Chris Robson

Macro, Crypto & Nfts (Fluf Maxi)

[PLRL by Verasity @verasitytech]

$VRA is up there between $XRP and $BTC in @LunarCrush trending searches!🔥

We also have top 50 social activity today out of 4,300+ projects, and we're in the top 150 tokens for price change & trading volume!🤯

Check it out here:
https://t.co/BoAQqxqaIK

[Michael Nicoletos @mnicoletos]

Interesting… @RaoulGMI 👇#AI

[6529 @punk6529]

pretend the US dollar is a crypto project. describe its tokeneconomics in that style

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

If you want to know more about The Global Macro Investor just remember it isn't cheap and is only aimed at more sophisticated investors. Ive been writing it for 19 years now...

https://t.co/wEN8IMiUtU

[PLRL by Verasity @verasitytech]

$VRA once again ranking above $BTC in search volume on @LunarCrush - Used by over 600k people monthly to research #blockchain projects with huge social impact! 🔥

[Chris Robson @Fluf_Breeder_UK]

@verasitytech @CoinMarketCap https://t.co/UE93ebywpp

Great for UK regs soon

[web3kc.eth @kingscounselxyz]

1/The UK government has just announced that it aims to be “the most open, well-regulated, and technologically advanced capital market in the world��. Major crypto law reform for is planned to make that happen. For those wishing to get ahead of the legal curve, the TLDR 👇

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The UK and others jurisdictions must be rubbing their hands with glee. US regulatory arbitrage is a core business model of the UK finance industry...

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

Good interview with @CaitlinLong_ by @KellyCNBC.

-Caitlin’s bank Custodia wanted to back all deposits with reserves but was denied by the Fed.

-The reluctance to allow and formalize stablecoins domestically has increased market share for offshore stablecoins.

[Eight @CryptoEights]

🔹 #NFT OF THE DAY! 16 Mar 2023
🏆 @flufworld
#FLUFWorld

[PLRL by Verasity @verasitytech]

The #VeraCard is here! 💳 In association with @damex_io, UK residents can now sign up for the #VeraCard waiting list!

Enjoy a new way to spend online & in-store with a Verasity-branded card! 🛍️Rolling out to other countries soon! 🌍

👉Sign up: https://t.co/6Bkr5rhbrX

[Ben Mezrich @benmezrich]

This cast. :)

[The Root Network @iamrootnetwork]

I am (root) a public decentralized blockchain network optimized for metaverse apps and experiences.

Follow along for 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 updates, announcements, challenges and more.

[Dip @dip_collector]

@MrFreshTime @futureverse XRP will not only be the gas token of the Root Network, Ripple will have a stake in the @futureverse.
Probably nothing, or what was it that Rosie Rios said? 🤔

[Hooded @Cryptopunkgg]

Finally, it's here the @FIFAWCAILEAGUE play testing!

I got rugged 3-2 in my first game but this is so cool!

Such a clean looking app, I'm going to have a lot of fun with this! Well done @altstatemachine

Anyone else testing? #PLAYTOEARNGAMES

[[email protected] @rjmark_verasity]

Read the in-depth article how @verasitytech uses #AI & #ML with #PoV to drive our ad tech technology for mass adoption. $VRA

[Chris Robson @Fluf_Breeder_UK]

@JessicaManins @BeyondAnton @beyondxworlds @GravitaleHQ @cryptojangDo @VeraWang

[captain.root @aaronmcdnz]

I keep thinking these can’t get better but then the team go and do this. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The @futureverse is undefeated.

[Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight]

👀 Ready for another vol dive into the exciting world of #crypto to discover new opportunities?

💰 Wondering how big players are positioned for hedging or generating alpha?

🛑 Hold on, don't scroll any further!

➠ Click "...show more" to explore this week's Crypto Roundup! ☟

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#RealizedVolatility

𝞂 As BTC 25k resistance was rejected and crypto sold off, implied vols got hit.

Anticipating that realised would fall as we stayed in the 22-25k range.

Sure enough, realised vol has collapsed by 20p in BTC and ~10p in ETH.

Taking volatility carry back to positive.

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➠ #ImpliedVolatility

𝞂 The implied vol collapse was accelerated by the dumping of calls that hadn't worked out but still had some premium left.

Systematic vol selling after expiry/into the weekend did the rest.

PCE inflation data took down stocks on Friday, and crypto markets could not ignore the macro.

With carry back to median levels, short-dated implied vol looks fair to slightly cheap.

But a catalyst is needed to break the range.

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➠ #TermStructure

𝞂 #BTC term structure fell back into contango as the front end got hit hard last week.

#ETH curve trading in line with BTC, with a steep contango.

This is slightly surprising, given #Shanghai upgrade due in March.

ETH/BTC vol spread trading in 5-6 vol range across maturities as 10d realised spread remains flat.

The long-term chart of the vol spread suggests this is a great entry...

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☞ More details can be found in this week's Crypto Options Weekly note to subs ☜

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➠ #Skew

𝞂 Skew normalising back towards flat as upside momentum was lost.

BTC had been driving the call premium led by front-end expires.

But has now faded back down to slightly in favor of call across all maturities.

ETH skew also converging back towards neutral.

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𝞂 This bid for #Calls in long-term BTC makes structural hedging using risk reversals look appealing.

Especially for crypto players w/large treasuries to manage.

We expect this flow will increase if BTC gets to ≈28k.

On the other hand, the persistent ETH put skew is a potential selling opportunity...

IF you are underweight ETH and looking to add exposure.

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➠ #BTCoptions Flows

𝞂 Volumes dropped off as 25k resistance failed & 24Feb expiry rolled off.

Some good two-way flows in 3Mar and 31Mar upside in 25-27K strike zone as calls that didn't work changed hands.

Put protection buying also came back with 24k-19k strikes trading in 3Mar and 31Mar

30Jun saw straddle sellers on the 24k and 27k strike.

Big outright buyers of 45k calls.

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➠ #ETHoptions Flows

𝞂 Still very call dominated.

Some two-way on puts with buyers of 3Mar 1600 and 30Jun 1000 puts.

But a 10k clip of 26May 1500 #Puts sold.

Upside bought in many forms.

Notable clips were 10Mar 1700 calls, and 30Jun 1600/2100 call spreads.

Big convexity trade in 30Jun as seller of 2500/3500 cal ratio 1 by 3

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➠ #Bitcoin #Gamma Positioning

𝞂 BTC dealer gamma still short.

But less extreme as spot retraced lower, and upside got sold back.

Dealers that are still short the 31Mar 26-28k zone have longs in front of it.

So we see little #squeeze potential.

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➠ #Ethereum #Gamma Positioning

𝞂 ETH positioning more long vol.

31Mar strikes look scattered from 1600-1900.

We may see this flip if an upside move starts and call demand comes in.

Taking dealers short.

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➠ That's a wrap on this week's Crypto Roundup! 🙏

If you want more details, go watch this week's Crypto Insight video on the Options Insight YouTube Channel!

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(link in follow-up tweet)

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➠ If you enjoyed this Crypto Roundup, let me know your thoughts or questions in the replies!

And if you want even more detailed research and trade ideas on crypto and crypto vol...

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Cheers!