FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings

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[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

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[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

Dosage information for The Oaks at Epsom

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

FlatStats Ratings for The Oaks at Epsom today.

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

Why you should avoid the two lowest (and the highest) stalls over the Derby distance at Epsom.

It's not so relevant in this year's Oaks or Coronation Cup due to the smaller field sizes, but certainly be aware for the Derby.

https://t.co/txVCjTCipr

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

Another day and another example of the Cobra Effect.

At Doncaster there is a very unusual amount of horses not running because of either a vets or self certification.

The problem is the ground is wrong; it is not what was expected when connections declared these runners two days ago. Connections don't want to run here so they are faced with either a cobra fine or having to state "the horse is not right". No doubt some of these are genuine setbacks for the horse, but when you get an unusual amount it is clear to see that something is just not right here.

The BHA can keep creating new rules to try and limit this but it is not getting to the root of the problem - the impracticalities of 48 hour declarations.

The BHA have been concerned about falling field sizes for the past 15 / 20 years. Could they not just stop and realise that excessive non runners contribute to smaller field sizes?

Is it too much to ask for a review into this? A thorough review could determine how fewer non runners there would be with 24 hour declarations. A review could determine if going reports would be more accurate, and it could determine if clerks of the course would have less pressure put on them.

One of the advantages of having 48 hour decs was that 'more money would be generated for racing'. I am still not convinced that ever happened - or certainly the more money generated never reached the front line of racing. A review would work all this out; it would see how much extra money racing is receiving and it could deduct the amount lost due to to non runners. If the figures are hugely positive then maybe 48 hour declarations is a price worth paying. But if the figures are slightly positive (or negative as was predicted) then it is clear that 48 hour declarations is a failure - all the negatives that were pointed out were true and no end of cobra rules have failed to address them.

20 years ago there was a report commissioned by the NTF which stated the negatives. It showed that the NTF were strongly against 48 hour declarations. I wonder what @ntfnews position is today?

Here's the original report from 2006:

https://t.co/kVuHQumH16

Make up your own mind as to if the positives were achieved and if the negatives came true.

If you like, then join me in calling for a new report into if British Racing Should Return to 24-Hour Declarations.

The BHA, media moguls, and dyed in the wool punters will do everything they can to stop a review and to keep the status quo. They are like teenagers who will never not eat a tomato because they did not like them when they were a toddler. They don't want to change back because they made a mistake back then and just don't want to admit it.

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

https://t.co/IFlyKBWmSN

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

Since 1990 the Derby has had the following goings:

1 Firm
9 Good to Firm
20 Good
6 Good to Soft

As for this Saturday it looks as if it could be spot on Good ground but the unknown is the rain that is due overnight Friday into Saturday. If they refrain from watering because of that and the rain does not appear then the ground could easily go Good to Firm on Saturday.

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

An unusual amount of self certs at Wetherby. Maybe the going ain't right.

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

@wtwfan12195 That's exactly it. If connections could have declared yesterday morning - rather than Tuesday morning - they would not have declared those horses that became NRs and would have put in horses that prefer firmer ground instead.

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

https://t.co/IFlyKBWmSN

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

We're running a subscribers Nap contest this summer. There are some nice prizes to be won. If you have played this contest before you know the format and can play again from today (subscribers only).

https://t.co/gCrzLlxHZi

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

Anyone else follow us in with the blue draws today?

No. No I don't think so because some of the extreme draw biases had extreme priced winners including 66/1 shot Anficas Beauty.

Here's the full list of winners and places from the 10 blue draw races today:

1:15C High DBI Machadrop (drawn 8) 1st 9/2
1:15C - High DBI - Imelda (11) 3rd 18/1

3:30C - High DBI - Brighton Boy (8) 2nd 11/1

3:45C - Mid DBI - Blue Courvoisier (5) 1st 5/1
3:45C - Mid DBI - Crest Of Fire (6) 3rd 100/30

5:28C - Mid DBI - Count Palatine (5) 3rd 16/1

1:50C - High DBI - Virtuous Star (9) 1st 12/1

2:20C - High DBI - Undercover Affair (10) 2nd 5/4

4:05C - High DBI - Ruby's Angel (11) 1st 7/2
4:05C - High DBI - Cherry Baker (9) 2nd 4/1

5:08B - High DBI - Anficas Beauty (10) 1st 66/1
5:08B - High DBI - Penny Ghent (8) 3rd 5/2

2:27C - High DBI - Sea Her Excel (9) 3rd 12/1

Out of 10 races with a blue draw bias index 5 races had the winner and at least a place was returned in 9 of the races.

Note the HIGH draw biases for the Chester races. Did you back low draws because you assume low always win at Chester?

If you did you made two mistakes. The first is that you should not back something that 'always' wins because for the times that it does win the price may not be enough to counteract the loss in stakes when it doesn't win! You need to be looking at the A/E stat - not the number of wins, not the strike rate, not the ROI% stat - those stats have no value element.

The second mistake is that Chester is different now. The realigning of the rails, the positioning of the stalls, the knowledge that some jockeys have, and the possible overbetting of the low numbers means that in some of the races at Chester high numbers have an extreme edge.

So are you going to keep on doing what you have always done? Or are you going to try something different?

Try FlatStats. We're always innovating and we're always looking out for edges that the masses don't know about. You can either be with the masses and find it tough to get an edge or you can be with us and instantly see the value draw biases.

Flick on to stay with the masses. Click on the FlatStats draw bias link to view three free DBI figures each day, or better still subscribe now and see the all races that have DBI figures each day.

The Derby is coming up - are you going low, mid or high?
Royal Ascot is coming up - are you going low, mid or high in the big races?

There are dozens of other races at the smaller meetings too.

Join now!

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[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

There are 10 races with significant positive draw biases today. Two races are extreme with FlatStats DBI figures of 119!

https://t.co/mixK1MVLRf

(Figures based on current field sizes and going. If there are non runners in a race or a going change the DBI may change).

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

Punters, pundits and tipsters: "Back the low draws at Chester in every race"

FlatStats: "Don't follow the sheep - back the high draws in some of the races"

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

There are 10 races with significant positive draw biases today. Two races are extreme with FlatStats DBI figures of 119!

https://t.co/mixK1MVLRf

(Figures based on current field sizes and going. If there are non runners in a race or a going change the DBI may change).

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

There are 10 races with significant positive draw biases today. Two races are extreme with FlatStats DBI figures of 119!

https://t.co/mixK1MVLRf

(Figures based on current field sizes and going. If there are non runners in a race or a going change the DBI may change).

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

https://t.co/guPzQSCC26

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

At 16:30 Lingfield are *still* calling it Good, with Good to Firm in places.

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

*** Extreme Jockey Favourite Stats ***

Connor Beasley Long Distance Race, Favourites: 17 wins, 32 runs, 53% strike rate, 1.58 A/E, 60% profit, 10.8 Exp, 5.4 Archie

3:20R Gaelic Approach

[FlatStats - Systems Stats and Ratings @FlatStats]

*** Extreme Trainer Favourite Stats ***

A W Carroll Course Bath, Favourites: 28 wins, 47 runs, 60% strike rate, 1.85 A/E, 93% profit, 15.2 Exp, 16.1 Archie

4:00B Correspondence
4:30B Annexation