FocusEconomics

The latest macroeconomic forecasts & analysis for 198 countries & 40+ commodities.

Get the #ConsensusForecast from our global network of leading economists.

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https://t.co/5Kj7j0dSwG

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🔎 Why have some Asian economies seen an improvement in their 2026 GDP growth outlook since the Iran war broke out, while other Asian economies have seen it worsen? It's a tale of energy imports and semiconductor exports.

🔻Generally, countries which import a lot of oil and LNG and which depend on private consumption to fuel GDP growth have seen the sharpest downgrades. The Philippines - which sourced 95% of its oil imports from the Middle East vs Asia's 65% average before the war - is the most extreme case. Other countries seeing cuts to their 2026 GDP growth outlook include Australia, India, Pakistan and Thailand.

💻 In contrast, countries that are supplying the semiconductors needed to fuel the U.S.' surging AI investment - Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and most notably, Taiwan - have seen the outlook for their 2026 GDP growth strengthen in recent months.

🐼 China, meanwhile, has been able to protect itself from the Iran energy shock by turning to its huge reserves of coal, and is also benefiting from the AI boom as the government supports its indigenous chip producers.

See how the outlook is shifting for your markets on FocusAnalytics.

Link available in the comments.

#AsiaPacific #GlobalEconomy #GDP #EconomicOutlook #EnergyMarkets #Semiconductors #ArtificialIntelligence #Geopolitics #TradeEconomics

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

According to our Consensus Forecast, the G7's share of global economic output should fall through 2050. The dip will be largely driven by a smaller European slice - the U.S. is projected to continue making up about 25% of global GDP even in 2050.

See what our Consensus Forecast projects through 2050 and plan accordingly:
https://t.co/RS9CQ3vviF

#GlobalEconomy #G7 #GDP #EconomicOutlook #Europe #UnitedStates #UnitedKingdom

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Blink and you'll miss it - Consensus Forecasts have shifted since the Iran war broke out on February 28th.

FocusEconomics' Consensus Forecasts cover 198 economies on a daily basis.

Since the war broke out, 2026 GDP forecasts have worsened especially sharply for countries around the Gulf, who have been forced to slash their production of crude oil and natural gas as they are unable to ship via the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz.

Other economies are also seeing downgrades, but so far these have been fairly limited, with economists banking on the Strait of Hormuz reopening soon.

#GlobalEconomy #GDP #MacroEconomics #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #Geopolitics

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Our panel of the world’s leading economists are hiking their forecasts for inflation in Latin America this year, with net fuel importers particularly hard-hit by surging global prices as a result of the war in Iran.

Get ahead of shifting inflation dynamics in Latin America with FocusAnalytics:
https://t.co/RS9CQ3w38d

#Inflation #LatinAmerica #EconomicOutlook #EnergyMarkets #EmergingMarkets

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Mexico’s economic growth should pick up after a tough 2026, which is being weighed on by American tariffs as well as by the Iran war stoking inflation and hurting external demand.

Inflation should cool in the medium term, while remaining lightly above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target.

The exchange rate, meanwhile, should gradually weaken through 2030 on higher inflation than the U.S.

#Mexico #MexicanEconomy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #Peso #EmergingMarkets #LatAm

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Most leading Asian currencies are set to lose ground against the U.S. dollar this year, with rising geopolitical instability stoking safe-haven demand.

Most notably, China's yuan is set to reach its strongest end-year level since 2021, making the country's exports more expensive for foreign countries.

This may help mitigate the concerns of foreign governments about the impact on local businesses of a potential 'second China shock' of cheaper, subsidized shipments of high-tech goods like EVs, lithium-iron batteries and solar energy equipment.

Access the latest exchange rate data on FocusAnalytics:
https://t.co/RS9CQ3vviF

#Asia #FX #Currencies #USDollar #Yuan #RMB #ChinaShock #EVs #Geopolitics

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

What to Watch For in Macroeconomics?

🌎 Last week, we published our latest analysis and forecasts for Central and Latin America. Here's what our latest report covers:

🔎 How central banks in the region (Brazil, Chile, Mexico...) have responded to surging energy and fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz

📉 GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the year as a whole for Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay, plus economic activity data from January 2026 for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Peru

🤝 Coverage of the latest economic data and news, including inflation, manufacturing and trade figures, as well as elections in Peru and the Colombia-Ecuador border dispute

Get all the data and analysis via FocusAnalytics:
https://t.co/RS9CQ3vviF

#EmergingMarkets #LatinAmerica #MacroResearch #CentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation

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https://t.co/5Kj7j0dSwG

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Curious about which economies will see the sharpest growth in GDP per person in what remains of the 2020s?

The per capita GDP of developing economies like India will rise most acutely, bolstered by catch-up growth and more favorable demographics. Mature economies like Germany or France will strengthen less quickly.

These economies are just 15 of the 198 that are available via our data platform, FocusAnalytics.

Want to know how your country's wealth will evolve over the next few decades? Access a free trial of FocusAnalytics - link available in the comments.

#GDP #GlobalMarkets #EconomicOutlook #EmergingMarkets #BusinessIntelligence

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Which economies are pulling ahead and which are falling behind in 2026?

Global growth is forecast at 2.9%, but performance varies widely across countries.

Fastest growth:
Ethiopia 🇪🇹
Kyrgyzstan🇰🇬
Rwanda🇷🇼

Weakest:
Iran 🇮🇷
Germany 🇩🇪
Austria 🇦🇹

Compare country outlooks ↓
https://t.co/RS9CQ3vviF

#Economics #GlobalEconomy #GDP

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

🇲🇽 Mexico’s economic activity contracted 0.9% MoM in January (Dec: +0.2%), the weakest reading since December 2024.

Services, industry and agriculture all declined.

In annual terms, activity fell 0.3% YoY.

Read the full analysis ↓
https://t.co/bv1REpW7Tm

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

🇷🇸 Serbia's GDP growth accelerated to 2.2% YoY in Q4 2025 (Q3: 2.0%), driven by stronger domestic demand and a rebound in investment.

Economists expect growth to pick up further in 2026, supported by lower rates and infrastructure spending.

Read more ↓
https://t.co/Wd090jLmoF

#Serbia #GDP #Economics

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

A clearer view of the global economy.

The Global GDP Tracker lets you follow real-time Consensus Forecasts across the world’s economies in one place.

Start exploring: https://t.co/EwMhuHoMLZ

#GlobalEconomy #GDP #Macroeconomics

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Geopolitical shocks are changing how companies use economic forecasts.

The Iran war shows how quickly conditions can shift:

• Energy prices surge
• Inflation expectations move
• Rate expectations reprice

Economists are already revising outlooks for growth, inflation and markets.

In this environment, reacting isn’t enough -
forecasts need to update in real time.

FocusAnalytics brings together Consensus Forecasts from 300+ institutions, updated daily ↓
https://t.co/RS9CQ3vviF

#Macroeconomics #GlobalEconomy

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

The Middle East outlook is shifting fast - and it matters for businesses.

GDP forecasts are being revised down as the conflict disrupts oil exports, trade and investment.

Iran’s economy is expected to contract 1.0% in 2026 according to FocusEconomics' Consensus. However, panelists with forecasts updated since the 9th March project a much steeper fall of 7.1%.

For decision-makers, the challenge is no longer just accuracy. It’s keeping up with a rapidly changing outlook.

Read the full analysis ↓
https://t.co/GanlWYBwYC

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

Tariffs, wars and surging AI investment are reshaping the global outlook fast.

Economists are already revising forecasts for major economies, including oil prices and the Gulf.

In this environment, forecasts can’t stay static.

FocusAnalytics brings together the latest Consensus Forecasts from 400+ institutions, updated daily.

Try FocusAnalytics today for free and access the latest outlook: https://t.co/RS9CQ3vviF

#Economics #GlobalEconomy

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

The GDP growth outlook for 2026 has improved across most major LATAM economies - but one is resisting the trend.

Colombia stands out:
• A 20%+ minimum wage hike is expected to push rates higher
• Q4 growth disappointed expectations

Risks remain, including higher fuel prices from the Iran war.

#LatinAmerica #Economics #GDP

[FocusEconomics @FocusEconomics]

🇫🇷 France inflation rose to 1.1% YoY in February, up from 0.4% in January.

Price growth strengthened across several categories, including food and transportation.

Do you see inflation continuing to pick up in the coming months?

https://t.co/gQD9E9fnzv

#France #Inflation #Economics #CPI