If $BTC fails to reverse the move up within the next 40 days, the cycle has changed.
For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the cycle low would have formed in Q3 instead of Q4.
Personally, I don’t see Bitcoin dropping 35-40% within a month from here.
@camelfinance Hi Camel, Because the weekly cycles on BTC have Inverted and were longer this cycle does that mean that the 4 year cycle could be shorter as they all revert back to the mean... which would mean the bottom potentially in? Thanks so much
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In 1986 a guy got kicked out of every casino in Vegas for counting cards. So he flew to Hong Kong with $180,000 and started betting on horses instead. He walked away with almost $900 million.
It's Bill Benter. He figured horse racing was just another counting problem. Same math, more moving parts.
He and a partner showed up with $180k and a computer. Benter spent years teaching that computer to guess one thing, the real chance each horse had to win. If his number was better than the odds the bookies gave, he bet. If not, he skipped it.
That's the whole trick. Expected value.
EV = p · b − (1 − p)
Only bet when your win chance p, at odds b, is worth more than your chance of losing.
This recording was never meant to be some hidden gem. Nobody expected Professor Tsitsiklis to hand the whole foundation away in 45 minutes, but that's exactly what happens on the board. Students in that room pay over $80,000 a year to sit through it. It's free right here. It's free right here.
Every quant, every professional bettor, every hedge fund analyst started with this exact hour. Benter just watched it and actually did the homework.
Almost nobody knows this lecture even exists. Watch it before it gets taken down.
The answer is in this video.
@Sawcruhteez Hi Sawcruhteez sorry just coming back now, its smarter web company a bitcoin treasury company and thanks for taking the time. have a great day
@Sawcruhteez Hi Sawcruhteez, can you please check the SWC (UK bitcoin Treasury) for a funky hyperwave formation? and any entry levels and targets would be brilliant. Thanks so much
For years we've been tracking this pattern on the 1W BTC NVT/HV chart.
Volatility has been compressing into a tighter and tighter range.
Markets don't stay compressed forever.
Whether the next major move is up or down, history suggests volatility is building.
What do you think this means for Bitcoin volatility? 👇
@TonySeverinoCMT Tony, every btc cycle top finished at a derivative of 1,618 except this cycle... it finished at the 1.414 fib... could it be that the cycle low also doesnt go to the 1.618 Fib retrace? Inshallah it does and we get good entries but just a thought?
Let's start with $BTC. Sorry for the delay.
Let’s do some simple math around $BTC, saylor and $STRC . Total purchased bitcoin so far for $MSTR is 88,568. Total holdings have reached 818,334 with a goal of hitting at least 1m by eoy. The average is around 730 BTC per da. It’s a rough average and varies slightly..
There are 450 BTC mined per day. So in the same period of purchases 40,500. Strategy is currently on pact to buy 1.6x the supply mined. So one single corporate buyer of BTC has bought more than DOUBLE the btc created in this period.
Obviously, at some point something has to give. In the past year I’ve not taken many BTC trades and have been more focused on stocks. Only trading 85k to 92k. 68k to 76k. However. I think once BTC clears the mid 80’s and holds the chances of seeing new highs are quite high. And thus I’ve made new purchases and plan to hold that for the foreseeable future. I’ll do a little weekly update around this. Any increased buying from ETF’s from here will have an outsized impact imo.
In terms of probabilities, I think the lows are in and we could see BTC trade as high as $180k between this year and next.
The confirmation for that imo is likely holding the mid 80k's short term as the signal for momentum to begin.
@Breedlove22 Hi Robert, Thanks for sharing your peptides journey, can you also share the other aspects to heal your gut and inflammation both of which my body currently has. Much appreciated Viva Bitcoin 💪❤️
@blockchainchick Heidi with respect but another lazy post where you alude to something you cannot articulate or possible even understand … spell it out to us what the actual problems are .. I’m not saying there aren’t any but come on in plain English .. otherwise it’s just more click bait