Flux Energy Trading

50+ energy contracts for retail.
Crude • Products • Time Spreads • Perpetuals
Now on @onyxcapgroup
CFD retail accounts generally lose money

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

A quick update from us.

Flux Energy Trading content and updates will now be shared through @onyxcapgroup

As part of Onyx Capital Group, we’re bringing future energy market insights, product updates and market structure content together in one place moving forward.

You’ll still see the same Flux Energy Trading content, including:
• oil market insights
• broader energy market updates

Now shared through @onyxcapgroup.

Follow @onyxcapgroup to stay updated.

#OOTT #Trading #Commodities #OilMarkets #EnergyMarkets

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

After such a sharp decline, a bounce is perfectly normal. The bigger question is whether it reflects a change in fundamentals or simply a technical recovery after an oversold move. That will become clearer as inventories, export data and shipping flows start to confirm whether the recent repricing has gone too far.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

Brent returning to pre-conflict levels says the market has largely closed the chapter on disruption risk. The focus has shifted from whether oil can move through Hormuz to how quickly those flows translate into higher exports and looser physical balances. The market has already priced the normalization. Now the data has to confirm it.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

@KobeissiLetter The focus has shifted from geopolitical risk to the underlying fundamentals. The key question now is whether inventories and physical balances validate the market's view, or whether prices have moved ahead of reality.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The $71 to $72 area is important from a technical perspective, but whether it holds will likely depend more on fundamentals than charts. If supply continues to normalize and inventories begin rebuilding, support could eventually give way. If physical balances remain tight, buyers may start to see value around these levels. The next move will probably be decided by the data, not the chart alone.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

@NSTRIKE1231 The more interesting question is whether it has gone too far. If inventories remain tight and demand proves more resilient than expected, today's prices could eventually be challenged. If stocks begin rebuilding, the market's current pricing will look much more justified.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

Prices are signalling a comfortable supply outlook, while inventories continue to point to a physically tight market. At some point, either inventories need to rebuild to justify current prices, or the market will have to reassess how much future supply is actually coming. That tension is likely to become one of the defining themes for crude over the coming months.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The price action is arguably the biggest story here. A few weeks ago, reports of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz would likely have triggered a sharp rally in crude. Today, the market is largely looking through them because the broader expectation of normalized supply and shipping remains intact. That suggests sentiment has shifted from reacting to headlines to focusing on whether they actually change physical flows.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

Markets may have removed the geopolitical premium, but that doesn't necessarily mean oil has reached its long-term fair value. If inventories remain tight and supply investment stays constrained, the market could eventually settle at a higher price than today's spot levels. The question is whether those structural factors outweigh the current improvement in supply expectations.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The market has now moved well beyond simply removing the geopolitical premium. At these levels, traders are increasingly pricing a more comfortable supply outlook rather than just a lower probability of disruption. The next phase will likely be driven by inventories, demand and whether physical balances evolve as quickly as prices already suggest.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The market has clearly moved beyond pricing the conflict itself. WTI below $70 suggests traders now see the recent supply disruption as temporary and are focusing instead on a more balanced supply outlook. The next question is whether lower crude prices translate into cheaper fuel, which will depend on refining margins, distribution costs and taxes rather than oil alone.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

A few weeks ago, a vessel incident near Oman would probably have pushed crude higher. Today, prices continue to fall because traders see it as an isolated event against a much larger backdrop of improving shipping flows and easing supply concerns. That is a sign of just how much sentiment has shifted.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

@TheCradleMedia Today, prices continue to fall because traders remain focused on the broader normalization of supply and shipping. That suggests the market's confidence in the overall supply outlook is currently outweighing isolated geopolitical risks.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

@BrettErickson28 The issue isn't simply more barrels reaching the market. It's whether those barrels become competitive enough to attract a wider range of buyers. That would reinforce the broader narrative of improving supply and add another source of downward pressure on prices.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

@Rory_Johnston Most of the adjustment has happened at the front of the curve, where geopolitical premium was concentrated. The back end has moved far less, suggesting the market viewed the disruption as temporary rather than a long-term change in the supply outlook.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The move below $70 is symbolic because it marks the complete reversal of the conflict-driven rally. Just a few months ago, the market was pricing a major supply shock. Today, it's pricing a much more comfortable supply outlook. The debate has shifted from geopolitical risk to whether fundamentals are soft enough to justify prices at these levels.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

@coldexecutlon Prices have moved much faster than the physical market, so the next phase will likely be driven by inventories, exports and demand rather than geopolitics alone.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The market has clearly decided that the disruption was temporary. Brent has fallen back to levels last seen before the conflict, which tells you traders are placing much more weight on normalized flows than on geopolitical risk. The next question is whether the physical market follows the same path, or whether inventories and demand paint a more nuanced picture.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The market has clearly moved on from pricing the conflict itself. The bigger question now is whether prices have moved ahead of the fundamentals. Oil is already trading as though supply has normalized. Inventories remain relatively tight. The next few weeks should reveal whether physical balances catch up with what the market is already pricing.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

The interesting point is that the market keeps finding new reasons to stay bearish. It started with easing geopolitical risk, then improving shipping conditions, and now the focus is shifting toward supply, inventories and demand. That suggests the narrative has evolved beyond simply removing the war premium.

[Flux Energy Trading @FluxEnergyTrd]

What's remarkable is not that WTI is back below $70. It's that the market has gone from pricing a severe supply disruption to pricing a more comfortable supply outlook than it had before the conflict even began. That tells you how decisively sentiment has shifted over the past few weeks.