For a stock picker, diversification dilutes your best ideas.
For a trend follower, diversification IS the best idea.
I ran the numbers. 40 years, 68 markets. The ten biggest trends were tin, milk, rice, cocoa. Odds of picking those in advance? 1 in 7.4 billion.
You can't choose the outlier. You can only be there.
A year ago, people from Bercy, France's economy ministry, asked me about AI and robotics.
I told them what I actually thought. It didn't match what they wanted to hear. So they cut everything I said from the report, and wrote the opposite. I doubt I was the only one.
Today Bercy launches a "Directorate of Artificial Intelligence." Its mission: "define and implement the AI strategy," "pool compute capacity," "accelerate the development of agents."
Translation: we're going to plan innovation from an office. That has never worked. Not once.
OpenAI didn't come out of a decision in Washington.
Anthropic isn't a federal program.
xAI isn't a state initiative.
The technological leaps of the decade came from people who were building, not committees that were planning.
The real economy isn't a game of Civilization. You don't unlock "AI level 3" by checking a box on a tech tree.
And this isn't just an opinion. Hayek proved it in 1945 in "The Use of Knowledge in Society": the information needed to allocate resources is scattered across millions of actors and exists nowhere in aggregate form. No central planner can assemble it. It's structurally impossible.
The IMF said it again in 2024, with the numbers: trying to "pick winners" destroys capital, raises the risk of misallocation, and lowers productivity.
You want the perfect example of the French state planning a "technology of the future"? The Minitel. Cited today in the global economics literature as the textbook case of the state-chosen national champion that locked the country in while the Internet was being built everywhere else. We're really going to do this again with AI?
Because here's what planners don't understand: when you build something genuinely new, nobody knows what will work. That's the definition of new. The best AI researchers on earth are wrong about six months out. Labs pivot every quarter. Uncertainty isn't a market failure to correct. It's the nature of the frontier.
Now look at who's steering. Four ministers signed this.
Lescure (Economy): Polytechnique, ENSAE, twenty-five years in asset management, chief investment officer of a fund. A career spent allocating capital, never building what it's invested in.
Amiel (Public Accounts), who carries the public-AI push: ENS, Princeton, economics. Advisor, then politician.
Le Hรฉnanff, the actual AI minister: business school, a career in agribusiness then digital consulting.
Papin (SMEs): a retail executive.
Not one of them has ever shipped a product or worked in tech.
And here's the category error. Even the people who spend their nights training models don't know where this goes. So people who don't use the tool daily, claiming to plan its national deployment, aren't a little off. They're solving the wrong problem entirely.
I'm not writing this to spit on anyone. I build in this field every day, and I want France to grow.
Happy to help. But on two conditions. Start by listening. Actually listening, not to delete what's inconvenient afterward. And accept that maybe it's simply not yours to plan.
Let people build. That's how it works. Everywhere. Every time.
๐ซ๐ท A French tax official was arrested for selling crypto investors' home addresses and financial records to criminal networks.
41 kidnappings followed. One every 2.5 days since January 2026.
The criminals didn't need to hack anything. They bought a list from someone inside the government.
France is the most dangerous country in the world right now if you hold crypto and someone knows about it ๐
Source: Le Mond
Either smart Bitcoin just called the bottom on this market in the midst of a war, or retarded $BTC is leading the charge into the bull trap. Which is it?
@801010athlete@stamatoudism Do this:
Pick a real problem you have right now.
Open Claude or ChatGPT and try to solve it
Your first prompt will suck, iterate until it doesn't
Repeat daily for 2 weeks
That's it. The "clueless" phase ends the moment you stop learning about AI and start building with it.