Black Moon's Almanack

#Bitcoin

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

-inflation expectations are well-anchored, and they are currently in a favorable position

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Big picture the most important forecast revisions this year have been the expectations for stronger growth and lower unemployment.

See the history of the FOMC's expectations for growth in 2021:

Sep 2020: 4.0%
Dec 2020: 4.2%
Mar 2021: 6.5%
Jun 2021: 7.0%

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

-Powell: we expect to see increases in supply over coming months, and inflation to move down

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

-Fed will provide advanced notice before changing asset purchases

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

Powell: Inflation oculd turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect longer-term inflation expectations appear boradly consistent with Fed goal

-would be prepared to adjust policy if inflation expectation moved too high

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

FOMC:
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged
2.Fed Official sees rates increasing in 2022
3. Fed forecast 2 possible hikes by end of 2023

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

This NFP is noise & will be forgotten in 2 months. What isn't noise is China's trade data, which point to a massive current account surplus, which in Q1 was way above history. We are flagging a 10% undervaluation of the RMB. This is the biggest imbalance in the global economy...

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

517

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

3/31 8:15 am ADP payroll employment report (consensus +550k, last +117k, GS +575k)
Reflecting strong underlying job growth and a boost from lower initial jobless claims. # Economic data releases this week #Economics Research

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

4/1 9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 59, last 59)

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

Thursday 8:30 am Initial jobless claims, week ended March 27 (consensus 680k,GS 690k, last 684k)
Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 20 (consensus 3,775k, last 3,870k)

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

10 am pending home sales, February (consensus -2.9%, Gs -5%, last -2.8) Estimating that pending home sales declined by 5 in February

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

9:45 am Chicago PMI, March(consensus 60, last 59.9, GS 61) Estimating taht the Chicago PMI increased by 1.5pt to 61 in March, reflecting improvement in other manufacturing surveys and a continued boost from the supplier deliveries component. #Economics

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

@RealTaonism Yes! exactly!

[Black Moon's Almanack @FooledBlackMoon]

If something's completely predictable, there's zero information. But if something's completely random, you need information about everything. It's counterintuitive, but gibberish contains more information than great literature.