Aidan Morrison

Researching energy and defence. Physics and data science background. Happy getting into the weeds.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

This is the story of how a fund chaired by former Labor PM Julia Gillard acquired a wind farm project just six days before Labor Energy Minister Chris Bowen underwrote its future revenues with taxpayer money.

Today we've learned Julia's fund is trying to flip it. For a profit.

HMC Capital's 'Energy Transition Fund' rushed to acquire the Neoen Victoria portfolio. They hadn't even raised any money in their fund. They closed with almost a billion dollars worth of borrowed money and IOU's.

Less than a week later, Chris Bowen announced Kentbruck Wind Farm to be successful in the first round of the Capacity Investment Scheme. My rough calculations suggest they will receive something like a billion dollars from taxpayers (and maybe much more) over 15 years.

Sweet deal. A billion dollars of fancy financial monopoly money one week. A billion dollars of promised taxpayer dollars the next.

I want to emphasise that I have no evidence of anything illegal or improper taking place. Rather, I want to point out how odious and repugnant the official, proper, legal business of renewable energy has become.

Yesterday Chris Bowen announced he wanted to supersize the CIS subsidy scheme, yet again.

Today Ross Garnaut seemed to cheer this on, whilst pointing out "There are now virtually no new investment commitments for solar and wind generation that do not have CIS or other Government underwriting,"

What happened to a sense of propriety? Since when do we celebrate people rushing to put their snouts in the trough? Or rushing to fill the trough even higher?

Unlike the UK who publish a 'going rate' for technology subsidies, our renewables are subsidised through a secret tender process. Every project gets to ask for whatever revenue they want to proceed. @AEMO_Energy facilitates a secret beauty pageant, where they award points for things like indigenous participation or community engagement, alongside financial value.

And Chris Bowen makes the final call.

The bids remain secret. There's no cap to the pay-outs. Since AEMO is a private company, there is no scope for an FOI request, and AEMO aren't not subject to parliamentary oversight through Senate Estimates.

So no-one can ever prove an allegation that Bowen has bestowed special favour on a friend's project if that was what he did. But equally, he can never prove that he selected strictly according to merit. We are just expected to trust the black-box of Bowen's subsidies.

So I'm going to say out loud, with full voice, that I hope everyone can agree on:

If this is what the future of 'clean energy' looks like in Australia, it looks absolutely FILTHY.

Any firm that talks about ESG seriously should start taking the "G" a bit more seriously and steer clear of projects that thrust their snouts into Bowen's hopelessly opaque, bottomless trough of government funds.

Or at the very least, purge their boards and senior leadership of all the former Labor staffers, donors, and industry lobbyists who have had a hand in designing the trough, and filling it up.

The reality is that there are no natural profits to be made in generating renewable electricity in Australia.

Every dollar of profit in this industry is really a cheque signed by a politician, with Chris Bowen signing all the biggest cheques, worth untold billions, in the next three years.

It's all legal. It's all official. And it's absolutely obscene.
Mega-thread below.
(It'll come in stages)
1/

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

I dream of a world where political leaders in opposition applied this kind of determined scrutiny to our energy institutions in Australia.

[Claire Coutinho @ClaireCoutinho]

It is extraordinary that NESO’s takeaway is that the core allegations made by the whistleblowers are unsubstantiated.

As I’ve always said, the core allegation is that the electricity grid is not being run securely. In that respect, the Eversheds report is utterly damning.

Not only does it say that renewables are making our grid more difficult to manage, but it says that several engineers in the control room profoundly disagree with NESO management’s claim that the grid was secure on 23rd June.

There are multiple serious problems highlighted - from a culture of managers only wanting to hear ‘good news’, to poor record keeping, and, most concerningly, a reluctance to action complaints from engineers because of the need to 'keep stakeholders happy'.

In other words, managers are failing to improve the security of our electricity grid because keeping Ministers in DESNZ happy is seen as more important.

NESO's Chief Executive earns close to £1 million a year and the whole organisation costs the better half of a billion pounds to run. The country and billpayers deserve better.

Government should be holding NESO to account, but instead, Ministers spent their time attacking me for raising the control room engineers' concerns and for making sure that any kind of investigation took place at all.

If this had been washed under the carpet, then where would we be?

A grid that is increasingly at risk and Ministers who, frankly, preferred to be asleep at the wheel rather than to do their jobs and protect our electricity supply.

With regards to the engineers' concerns on corporate affairs and record keeping, Eversheds did not give a clean bill of health as NESO is claiming. They found that a culture of 'reputational sensitivity' does indeed affect operational decision-making, and recommended several changes to correct significant failures in record keeping practices.

While I am on maternity leave, the Conservative team will continue to press the Government on this issue, because the bottom line is this: if we cannot trust NESO management to be honest about our ability to keep the lights on, how can they stay in their roles?

I look forward to the release of Ofgem's investigation on whether the grid was run securely on 23rd June. But we do now know that the control room strongly feel that it wasn’t.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Looking forward to seeing everyone in Scone tomorrow night!

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Looking forward to this event in Scone next week, Thursday 22nd of October.

See link below.

https://t.co/1SXgpSPYsW

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

This is what you get with 59 advisors and no real policy ideas to pursue. They devote their capacity to petty politics instead.

[Lisa @Lisa9Sophia]

“They are pretty desperate”

When asked about the Dirt File, Helen Haines said Labor were “pretty desperate”

When you read over the requests put to journalists - in truth the PMs Office was very detailed and gave specific instructions to the press pack

The media had clear expectations of the work the PM was looking for

And it raises serious questions about media and government integrity, under Labor

Story Credit: The Daily Mail

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Awesome debate within the nuclear industry.

[Nick Touran @whatisnuclear]

However, in the water-cooled reactor's defense, you can build smaller ones that can be shipped by rail or barge no problem. Thick pressure vessels double as physical protection and robust containment. Sodium metal becomes ~30,000x more radioactive than water during operation and must be kept hot to keep liquid with trace heating and insulation, challenging maintenance. Also, unlike sodium, water doesn't chemically burn when it touches air, water, or concrete.

Pros and cons all around, and the full story is never simple. I'm a big sodium fan and very much love Aalo. But water-cooled reactors get beat up on wayyy too much for how good they are.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

@arthurscarfukin Interesting idea... Certainly they have pretty substantial slabs prepared to be mounted on permanently. So the possibility of some bitumen being affected is... credible. Would be interesting to get a time-laps of this spot over coming months.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

So this is a transformer. Heading to Golbourn River solar farm apparently. Apparently the whole package including cradle is around 600tonnes. The cradle just lowers the whole thing down and sits it on the road when they break overnight.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

@PaulMan70983272 Not really, no.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

@PaulMan70983272 yes, that's done now.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Another “should be news” story… the workers camps planned in Central West Orana are quietly being consolidated onto the big one at Merotherie that belongs to ACEREZ who are building the transmission. Wind and solar developers are being invited in too, and that camp is expanding.

Consolidation is unsurprising given the social license has collapsed. Fewer objectors. But this has big implications for road traffic, and the locals nearby, who I’ve spoken to. But this is happening oh-so-quietly.

And crucially, this opens a window for potential cross-subsidisation of wind and solar projects from the transmission build. All these projects haven’t reached financial close, and won’t without loads of government support. So carefully concealed subsidies is what we expect, and this could be one of them.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Bit by bit… the admissions of climate overreach come creeping out.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Germany and France join forces to officially scrap the EU's 2035 climate neutrality goal for cars.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

@rkc_62 Exactly.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

New details here…

Tumut 3 is Snowy Hydro, which is owned by the federal government.

And this is extremely aggressive bidding behaviour, which exploited vulnerabilities and technicalities in the market to grab a bucket of money from consumers, almost certainly contributing to the seriousness of this price spike.

They bid at deeply negative prices, ensuring they got switched on, ramping up counterprice flows, which they would know would lead to more constraints, leading to a severe price spike.

They they altered the rate at which they could ramp down their power. So once they got switched on (with an ultra-low bid) they used technical constraints to ensure they wouldn’t get switched off while prices were high.

Oh for some serious energy journalists. What an epic story.

Heavy sigh.

Are taxpayers happy with their investment gaming the market to return, pushing up prices to produce super profits to Snowy Hydro?

I guess that’s how Snowy 2.0 gets funded. To save the embarrassment of the federal government shovelling cash into the entity, everyone looks the other way while they play an ultra-aggressive game to gouge the market.

[Ben Beattie @EnergyWrapAU]

Odd dispatch outcomes for the NSW wind fleet coincident with the price spike.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

So all is as one would expect... These admissions are coming. But they will be too little, too late, to keep the lights on.

Soon there'll be an admission that Eraring will extend to 2032, and the others will be pushed out well past their planned dates just after that. 3/3

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

So this week NSW energy minster has commenced a process to procure (at any cost) 1.5GW of "firming" by 2033-34.

But this incorrectly cites the ESOO as saying that's the year when problems emerge.

Actually, unserved energy spikes three years earlier, just after the first major coal station closes (Eraring). They're assuming things only need a lot of help when the second two close, four years later.

This is... concerning. 1/

https://t.co/kWQ1tS1tCw

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Ok, time to unpack key charts/assumptiosn and findings of the ESOO. Electricity Statement of Opportunities. Released by the market operator, AEMO.

The key takeway is that things fall appart soon after we close coal, specificially Eraring, as marked.

NSW is first to fall apart.

This chart is "committed and anticipated" developments. Anticipated still includes some that haven't reached financial close, so there's still some optimism there.

But this is the most-credible scenario they model. 1/

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

They've specifically ruled out batteries... must "not rely on energy consumed from the grid."

That means they've read this section of the ESOO I pointed out on page 89. There's not enough ENERGY to charge up the batteries, or even pump water up hill. 2/

https://t.co/jho4rMeMTH

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Now why is close timing of Snowy 2.0 units, with perfect foresight, in perfect co-ordination with massive other batteries so, so critical?

Becuase later AEMO tells us that the water in the dams runs out. And that's when blackouts start.

Not only that, short-term storage of GAS is also running out, and sometimes even COAL.

That's basically proof that they system of running in a completely unrealistic way.. With gas and coal being pushed flat-chat, in conjuction with battery storage (and Snowy 2.0) to get every last inch of stored energy locked away long in advance for future crunches.

And then they still run out. Of ENERGY. To put into storage. 15/

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Looking forward to this event in Scone next week, Thursday 22nd of October.

See link below.

https://t.co/1SXgpSPYsW

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

@RetiredADF No, haven’t!

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

This grinds my gears so much. Vanity projects and global poppycocking polluting the policy-making process in Australia.

This EV charger rule change request is the easiest hard-reject on economic grounds. But because it’s Bowen’s, and it’s COP time, the AEMC is indulging him.

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Ok I'm not done... Turns out this EV charger stuff is a massive case of tail-wagging the dog.

Chris Bowen's using this initiative as Exhibit A in electrification reports he's commissioned as part of COP negotiations he's "President" of.

Really sickening. 1/

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Good take. Just missed the 800GWh, or about 10% of the renewable share, that came from hydro. Not wind and solar.

We’ve had hydro for donkeys years. These days we’re using less of it… to make more room in the grid for wind and solar.

[Peter Lyndon-James @PeterPerthWA]

"RENEWABLES BEAT FOSSIL FUELS." HERE'S WHAT THE MINISTER LEFT OUT.

Chris Bowen posted a chart this week. Last month, renewables generated more electricity on the national grid than fossil fuels. Only the second time in history.

The numbers are right. Here's what the chart doesn't show you.

A third of his "renewables" came off your roof. Solar made 4,780 GWh in September, and 2,975 GWh of that was rooftop panels Australians bought with their own money. Take that out, and the grid-scale renewables the government backs produced 5,880 GWh. Fossil fuels produced 8,762.

They're still well ahead.

Both "historic" months were in spring. October last year and September this year are low-demand months with mild weather, long days and strong wind. His chart only shows Septembers. Over the winter quarter, AEMO had renewables at 42.1%.

And the margin? 8,855 to 8,762. That's 50.3% to 49.7%.

His "national grid" doesn't include Western Australia. Here in WA, the renewable share went backwards last quarter, gas generation rose 27% and wholesale prices rose 30%.

Now the part that matters at your kitchen table.

On 10 days in September, the average market price for rooftop solar power went negative. There was more power than the market wanted. AEMO says wholesale prices on the national grid fell 47% in the June quarter.

Yet the Bureau of Statistics says household electricity rose 22.4% in the year to June 2026.

So if power is that much cheaper to make, why are you paying more for it? Where did the saving go? And where's the $275 off your bill the Prime Minister promised by 2025?

"We've come a long way," says the Minister. Just not on your bill.

Cold Hard Facts. Corrected when wrong. No misinformation.

What's your thoughts…?

Peter Lyndon-James 🇦🇺

Sources:
Chris Bowen, LinkedIn, Oct 2026; Open Electricity Dispatch, October 2025; Open Electricity data via PV Tech, September 2026 solar output; AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q2 2026, 28 Jul 2026; ABS CPI June 2026; Albanese press conference, 3 Dec 2021.

[John Stossel @JohnStossel]

Researcher @curryja was once a “rock star” in the climate change movement.

Then she discovered that some scientists conspire to hide data.

“A lot of really ugly things,” she tells me.

She reveals the “manufactured consensus” about climate change:

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Here's the thread on Sydney Ring South for reference.
https://t.co/SxxYM6QUEV

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

When Jesus said "the first will be last and the last will be first" he wasn't giving instructions on how to build out transmission lines.

And yet... In NSW...

This is the story of Sydney Ring South.

Probably the most urgently needed transmission line. Approved to be... delayed??!

Until? Ummm... sometime... after 2033? We'll kick off the first stage of planning and approvals next year.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm firmly opposed to building excessive transmission to facilitate an enormous build-out of weather-dependent generation that has no hope of providing reliable electricity at anything the like the cost of centralised, thermal generation for baseload.

This isn't a giddyup.
This is exhibit A in an epic cluster....

As it happens, a large chunk of wind energy that is ALREADY BUILT in NSW is stuck in a pocket that often can't reach the Sydney load basin when needed most.

At times, we have gigawatts of electricity flowing in the WRONG DIRECTION, exporting electricity from NSW to Victoria, when their spot price is negative, and ours is very positive because we can't get enough power into Sydney, which drives up costs to consumers.

And, here's the kicker:
This project was specifically requested by Transgrid, @Transgrid_AU (the regulated NSW transmission company) to be made 'actionable' in the 2024 ISP framework, after the consultation draft was published without it, because... reasons... big rush.

The Market Operator, @AEMO_Energy, obliged.

And this year, when the process kicked off in the 2024 ISP was meant to deliver its first major regulatory milestone, Transgrid then asked the Regulator to push the deadline back almost a year.

Buckle up... 1/

[Aidan Morrison @FootnotesGuy]

Great chart Ben, thanks for tracking this down. No, it's not odd at all. This is a crystal-clear example of planning failures in NSW.

Because quite a bit of that wind power was flowing to Victoria, against price, the wind was switched off. To prevent the "Negative Residue", ie interstate bills that no-one agreed to pay, from racking up.

And then this caused a price spike in NSW, because there was now none of that low price wind dispatched.

This wouldn't be a problem if our transmission was planned in the right sequence, with Sydney Ring South being built first, which would fix this problem between all of NSW's wind fleet (outside Canberra) which can't reach Sydney. Then HumeLink could follow, Project EnergyConnect, etc.

But we're building things in exactly the wrong direction. So this problem won't be solved until the mid-2030s.

The failure on AEMO's part to manage the construction of transmission according to an orderly plan is catastrophic.

[Ben Beattie @EnergyWrapAU]

Odd dispatch outcomes for the NSW wind fleet coincident with the price spike.