triggers develop to release this instability, we could be looking at a historic week of severe weather by UK standards.
@SouthernRailUK Was on the train from London bridge to Horsham, going to Purley. I’m now in Gatwick???? Please let me know how to get a refund on a paper ticket.
Yesterday’s drama will never be topped, ever! So let’s double the money just for today 👀
If there’s a 9 darter hit in ANY of today’s World Darts Championship games, I’ll give away £100 to someone! All you have to do is:
Like
Retweet
Follow @joshpearson180
Good luck!🤞🏼🎯
🔥 GIVEAWAY TIME! 🔥
Win 1 of 3 sets of the brand new @Winmau Fusion Arrows 🎯
To enter:
1️⃣ Like & repost this tweet ❤️
2⃣Follow @OfficialPDC
3️⃣ Follow @Winmau
🎁 3 winners chosen at random
📅 Announced: 11 July 2025
📦 1 set per winner
@ContiUK To enter…
1️⃣ Like this post & tag who you’d take to the rugby
2️⃣ Follow @goodbadrugby, @goodscazrugby & @continental.tyres
3️⃣ Share this post to your story for a bonus entry!
T&C’s apply - See link in bio 🔗
Competition closes on Thu 6th Feb
Level up your setup with a chance to win a @Nanoleaf#BlackOps6 Bundle. All you have to do is follow these steps:
1️⃣ Follow @CallofDutyUK and @Nanoleaf
2️⃣ Retweet this post
Good luck 🫡
T&Cs: https://t.co/cLtfI3uIGF
@KFC_UKI every time I try to reset my password, I get the Opps something went wrong, try again. I gave a few months ago, tried again and it's still happening.