Flow Verdict

Decode options flow beyond the headline.
Evidence-bound verdicts. AI-ready cases. Updates when evidence changes.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

“$10M CALL SWEEP” is not a verdict.

It could be a hedge, spread leg, roll—or real directional demand.

Flow Verdict separates what the tape proves from what the headline assumes,
then revisits the case at T+1.

Follow to see which headlines survive the evidence.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

https://t.co/8cJzrZ9MkC

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$GOOGL earnings put still does not prove bearish demand—even after OI updated.

Jul 24 $345P: 12,452 contracts, $13.0M gross. Current OI: 13,814. NBBO: unresolved. Package: unresolved. Opening/closing: unresolved. Next proof: full-package + execution-side review.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

TSLA reports after today’s close.Jul 21 Jul 24 380C traded 7684 contracts for 41.7M gross premium 5.4K/contract.NBBO side/package legs unresolved. Verdict big pre-event activity does not prove bullish https://t.co/zJayVyDobQ proof T+1 OI + full-package review.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$529,000,000 hit $GOOGL options in ONE day (Jul 15).

Three days: ~$1.25B in betting cash.
One Sep $410 call open alone: ~$59M.

Ticket prices:
Jul24 $350C ~$9–10 → ~$900–$1,000 per contract
Jul24 $362.5C ~$5 → ~$500+ each

Priced swing off ~$347:
about $330 to $365.

Huge money. Expensive bets. Wide band.
Calls and puts both showed size — not one clean side.

Huge table. Tickets cost hundreds each.
Priced for a real swing — both sides still at the table.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$SMCI +20% AH after prelims.
• Jul 17 Jul24 $25C — +9.6k ΔOI @ ~$0.87 → ~4.6x+ at ~$29–30 (~+$3M class)
• Jul 16 Jul24 $26.5C — +10.4k @ ~$0.72 → ~3.5x+ (~+$1.8M+)
• Jul 16 Jul24 $26C — +6.6k @ ~$0.86 → ~3.5x+ (~+$1.4M+)

Pre-print open. Post-print mark. Est = avg entry × confirmed ΔOI — not one account.
Higher strikes / last week’s Jul-17 OTM calls still show the other side of lottery risk.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$SNDK — structure day.

+14% spot vs fat Jul-31 139/150P + Jul-24 160C sell-side block.
Reads collar/monetize until OI ratios confirm.

Side: $AEHR 85P after +28% · $LRCX 345C into 7/29 earnings.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

Jul 21 options: $TSM paid. $MU lied. $SNDK hedged.

$TSM Aug21 410C/420C — spot +5.5% with real call follow (~$21M / ~$15M). Open 420C clips 850+786 @~$24.
Upgrade only if OI sticks tomorrow.

$MU ~$101M calls ≠ fresh long. Gap → call mid-day → put-heavy close (940P ~$2.7M block).
Trade the stock state, not the call tape.

$SNDK +14% with huge Jul-31 puts + sell-side 160C → collar/monetize first, not clean bear.

Watch: $AEHR Aug21 85P after +28% · $LRCX Jul31 345C into 7/29 call.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$MU — don’t buy the headline.

900/950/1000C ~$101M looked huge.
Path: gap → mid call → late 940P buy (~1,005 lots / $2.7M)

Call blocks had sell-side. This is lock/hedge risk, not “$100M bullish.”

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$TSM — the clean one.

Aug21 410C ~$21M · 420C ~$15M
Open: 850 + 786 lots @ ~$24 on 420C
Spot $424.61 (+5.55%)

Tomorrow: OI on 410/420 must rise or it’s just volume.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

@amitisinvesting $SMCI ~$29. The pre-guide lottery that paid:

• Jul 17 Jul24 $25C: +9.6k ΔOI @ ~$0.87 → ~4.6x, ~+$3.0M
• Jul 16 Jul24 $26.5C: +10.4k ΔOI @ ~$0.72 → ~3.5x, ~+$1.8M
• Jul 16 Jul24 $26C: +6.6k ΔOI @ ~$0.86 → ~3.5x, ~+$1.4M

≈ +$6M on those three opens at this mark (est).

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

@StockSavvyShay $SMCI ~$29. The pre-guide lottery that paid:

• Jul 17 Jul24 $25C: +9.6k ΔOI @ ~$0.87 → ~4.6x, ~+$3.0M
• Jul 16 Jul24 $26.5C: +10.4k ΔOI @ ~$0.72 → ~3.5x, ~+$1.8M
• Jul 16 Jul24 $26C: +6.6k ΔOI @ ~$0.86 → ~3.5x, ~+$1.4M

≈ +$6M on those three opens at this mark (est).

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

Est. only (intrinsic @ ~$3.2):

Jun 4 13:50 — Jul 17 $2C 21,783 lots ask
Entry ~$0.30 → cost ~$0.65M → value ~$2.6M → ≈ +$2M (~4x) on that print alone.

Jun 1 13:45 — Jun 18 $2C 3,225 lots → rough +$0.3M same path.

$3C paper needs a bigger gap-up to lottery; $2C was the real lottery strike.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

Date: 2026-07-21
MU: 865.46 prev | 925.35 open | 970.82 close | +12.17%
High: 982.88
Calls*: $101.4M gross | 31,305 contracts
940P: $26.3M | 9,206
Inflection: 14:00 ET
Flow cutoff: 15:49 ET

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

“$10M CALL SWEEP” is not a verdict.

It could be a hedge, spread leg, roll—or real directional demand.

Flow Verdict separates what the tape proves from what the headline assumes,
then revisits the case at T+1.

Follow to see which headlines survive the evidence.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

5/ FLOW VERDICT

The rally was real. “Calls drove it” was too simple.

Stock gap → calls confirm → turnover fades → late put-heavy mix.

940P may be protection, a roll or closing flow. T+1 OI is the next test.

Follow for the ruling. Research only. Not financial advice.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

4/ 13:00–15:49 | CONFIRMATION BREAKS

13–14: MU hit $982.88, then slipped. Calls $8.5M vs 940P $3.2M, but call gross
halved again.

14–15:49: calls $9.1M vs 940P $12.5M. MU closed $970.82, 1.2% below the high.

The mix flipped only after spot had already stalled.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

3/ 12:00–13:00 | THE DIVERGENCE

MU: $952.50 → $977.55 (+2.6%).
Call trio: $17.2M / 4,423—gross fell 35% from the prior hour.
940P: $6.9M / 2,450.
1000C: $19.55 → $32.96.

Spot accelerated as new call turnover fell. Convexity expanded; activity did
not.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

2/ 11:00–12:00 | CALLS CONFIRM

MU: $945.38 → $952.59 (+0.8%).
Call trio: $26.7M / 6,304 contracts.
950C led gross at $13.2M; 900C added $9.6M.
940P: $2.1M / 622.

This was the clearest call-participation window as spot kept climbing

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

1/ 09:30–11:00 ET | STOCK LED

MU: $865.46 prior close → $925.35 open (+6.9% gap) → $945.38.
Call trio: $39.8M gross / 15,593 contracts.
940P: $1.6M / 377.

The gap existed first. Calls confirmed the rebound; they did not create the
opening +6.9%.

[Flow Verdict @FlowVerdict]

$MU closed +12.2%. Its 900/950/1000C trio printed $101.4M gross.

Headline: “calls drove the rally.” The hourly tape says that’s incomplete.

Stock led the gap. Calls confirmed the middle. Call turnover faded before the
high. From 14:00, 940P overtook all 3 calls combined. 🧵