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[K @FootyAnalyst617]

The Championship mid-season review.

The table tells one story, but xPts tells another.

xPts = where teams should be based on the quality of chances created and conceded (xG), game by game.

It strips out finishing luck, goalkeeping variance and chaos.
#EFL #championship

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@kayakaynak97 Spot on! Proper context instead of lazy assumptions. The goal-kick rule change and tactical shifts matter. Good to see someone actually looking at why the numbers have changed rather than just running with the easy narrative. Centre-Backs play higher, they carry to split lines.

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@OliviaBuzaglo More passes for CBs doesn’t mean negative football. It’s not stat-padding or slowing play. With structured build-up, higher lines and CBs stepping in to break pressure, they’re starting attacks. The numbers show a role shift, not a decline. Context matters.

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@Tgarratt10 More passes for CBs doesn’t automatically mean cautious football. With structured build-up, higher lines and defenders stepping in to break lines, they’re central to progression now. Context matters.

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@sufferingspurs Lazy narrative. It’s not just “sideways & backwards.” Since Pep & Klopp, teams build from the back, hold higher lines, and defenders are far more comfortable on the ball. More goal-kick build-ups + line-breaking passes into midfield = more CBs in the top pass charts. It’s evolved

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@Olushegz

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

xPts doesn’t predict the future, it shows where pressure is building.

Who do you think breaks the model… and why? 👀
#Championship #efl #eflchampionship

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

📊 Championship check-in after ~29 games.

Using actual points + xPts (xG-based) + home/away fixtures to project how this season should finish, not how it feels right now.

Thread 🧵👇
#EFL #Championship #eflchampionship

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

The Championship mid-season review.

The table tells one story, but xPts tells another.

xPts = where teams should be based on the quality of chances created and conceded (xG), game by game.

It strips out finishing luck, goalkeeping variance and chaos.
#EFL #championship

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

Projected Top 10

1 Coventry
2 Ipswich
3 Middlesbrough
4 Millwall
5 Watford
6 Birmingham
7 Sheff Utd
8 Southampton
9 Bristol City
10 Hull

Process over narratives across 46 games.
#eflchampionship #championship #efl

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

People forget: Mourinho was built at Barça. Pep getting the job he wanted lit the fuse. 2010–13 El Clásico wasn’t just football, it was personal.

[Barça Buzz @Barca_Buzz]

Once upon a time 👀

In the year 2000, Jose Mourinho gave an interview after coaching a Barça match in the Copa del Rey round of 16.

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@Claytonlumsdon_ @TheMackemRacer agree with you, it’s on how the manager has set your lot up to play. Survival is what Sunderland need at this point and they look more than there on achieving that, building strong foundations again to compete in the Prem

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

The Premier League mid-season review (MD20).

The table tells one story. xPts (expected points) tells another.
xPts = where teams should be based on the quality of chances created & conceded (xG), game by game.
It strips out finishing luck, goalkeeping variance & chaos.

#PL #EPL

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@Claytonlumsdon_ @TheMackemRacer The 3-0 loss against Brentford shown where youse are at…

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@littleronwhitt Time will tell…

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@Ian_Crow3 @TheMackemRacer @UnderTheLight73 Fair point, the defenders and structure are good

Over-performance isn’t always obvious watching games. It usually just means the margins have gone their way more often than not.

If performances hold, results match. If they dip, xPts is saying there isn’t much cushion

[K @FootyAnalyst617]

@wdt0_0 xPts just helps show where results might be running a bit hot or cold compared to performances.

Sunderland could easily be around 12th–13th on the xPts table, which feels pretty fair for how they’ve played.