The Premier League is back tonight. Here's what last season said about the sides opening it.
From 21 January to 30 May 2026 we tracked every Premier League player price and settled it against the real match stats. Best returns among the clubs in action this weekend, on a flat 1-unit stake:
1. Idrissa Gueye (Everton) — 2+ shots — 6/12, avg 3.21 → +67%
2. Pedro Porro (Tottenham) — 2+ shots — 6/12, avg 3.06 → +50%
3. João Pedro (Chelsea) — 3+ shots — 9/15, avg 2.14 → +41%
4. Joelinton (Newcastle) — 3+ fouls — 6/12, avg 2.74 → +40%
5. Habib Diarra (Sunderland) — 2+ fouls drawn — 9/14, avg 2.12 → +37%
No Arsenal player makes it, and that's the interesting part. Arsenal were the second least foul-prone side of this weekend's fixtures — 8.68 fouls per game from their starting XI, behind only Manchester City's 8.60. A leaderboard built on fouls and shots doesn't reward a team that dominates the ball and doesn't kick anyone.
Past results, not predictions.
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Over 900 player props odds per game filtered to the top ~20 based on statistical analysis 💯
La Liga is back tomorrow. Here's what last season said about the sides opening it.
From 21 January to 30 May 2026 we tracked every La Liga player price and settled it against the real match stats. Best returns among the ten clubs in action this weekend, on a flat 1-unit stake:
1. Rubén García (Osasuna) — 2+ fouls — 8/15, avg 2.31 → +31%
2. Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante) — 1+ shot on target — 8/17, avg 2.47 → +20%
3. Toni Martínez (Alavés) — 1+ shot on target — 12/16, avg 1.53 → +16%
4. Martín Satriano (Getafe) — 2+ fouls drawn — 8/15, avg 2.20 → +14%
5. Pape Gueye (Villarreal) — 2+ fouls drawn — 10/14, avg 1.55 → +10%
Saturday's opener is the two most foul-prone squads of the weekend playing each other: Getafe averaged 12.74 fouls a game from their starting XI last season, Alavés 12.68. Sevilla are third at 12.32. Three of the five lines above are foul markets — that's not a coincidence.
Past results, not predictions.
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La Liga is back on Saturday. Here's what last season said about it.
From 21 January to 30 May 2026 we tracked every La Liga player price and settled it against the real match stats. Ranked by return on a flat 1-unit stake:
1. Guido Rodríguez (Valencia) — 2+ fouls drawn — 9/13, avg 2.30 → +57%
2. Vitor Reis (Girona) — 1+ shot — 10/17, avg 2.35 → +43%
3. Adrián de la Fuente (Levante) — 1+ foul drawn — 12/16, avg 1.84 → +36%
4. Víctor Muñoz (Osasuna) — 3+ shots — 8/14, avg 2.22 → +29%
5. Florian Lejeune (Rayo) — 1+ shot on target — 10/15, avg 1.98 → +27%
Three centre backs in the top five. That's the pattern — the market prices defenders for shots and fouls drawn as if they barely happen, and last season in Spain they happened often enough to return more than any forward.
Past results, not predictions.
Fobal is live for 2026/27 — link in bio.
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First fixture of the season. First one in.
✅£10 → £47.50
All three legs came straight off Fobal's board, published before kickoff:
• Gomes 2+ fouls — our top-rated pick of the night (82)
• Maatsen 1+ fouls won (71)
• Bizot 4+ saves (62)The Gomes leg was one of our free picks. You didn't need to pay to get it.18+ | https://t.co/80cFLjVBiu
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PSG face Aston Villa tonight. Here's what last season's numbers said about both squads.
From 21 January to 30 May 2026 we tracked every player price both teams were given and settled it against the real match stats. Ranked by return on a flat 1-unit stake:
1. Emiliano Martínez (Aston Villa) — 3+ saves — 9/10, avg 1.74 → +54%
2. Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) — 1+ foul — 16/21, avg 1.52 → +13%
3. Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) — 1+ shot on target — 15/21, avg 1.50 → +7%
4. Vitinha (PSG) — 1+ foul — 8/14, avg 1.84 → +6%
5. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG) — 2+ shots on target — 9/20, avg 2.14 → +3%
Villa take the top three, and the reason is in the same data: PSG's starters averaged 14.2 shots and 7.5 fouls a game, Villa 10.0 and 9.0. Dominate the ball and your players foul less and your keeper works less — which is exactly why Martínez, facing 3.1 saves a game to Donnarumma's 2.3, tops the list.
Past results, not predictions.
Fobal is live for 2026/27 — link in bio.
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Five bets at 26/1 that actually landed last season. Every one by the bare minimum.
Neal Maupay (Sevilla) — 4+ fouls — needed 4, got 4
Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa) — 5+ fouls drawn — needed 5, got 5
Nicolás Valentini (Verona) — 5+ fouls — needed 5, got 5
Paul Mendy (Cagliari) — 5+ fouls — needed 5, got 5
Gustaf Lagerbielke (Braga) — 4+ fouls drawn — needed 4, got 4
£10 returned £260 on each. These are the wild ones, not a system — a 26/1 shot is priced there for a reason. Past results, not predictions.
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Virgil van Dijk returned more than any Premier League player last season. Not for goals — for shots on target.
From 21 January to 30 May 2026 we tracked every Premier League player line and settled it against the actual match stats. Ranked by return on a flat 1-unit stake at closing odds:
1. Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool) - 1+ shot on target - 9/14, avg 3.85 → +149%
2. Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton) - 2+ shots - 10/14, avg 2.21 → +63%
3. Álex Jiménez (Bournemouth) - 2+ fouls - 8/12, avg 2.37 → +54%
4. Casemiro (Man United) - 1+ shot on target - 9/14, avg 2.29 → +40%
5. Sven Botman (Newcastle) - 1+ shot - 8/12, avg 1.92 → +32%
A leaderboard of what returned best last season, picked from thousands of player-market combinations. Past results, not predictions.
New season starts this month. Follow for the numbers every matchday.
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3 of the 5 best "shots over 0.5" bets in the PL last season were centre backs.
Barnes 12/16 @ 2.18 → +91%
Lacroix 9/13 @ 1.84 → +29%
Mosquera 9/13 @ 1.81 → +29%
Senesi 8/15 @ 2.30 → +22%
Sadiki 11/16 @ 1.85 → +21%
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