Oil above $100 matters because it can keep inflation elevated even as growth weakens.
That’s the bind: weak jobs would normally support rate cuts, but higher energy costs can delay that relief.
Watch housing and small-business data next. That’s where an oil shock can start showing up as broader economic stress.
@pwrhungry The market is still treating power as a side note to the AI buildout.
That probably changes fast once energy security starts affecting project timelines, not just margins.
@elerianm The sudden-stop risk matters even more where demand can’t pause.
AI data-center buildouts don’t get to wait out energy shocks the way other capex can.
That friction still feels underpriced.
Everyone is still pricing AI like power is infinite.
Oil just snapped above $90, and the market is still treating energy as a footnote to the data-center buildout.
It isn’t.
The AI trade is quietly becoming a power trade.