2025 AI startup checklist:
- Add ‘agentic’ to pitch deck ✓
- Raise $15M pre-revenue ✓
- MVP thats just ChatGPT + memory ✓
- Call it ‘the final interface’ ✓
- Die in 9 months
What a time to be a founder
If you have under $10 million and you are buying Apple, you have voluntarily entered the one fight in all of public markets where you have no edge, no advantage, and no reason to exist.
There are 40 PhDs, three sell-side teams, and a sovereign wealth fund modeling Apple’s next quarter to the penny, and you, with your brokerage app and your podcast opinions, have decided to join that table. You will not find a mispricing in Apple. The mispricing in Apple was arbitraged away before you finished reading the headline.
Meanwhile there is a $90 million industrial parts distributor in Wisconsin that no analyst covers, no fund can buy because the position would take six weeks to build, and no institution will touch because it would not move the needle on a billion-dollar book. That is your table. That is the only table where being small is an asset instead of a punchline. Your size, the thing that feels like a limitation, is the single greatest structural edge available to a human being in public equities, and you are spending it on the most picked-over stock on Earth.
The big funds cannot follow you down here. That is the entire point. Go where they physically cannot fit.
@DeepDishEnjoyer 1) ew, imagine anyone even associating you with a subreddit. Gross
2) lol quitter
3) Monte Carlo sims are unadulterated arbitrary bullshit
4) the correct term is “full-time intellectual”
5) “Whatever you do every day becomes work.” something I like to say.
The problem with calling bottlenecks in the AI buildout is that everyone seems to think bottlenecks are easy and obvious but this is based on markovian assumptions.
The world is non-markovian.
SK Hynix Q1 26 Earnings:
• Sales: ₩52.58T (est ₩53.60T)
• Operating Profit: ₩37.61T (est ₩35.7T)
• Net Income: ₩40.33T (est ₩29.39T)
• Sees Q2 NAND Bit Growth At Mid-Teens % Q/Q
• Sees Q2 DRAM Bit Growth At High Single-Digit % Q/Q
LPs will quiver at the thought of holding direct public stock in one of the top 500 businesses of all time.
But fight each other to invest alongside a posh 28 year old acquiring a <$5M EBITDA elevator services business.
My favorite part of all this is how we’re crying about Iran and their control over international waters while we blockade Cuba and that somehow isn’t the same thing