ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰

"Foresee the Data. Index the move."
On-chain evidence over hype @ForeDex_Proof
Founder @mignoletkr
Official @ForeDex_Global

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

重大新闻：ForeDex今日正式与全球数字资产安全和硬件钱包公司OneKey达成赞助协议。 我们衷心感谢OneKey团队在ForeDex平台发展初期就认可其潜力和价值。作为“ForeDex杰出分析师”项目的官方赞助商， OneKey将在年底 为排名靠前的分析师提供奖金奖励！
@OneKeyHQ
@OneKeyCN

[ForeDex @ForeDex_Global]

ForeDex has officially secured a sponsorship agreement today with “OneKey,” a global digital asset security and hardware wallet company.

We would like to sincerely thank the OneKey team for recognizing the potential and value of ForeDex, even at this early stage of our platform.

As the official sponsor of the “ForeDex Recognized Analyst” program, OneKey will support prize rewards for the top-ranked analysts at the end of the year.

@OneKeyHQ @OneKeyCN

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

https://t.co/E3tkOh2HMz

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

今日大鲸鱼指标看跌

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

目前比特币市场呈现两极分化的形势。一方面，鲸鱼和长期持有者的持有量持续增加，吸收抛压。另一方面，机构和ETF资金在持续卖出。
也许各位还记得去年最后一轮上涨时以太坊的单边行情，彼时场外ETF资金的流入非常狂暴，而链上沉睡多年的以太坊频频出货。最终的情况大家也知道了，以太坊始终没有突破48k这个历史高位。
所以这一次，我仍然选择相信原生巨鲸的力量。但是要注意的是，场外ETF的购买力仍然对于比特币主升浪的帮助是巨大的。
��此，策略简单明了：激进的投资者可以在55k到60k之间开始执行DCA买入计划。保守的投资者可以在48k到55k之间开始执行DCA买入计划。尤其需要注意的是，DCA策略是非常左侧的交易，要做好长时间的持有和浮亏准备。而所谓的牛市回归，还很远。
BTW，就我个人的观点，60k大概率不是一个底部区间，我不会在60k以上买入现货。

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

总结，从MM的角度，若MM买入动能以及MM净买入动能两者能发生同时看涨的共振最佳。

[Crypto₿ @_InvResearch]

最好的分享并不是给读者带了某种结论，而是启发了读者的思考，即，能引人深思的分享便是好的分享，比起直接看结论，我更注重其逻辑推理过程。

受@ForeDex_Global平台数据和@mignoletkr推文观点的启发，我对机构 $BTC买入动能进行了一些思考和研究，从更高时间框架上对机构进行分类分析。

1 最大的机构需求方来自于ETF/DAT机构，这些机构通过购入ETF或DAT股票来间接持有BTC。所以
（1）当前阶段，观察ETF净流入转正并持续非常关键。
（2）Strategy是最大的DAT，观察MSTR/BTC溢价率，可以分析DAT机构的���入动能。
如上两项数据非常容易拿到，此处不详细展开分析。

2 非ETF/DAT机构的需求，这些机构更多地通过OTC或者传统加密市场做市商购入BTC，而不是通过中心化交易所。而这一点是被很多人所忽略的部分，我认为这也是@ForeDex_Global平台的核心。今天我想从传统加密做市商的角度展开做一下分析。

3 图1，从MM买入动能分析
（1）数字1所示阶段，价格新高，MM买入动能新高，无背离。
（2）数字2所示阶段，价格新高，MM买入动能反而降低，为看跌背离。
（3）数字3所示阶段，价格新低，但MM买入动能未新低，为抛压动能不足，为看涨背离，后面迎来一波反弹。
（4）数字4所示阶段，价格新低，MM买入动能跟随走低，为熊市趋势延续。
故： 从MM买入动能角度分析，是一个相对消极的信号，当前依然处于看跌阶段，反转点在于买入动能能够超过2月份的买入动能。

4 图2，从MM净买入动能分析
（1）数字1所示阶段，价格新高，MM净买入动能反而降低，为看跌背离。
（2）数字2所示阶段，价格新低，MM净买入动能未跟随新低，为看涨背离，后面迎来一波反弹。
（3）数字3所示阶段，价格新低，MM净买入动能亦新低，为熊市趋势延续。
（4）数字4所示阶段，价格新低，但MM净买入动能没有跟随新低，为看涨背离。
故： 从MM净买入动能角度分析，是一个积极的信号，在价格新低的同时，非ETF/DAT的净买入需求反而超过了2月份。

总结，从MM的角度，若MM买入动能以及MM净买入动能两者能发生同时看涨的共振最佳。

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

每日市场随笔供您查阅
链上筹码还没有看到全面失控。

[加密貝兒ღ @0xGummyBear]

📌贝儿每日市场随笔

现在的市场情绪真的很脆弱，中东局势反复，加上美国强劲的就业数据又把加息预期拉了回来，亚洲科技股今��也遭遇重挫，韩股甚至一度大跌触发熔断。这种“地缘风险+流动性收紧+AI交易降温”的压力，也延续到了$BTC。恐慌指标仍维持在极度恐惧区间，不过好在价格虽然跌到62K附近，链上筹码还没有看到全面失控。

今日相关数据：

​🍇@ForeDex_Global 的LTH/STH Supply Ratio仍持续走高，短期筹码被洗掉后，筹码还是在向长期持有者沉淀。搭配STH SOPR再次回到1附近，短线虽然有认赔压力，但目前还不像全面投降。

​🍇LTH Supply in Loss %上升到约40%以上，从周期角度来看目前已经进入深度压力区，但不代表行情会马上出现反转，而是要留意LTH SOPR/LTH NRPL有没有同步恶化。如果恶化代表长期持有者也在认赔割肉，目前价格仍不是底；如果稳住，则代表进入筹码换手累积区。

​🍇ETF仅保持了一天的少量流入后，又再次净流出325.70M，美国机构仍然处于退出趋势，但Coinbase溢价差有所回暖。代表部分美国资金在这个价位愿意入场，然而整体需求仍然不明显。

​🍇从清算地图&资金费率来看，空头在$64,000～$65,000的区间开始有明显清算堆积，需要留意插针清算。

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

最后的等待阶段!
如果您准备执行DCA抄底策略，这篇周记值得阅读

[比特虎 (Waiting) @btc_tigerx]

📊【6.8比特虎周记】最后的等待阶段，准备好了吗？

兄弟们，上周20%的跌幅应该很兴奋吧，但是别高兴太早，预计这周塞勒会买一些大饼兑现一下之前说的卖一点，买回卖的几倍几十倍的言论，正如6号引贴所说的，这次破6W力度不够强势，短期会有日线级别的超跌反弹，经过周末两天的情绪缓和大饼已经从59k反弹4000刀到了63k，勿过度看跌

回到 #BTC 复盘上

消息面（宏观+资金面）：
核心催化��：周五美国超预期强劲非农就业数据直接点燃风险资产抛售潮。强劲就业数据被市场解读为美联储可能推迟降息甚至加息的信号，导致美股、债券、加密同步大跌，市场进入极度恐惧区

现货ETF：上周继续大幅净流出约16亿，已是连续多周/多日流出（部分数据称9连日流出、过去两三周累计超40亿美元）。这是2026年以来最长的持续赎回期，直接逆转了年初以来的累计流入趋势

技术面：
上周大饼收73611——63332，已经4连跌，最低杀到72402——59130，跌幅14%，振幅近20%，收的1/3于实体带下影线的K线，意味着下方买盘力度还是挺强的不可忽视，日线级别勿过度看跌，不过STH已经斜率继续加大向下交叉TMP
随着跌破前底60K,MA200的熊市历史五次最强压制的互道煞��时刻已确认，现在完全可以说80k附近满仓进去的全是FOMO怪（涨了看涨，跌了看跌），都是自以为是少数人的多数人

然后更新一下关注的几个数据（新增挖矿平均成本）：
MA200：80410——79382 ——78479
STH：77766——76512 ——73878
TMP：78207——77946 ——77310
RP：54161——53983 ——53588
LTH：48623——48714 ——48870
CVDD：46043——46105 ——46171
平均挖矿成本：44360——46870——45810
BTC：76666——70850——63300

回到数据上，根据 @ForeDex_Global 数据显示，截至目前市场最聪明的资金（LTH）成本大概48870有所提高，新增的挖矿除去运营等成本均价45810，前段时间呼声很高且被杀的超惨的负资金费率，现在已连续13天为正了，继续等信号，敬请期待

最后上周提醒兄弟们要开始准备好子弹了，接下来的世界杯时间会随时到达目标区上边沿，要开始兴奋起来了，继续埋伏！

兄弟们，下周见！！62950✊✊

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

https://t.co/WNXcvhEsO9

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

链上长期持有者的供应损失已经达到了历史最高位，LTH群体的投降阶段在路上了吗？

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

https://t.co/E3tkOh2HMz

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

近十天左右的时间，比特币ETF迎来了非常剧烈的抛售，六万的支撑位说实话岌岌可危。
这是两个免费数据，注册即可查看🫡

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

那些未能识别顶部的框架，如今却被用来识别底部。
这个方法在ETF时代真的行之有效吗？

[mignolet @mignoletkr]

❗️Let's Talk About Something Serious
"What concerns me most is that many of the datasets now being used to call a bottom are largely the same datasets that were previously used to predict last year's market top."

The market continues to move in the direction I have been concerned about.
Bitcoin is barely holding the $60,000 level, but personally, I do not believe this area will hold for very long.
Since last week, I have repeatedly stated that conditions are becoming increasingly serious, and my view has not changed.
Today, I want to discuss two major concerns I have about the current market, as well as some thoughts on how market data should be interpreted in the post-ETF era.

✅Concern #1: Liquidity Conditions Are Extremely Weak

liquidity flows that became especially important after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF continue to deteriorate and are now at some of their weakest levels.
So what about the liquidity indicators that were important before ETF?
Unfortunately, they are not telling a different story.

If market conditions were deteriorating while major players were quietly accumulating positions in the background, the situation would be different.

In that case, one could argue that the classic idea of "buying when others are fearful" was actually being put into practice.

That would be a constructive signal.
However, the data is not showing that behavior.
Objectively speaking, conditions continue to worsen.

✅Concern #2: Investor Psychology Remains Surprisingly Optimistic

The bigger issue is that many retail investors do not seem to view the situation this way.
While liquidity conditions and market data continue to deteriorate, the narrative being repeated across the market remains:

"Bitcoin has already fallen enough."
"Everyone is panicking, so this must be the bottom."
"Every crisis eventually becomes an opportunity."
"This is a buying zone."

I believe this is extremely important.

There is a significant disconnect between actual buying liquidity and what investors expect to happen.
In my experience, during periods of genuine fear, people do not openly talk about buying opportunities.

Instead, confidence disappears.

People become afraid even to discuss the possibility of a bottom.
Yet today, many participants continue to interpret the market through the lens of past experiences.
In other words, many still believe that the market remains within a predictable framework based on previous cycles.
To me, that is precisely what makes the situation more dangerous.

❗️Rethinking Data Interpretation After ETF Approval

✅1. Market Structure Has Changed Since ETF Approval

approval of Bitcoin ETF fundamentally changed trading behavior and market structure.
Those changes have also had a meaningful impact on on-chain data.

I recognized this shift last year and have been developing new datasets and analytical frameworks based on this new environment.

For more details, I recommend reading the ForeDex "Insight Report" referenced above.

The key point is simple:
Many datasets that historically carried a high level of reliability no longer behave the way they did in previous cycles.

Technical cycle indicators, on-chain cycle indicators, and market cycle indicators all produced results that differed significantly from historical expectations.
We saw this very clearly around last year's market top.

✅2. Think Back to Last Year's Market Top

At the time, the market was filled with discussions about the "Banana Zone."

Many investors built detailed plans around various cycle indicators:

"I'll sell when price reaches this level."
"Then I'll rotate into altcoins."
"Then I'll rebalance my portfolio."

These were not vague ideas.

People had specific roadmaps.

But did the market actually follow those expectations?

Not at all.

When I raised concerns about this at the time, the response was mostly criticism and dismissal.

Yet in the end, the market did not behave the way most participants expected.

✅3. If the Framework for Identifying Tops Has Changed

If ETF approval changed the way market tops should be identified, then our approach to interpreting data must also change.

If existing frameworks no longer work, new frameworks are needed.

If existing datasets no longer provide reliable answers, new datasets must be developed.

This is where the real problem begins.

✅4. We Are No Longer Looking for the Top — We Are Looking for the Bottom

Today, market participants are no longer trying to identify a top.
They are trying to identify a bottom.
And numerous arguments are now being presented to support bottom-calling narratives.

But here is the contradiction.

Many of the datasets currently being used to argue that a bottom is forming are largely the same datasets that were previously used to predict last year's market top.

This is what concerns me most.
If those datasets failed when identifying the top, then we must at least consider the possibility that they could also fail when identifying the bottom.
Yet the market largely ignores this possibility.

The assumption seems to be:
"They failed at the top, but they'll work at the bottom."

I believe that assumption is dangerous.

✅Conclusion

Taken together, market conditions continue to deteriorate.

Yet many investors continue building plans around datasets and frameworks that previously provided clear signals but ultimately failed when it mattered most.

That concerns me deeply.

Markets do not move according to our plans.

The same frameworks that failed to identify the top are now being reused to identify the bottom.

As retail investors become smarter, the dominant market participants become even more sophisticated, more strategic, and more capable of exploiting expectations.

The implication is straightforward.

Even if a major price shock occurs, the market is unlikely to unfold the way most participants currently expect.
In fact, when everyone is using similar frameworks and reaching similar conclusions, the probability of a larger shock may actually increase.

And even if the market eventually moves in the expected direction, there will likely be extreme volatility designed to shake investors out of their positions and cloud their judgment along the way.

We do not need to look very far back for evidence.
Even during the April–May period, the market repeatedly created one deception on top of another, constantly manipulating investor psychology.
And it worked.

If investors can be misled so effectively within a structure lasting only a few months, can we really be confident that a multi-year cycle will unfold exactly as the majority expects?

I am not convinced that it will.

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

https://t.co/E3tkOh2HMz

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

至今为止，这轮熊市还没有出现强力买入，耐心等待。

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

@Murphychen888 完全进入dca区域了，越跌越买

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

https://t.co/Nrz7z2DAEo

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

重大更新：我们平台新推出巨鲸钱包跟踪器功能。ForeDex Whale Alert追踪涉及1000个$BTC或以上的比特币交易，并使用人工智能辅助分类系统过滤掉已知的内部钱包转账。

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

116枚比特币的出售，潜在10423枚比特币的抛压，这次门头沟要添一把火吗？

[ForeDex_Proof @ForeDex_Proof]

📌 ForeDex Fact: Mt. Gox Repayment Activity Resumes

Two days ago, Bitcoin was transferred from Mt. Gox wallets into two newly created wallets.

Wallet A: 116 BTC
Wallet B: 10,423 BTC
Today, the 116 BTC was confirmed to have moved to Bitstamp.

The fact that Mt. Gox appears to have resumed parts of its repayment process is noteworthy on its own.

However, the more important point is this:

If the Wallet A(116 BTC) was transferred for repayment purposes, then the Wallet B(10,423 BTC) that was moved at the same time is now more likely to have been transferred for the same purpose.

This would also increase the probability that the larger amount could eventually be sent to an exchange as part of the repayment process.

For that reason, the wallet holding the 10,423 BTC is now the one that deserves the closest attention.

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

非常非常值得参考的观点：趋势的反转更需要看到强有力的买家强势介入。而目前来看，还没有出现。

[mignolet @mignoletkr]

Since late May, I have consistently stated that market conditions have been deteriorating, and so far, that trend has continued exactly as expected.

I have also repeatedly pointed out that the current market behavior is not materially different from what we saw at the market top last year or during the $80K ~ $90K range in January this year. In reality, the market continues to unfold in a very similar manner.

What concerns me most is the growing assumption that the market must be close to a bottom simply because prices have already fallen significantly and a considerable amount of time has passed.

This mindset is becoming increasingly dangerous.

Markets do not reverse simply because enough pain has been felt or enough time has gone by. They reverse when real demand returns and strong buyers step in.

Without meaningful buying pressure from the dominant market participants those who see crisis as opportunity the fact that prices have already declined substantially means very little on its own.

Think back to Bitcoin's rally.

"How can it possibly keep going up this much?"
"Surely it has to correct now."
Those arguments were repeated over and over again, yet the trend did not easily reverse.

The same logic should apply during a downtrend.

When the KOSPI was climbing higher and higher, very few people expected it to rise as much as it eventually did.

Trends do not change as easily as most people think.

If we set aside assumptions such as:

"It's already fallen enough."
"It's been correcting for long enough."

and instead focus on actual demand flows and investor psychology, I believe today's environment is not very different from what we saw at last year's market peak or during the $80K–$90K range in January.
At the moment, I do not see strong demand aggressively buying this decline as an opportunity.

To put it simply, the market is not showing the type of buying behavior that typically accompanies a meaningful reversal.

Objectively speaking, conditions continue to deteriorate.

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

长期持有���亏损供应量飙升，已经非常接近 2022 年熊市底部时的读数，或许这一轮破位下跌是最后的清洗。客观来看，价格还没有止跌的预期，也许我们需要等到这一轮熊市的第三次集体投降事件发生。会是微策略方面暴雷吗🧐

[Lukasz Wydra @lukasz_wydra]

Bitcoin (BTC) Update 📊

What a surge in this indicator! 🚀👀

I’ve been tracking it for a long time, but what is happening right now is particularly significant.

The Long-Term Hodler Supply in Loss metric is pushing to a new high, and it’s doing so very quickly. The indicator has now reached 6.19M.

That is well above the levels seen at the bear market bottoms of 2015 and 2019 📈

And it is now very close to the readings observed during the 2022 bear market bottom.

You already know what this means to me.

Interpret the indicator in your own way - or simply share it with others 🔥

@ForeDex_Global

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

https://t.co/E3tkOh2HMz

[ForeDex Hong Kong🇭🇰 @ForeDex_HK]

bitfinex的usdt交易对大单出逃严重（这个交易所的usdt交易对代表加密原生老牌资金）