Value Whore

Investing (micro/quant/fundamentals/value), Data tools (w/A LOT of help from AI), Bicycles, Shaking my head @ Dunning/Krueger Morons, Travel & Vroom!!

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@finphysnerd Not sure if you're familiar with RAFI based indexes, I think PRF is the vanilla one, & IUS is an improved one that weeds out lower quality companies, it's weighted based on fundamentals, closer to value, but not quite, but better than market cap weighted. Check them out

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@finphysnerd If you can handle some volatility using QQQ or ONEQ as the foundation and then figuring out a way to smooth out the bumps might lead to higher returns and still meet your needs

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket I was reading something similar about MHC's in "The Manual of Ideas" recently & they used the example of the shares owned my non-shareholders are like akin to buyback shares in treasury that they don't cancel. Thanks for shining some light on this, have to learn more about these

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket For retail analysis like this I like to hit Google Maps and read/scrape reviews for dozens of key locations & also to see where they are located by panning/searching & density & also Google Trends for overall scale compare/trends & deeper dive.

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket I've visited See's yrs back & in airport pop-ups, also visited $RMCF location even further back at a downtown NYC location (not even sure if it still exists), RM was a trashy cafe w/chocolate & was graveyard dead, horrible lighting & See's were immaculate & overflowing w/sweets

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@finphysnerd You looking at GAAP earnings or cashflow basis? Capex is miniscule compare for depreciation and they are a buyback monster... Very different analysis if viewed that way.

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@finphysnerd Your smarts makes things so complex, and seems like leads you into the short term game, like a quant. But seems like you have the excess mental bandwidth to handle it all, hopefully some tools too...

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

Your underlying assumption that the wall street workflow is valuable is flawed, so GIGO. Wall Street is about more AUM/Fees, not outperformance, great, now have even more overconfident competitors acting dumb & accepting institutional sized biases & limitations blindly ALPHA!!

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

ANTHROPIC JUST OPEN SOURCED THE ENTIRE WALL STREET WORKFLOW AND FIRMS ARE NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY ABOUT IT.

DCF models. LBO models. Equity research reports. Merger analysis. KYC checks.

All of it. Free. On GitHub.

Here is what just became available to anyone with a laptop.

Direct connections to Bloomberg, FactSet, S&P Global, Morningstar, and PitchBook.

Real Excel models with live formulas and sensitivity tables built automatically.

CIMs, IC memos, earnings reports, and buyer lists drafted on demand.

PE due diligence, GL reconciliation, and NAV tie-outs running as production agents.

This is not a chatbot wrapper that summarizes financial news.

These are production agents that own entire financial workflows end to end.

The kind that investment banks and private equity firms pay $50,000 to $500,000 per year in software licenses to run.

Now it is a one-line Claude Code plugin install.

19,800 GitHub stars.

Apache 2.0 license.

100% open source.

Think about what this actually means.

A junior analyst at a bulge bracket bank spends 80% of their 100-hour week running models, drafting memos, and compiling data across Bloomberg and FactSet.

That entire workflow just became a Claude Code agent.

The banks charging clients $500 an hour for analysis that this system produces in minutes are not going to tell you this exists.

The boutique advisory firms charging $50,000 retainers for due diligence work that these agents handle autonomously are not going to promote this repo.

But it is already live.

19,800 people have already starred it.

The window where knowing this gives you an edge over every analyst, associate, and advisor still doing this manually is open right now.

Star it. Fork it. Deploy it this weekend.

Bookmark this before your next financial model.

Follow @cyrilXBT for every open source release that disrupts an overpriced industry the moment it drops.

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@finphysnerd Not to mention Zuck has shiny object syndrome (the company name is "Meta" & that was a waste of ~$20b+), plus he has voting control & nobody can check him except for shareholders selling and the stock plummeting, since he's got super voting shares >50% votes, same 4 Musk $SPCX

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

Agree a bit, but SpaceX owns this platform, able to rally the cult(s), sculpt narratives, plus has a near monopoly on space, Starlink cashflow & Musk premium. Plus a lot nowadays is about attention/vibes & the "story", social media changes the half-life, it's a swing trade for me

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

SpaceX is the most overhyped IPO of the decade and it will end exactly the way every overhyped IPO ends. Facebook IPO’d at $38 and traded under that for 15 months. Uber IPO’d at $45 and is still below that adjusted seven years later for a while. WeWork tried at $47 billion and ended at zero. Robinhood IPO’d at $38, hit $85, then $7. Coinbase IPO’d at $381 and was at $40 two years later. Rivian IPO’d at a $100 billion valuation with no meaningful revenue and gave back 90%. Beyond Meat. Peloton. Lyft. DoorDash. Bird. Each one a “generational company” the day it priced.

Each one a wealth destruction event for retail within 18 months. The pattern is not a coincidence. Hype IPOs are designed to transfer wealth from the people buying the story to the people who built the story. The bankers get paid. The early employees get out. The VCs get a markup they can show their LPs. The retail investor gets the bag. SpaceX is a great company. That has nothing to do with whether it’s a great stock at IPO. Greatness was already priced in five funding rounds ago. You are not getting in early. You are buying the exit. The only IPO worth chasing is the one nobody is talking about. Those don’t exist anymore because every IPO is marketed like a movie release. So the answer is: don’t chase. Wait two years. Buy it down 70% when the lockup unwinds and the narrative breaks. Or don’t buy it at all and put the money somewhere the bankers haven’t already extracted the alpha. Hype is not an asset class. It’s a tax.

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket @kevinmmayo Nice! Will check this tool out & see about building something similar but that goes beyond bank call transcripts to extract signals! 💯 Let me know if interested in checking it out or if particular industry you'd find it useful for and I can explore including. Appreciate the info

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket Same for $CALM🥚Started tracker position as it's earnings yield popped near the top of my tools output, but digging in more to its historical cyclical trends. Any insights or ideas of cyclicality adjustments? I'm going to add various trailing periods to find "normal" ranges

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

Yeah, but you also need to be 100% invested in that one asset, which also adds lots of YOLO risk (which we mainly hear from the minority survivors, & not the majority of losers that quietly disappear) #dumb #peak #bubble #mania

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

You only need three 10-baggers in order to go from $1 million to $1 billion.

$1m to $10m
$10m to $100m
$100m to $1bn

If you’re starting with $10k, you only need five.

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@adam3us Wouldn't you say that if you were or were not Satoshi? Need something falsifiable.

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket @mrmoneymustache You mentioned hiring someone, you should revisit, read up & experiment w/LLMs & understand their strengths & limitations. Then decide if you actually need to hire someone. I'm a little techie, but w/AI being my coder I'm able to save 1000s of hrs/mo & develop my own tech stack

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket Great post! Wild that someone as analytical/smart as @mrmoneymustache who played a big part in popularizing FIRE dropped the ⚽/blindspot, led to an index fund bias & left money on the table, while also requiring much higher capital bases bc 4% rule & low returns, but 🤷‍♂️. EZ wins

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket I read so much posts and comments of ppl backing up the truck on $FICO bc it dropped tons, but it's just relatively cheap relative to previous stupid pricing and still objectively expensive. Anchoring to past price & valuation is a fools errand

[Value Whore @FixedHub]

@OtterMarket What am I missing? To me it got ridiculously overvalued before & that became normal & now it's just less overvalued. I've looked at the financials & unless there's some weird accounting going on that I'm missing I don't get it. Ppl keep saying "monopoly" & untapped pricing pwr...