Football Edge AI

The scoreline lies. AI-powered statistical analysis of the Championship —
the most competitive league in football.
Daily insights | Deep dives | Derby Fan

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

📊 We have a new focus.

We're going deep on the Championship — the most statistically
interesting and underanalysed league in football.

Daily data. xG breakdowns. The numbers behind the table.
Derby fan.

Follow if you want to see the Championship differently. 🏆

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@pnefc Graham Alexander inherits a better side than twenty-third suggests: thirteenth on chances created and conceded. The catch is that both ends leak. Eight goals from 11.7, fifteen conceded from 10.9.

#PNE

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

A question for Millwall supporters, because the numbers won't settle it. Chances created like a promotion side, a defence conceding three more than the shots against it are worth, and eleventh in the table. Which half of that do you think settles down first?

#Millwall

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Size of Nico O’Reilly 😳 looks absolute massive against some of these Spain players! #NationsLeague

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

September ends with the Championship 7.2 goals ahead of its chances, 277 scored against 269.8 expected, and the break freezes that until October. Eight games for most clubs. I keep expecting league-wide finishing to sit nearer zero than this, and so far it hasn't.

#EFL

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Cardiff are twenty-first in the table and seventh on the underlying numbers, the widest gap in the division, and nearly all of it is two men. Yousef Salech has two goals from chances worth 5.2, Ollie Tanner none from 2.0. That is -5.2 of Cardiff's -5.3 finishing.

#CardiffCity

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@BBCMOTD 100%. By then it’s just 4 teams who still don’t really care enough to play full strength sides, and making it drag out over two legs is just unnecessary.

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Preston have been given permission to speak to Graham Alexander, and whoever takes it inherits a better side than twenty-third suggests: thirteenth on chances created and conceded. The catch is that both ends leak. Eight goals from 11.7, fifteen conceded from 10.9.

#PNE

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Nobody talks about Portsmouth. They are 19th, but only Wolves allow fewer chances, they have a game in hand, and on the underlying numbers they are 12th. I think they are better than the table says. Does it feel like that watching them?

#Pompey #Wolves

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@JimmyRamBelieve Last seen grabbing a young fan by the throat? Sorry end for him, almost had cult hero status with us until the injuries kicked in

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Norwich are the only club yet to draw a game, eight played, and their matches average over four goals. The reason is at the back: 17 conceded from chances worth 12.4, the widest such gap in the league. They create like the top half and defend like the bottom three.

#NCFC

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

West Ham create more than anybody, 18.0 expected goals, so you would assume the surplus over their 22 goals sits with the forwards. More than a third of it is Konstantinos Mavropanos, a centre-back, four goals from chances worth 2.5. Defenders rarely keep that up.

#WHUFC

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@MillwallFC Second in the league for chances created, eleventh in the table. Millwall are the side I would expect to climb most after the break, though it is both ends leaking a little rather than just the finishing.

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Nineteen days without a Championship match and I don't know what to do with myself. While we wait: whose start do you believe in least? The numbers push me toward Stoke, 13 goals from 8.4 expected, but I would rather hear it from people who actually watch them.

#SCFC #EFL

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@SheikhRams1884 Yeah, I’d love to have the stats, we’d no doubt be top which is why I’m still giving Eustace a pass. International break probs come at the right time..

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Derby's trouble is not that the table has been harsh. Their 14.9 expected goals against is the highest in the division by more than a goal, with 8.3 made at the other end. Twenty-second is about where the chances put them.

#DCFC

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Swansea are top and I don't think anyone quite believes it, myself included. Six conceded in eight is the fewest in the league, from chances worth 9.6, so they let in a good deal less than is created against them. Keeper, probably...

#Swans

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@OfficialBWFC Four goals from about 1.1 expected is the best finishing of anyone in the round by a distance. Brilliant afternoon. The season xG only moved 8.3 to 9.4 though, so the chances need to follow.

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

@WBA West Brom managed 0.3 expected goals at Molineux, the lowest single-team figure of the entire round 😬

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

The Championship has now scored 277 goals from 269.8 expected, so the division as a whole is running about seven goals ahead of the chances it is making. Before this round it was essentially nothing. Eight rounds is too few to call it, but it is what I'll watch.

#EFL

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Charlton were 6th and the expected goals had them 22nd. West Brom were 4th and the numbers had them 16th.
Both lost this weekend.

Every game that put a side the underlying table rates against one it doesn't went the same way: three wins, three draws, no defeats.

[Football Edge AI @FootballEdgeAI]

Really interesting reading of the Championship under and over performers this season based on expected goal difference (xGD?!)

Any real surprises? I didn’t expect to see WBA so low..