ForecastEx

A fully integrated exchange and clearinghouse offering trading in Forecast Contracts

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

ForecastEx election-market accuracy at four points leading up to the 2026 midterms shows that the highest-priced candidate ultimately won in 92.23% of races one day before Election Day.

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

Election Day is almost here!

With the 2026 midterms approaching, ForecastEx markets are pricing key U.S. Senate races in Texas, Michigan, and Ohio. Which candidates will come out on top on November 3?

Explore Election markets on IBKR: https://t.co/NPM2pL85hA
Explore Election markets on Aries:
https://t.co/mBeOmavvdf
Explore Election markets on Lumina:
https://t.co/ITvPJXR3jN

[Patrick T. Brown @PatrickTBrown31]

Happy to get a few points across in this Business Insurance article on the growing role of prediction markets in institutional risk transfer:

"ForecastEx offers a 'more straightforward' structure than traditional weather derivatives and more efficient price discovery than parametric insurance, said Patrick Brown, head of climate analytics for Interactive Brokers."

https://t.co/VVQvhJF70q

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

What’s ahead this week on ForecastEx?

Explore the markets and make your forecast.

View ForecastEx markets on IBKR: https://t.co/7VCvw3B7kf

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

Tomorrow's stock index futures settlement is approaching. Where do you see the markets landing?

See how ForecastEx markets are pricing these outcomes ahead of October 23.

Explore index futures markets on Robinhood: https://t.co/4884iE1iEH
Explore index futures markets on Lumina: https://t.co/uNfm1RZHnv
Explore index futures markets on IBKR: https://t.co/tBKPHauQMB

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

Which party will win a majority in the US House of Representatives? Which party will control the US Senate?

See how ForecastEx markets are pricing the outcomes ahead of the November 3 elections.

View ForecastEx markets on IBKR: https://t.co/qlDc4JAkJV

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

What’s ahead this week on ForecastEx?

Explore the markets and make your forecast.

View ForecastEx markets on IBKR: https://t.co/7VCvw3BF9N

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

How hot will it get today?

ForecastEx Daily Temperature markets let you trade on the day’s high temperature across cities including Austin, Los Angeles, Miami and Chicago.

Explore Temperature markets on IBKR: https://t.co/zGaizh6HMW

Explore Temperature markets on Robinhood: https://t.co/2zmU2AsIzU

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

September inflation numbers come out tomorrow. What's your forecast?

Will US CPI exceed 3.6%? Will US Core CPI exceed 2.4%?

See how ForecastEx markets are pricing both outcomes ahead of the Consumer Price Index Report on October 14 at 7:30 AM CT.

View ForecastEx markets on IBKR: https://t.co/r2VEySRnXh

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

What’s ahead this week on ForecastEx?

Explore the markets and make your forecast.

View ForecastEx markets on IBKR: https://t.co/7VCvw3BF9N

[Interactive Brokers @IBKR]

What does the market expect for Canada's unemployment rate? Explore the probabilities before the data is released. https://t.co/MM5ClSKDAR

[Patrick T. Brown @PatrickTBrown31]

ForecastEx prediction market probabilities for Hurricane Isaias are appearing live on Bloomberg TV.

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

September Canada Unemployment is coming up.

Will Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.4% in September 2026? The ForecastEx market is currently pricing YES at 63¢.

The Labour Force Survey is scheduled for October 9th at 7:30 AM CT.

View the market on IBKR: https://t.co/4NFFCjHWRp

[Interactive Brokers @IBKR]

Conditional Contracts are now available on IBKR Prediction Markets. Trade an outcome based on a specified condition, and if that condition isn’t met, your contract is refunded, minus trading fees. Explore Conditional Contracts: https://t.co/F2xZOixGT7

[Patrick T. Brown @PatrickTBrown31]

Crowdsourced feedback has greatly enhanced my analysis of the accuracy of the ForecastEx daily temperature prediction market.

The latest revamped version of my manuscript is now posted on EarthArXiv.

Key points:

Prediction markets have a documented history of distilling dispersed information into well-calibrated probabilities (the wisdom of the crowd).

However, prediction markets' value proposition is clearest for forecasts of, e.g., elections, where the prediction targets human behavior, information is subjective and scattered, and human biases play a large role.

It is far less clear that prediction markets should improve predictions on questions in physical science, such as daily high-temperature forecasts, where competing forecasts are not pontificators with agendas but physical and statistical models refined over decades and supervised by expert meteorologists.

However, this study finds that the ForecastEx daily high-temperature prediction market had the lowest errors among 20 established sophisticated scientific forecasting systems (at 24 US locations over 5,405 location-days).

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Q: Was the prediction market advantage simply a result of the competing systems not targeting the same observations that the market settles on?

A: No. The market advantage exists against systems that are specifically tuned to target the same observational data as the market at the same timescale, and the advantage persists when alternatives are scored against their own standards that better represent what each system targets.

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Q: Was the prediction market advantage just a result of a quicker response to live observations during the day?

A: No. The prediction market advantage over alternatives emerges immediately upon contract listing on the day before the target date and persists through the target date.

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Q: Was the prediction market advantage just a result of it being ‘live’ whereas alternatives embed latency?

A: No. The prediction market advantage over alternatives persists even when I sample forecasts only at the moments when alternatives were freshly published.

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Q: Was the prediction market advantage a result of some idiosyncratic advantage at a few geographic locations?

A: No. The prediction market advantage over alternatives was broad and consistent across locations.

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Overall, the ForecastEx prediction market has consistently lower errors than physical models teamed with statistical corrections and lower errors than expert human meteorologists with access to the same information as the market. It produces these better forecasts not by any particular design, but as an emergent property driven by the direct financial incentives to be correct.

[Patrick T. Brown @PatrickTBrown31]

Prediction markets can represent the best collective knowledge about our energy and climate future.

https://t.co/2FlInzZoBx

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

Predicting the future of prediction markets

Four leaders from companies in the prediction markets ecosystem discuss how this new asset class has evolved and where it is headed at the FIA's Boca 2025 conference.

https://t.co/8x8d7C7Ny1

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

We operate as a Member organization and, while we share common ownership with our Member, Interactive Brokers, LLC, we are separate organizations and share no employees or technology. We are working to expand our list of Members which we post on our website: https://t.co/6ERoiNVRZu

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

https://t.co/GCJouEHX7g

[ForecastEx @ForecastEx]

The software through which customers submit orders is designed and operated by your broker and not ForecastEx, the exchange. We solely control the manner by which your broker transmits the order to us. Nonetheless, we will forward your comment to this Member but also suggest that you contact them directly should you have specific design recommendations.