Jim Rasor

FXing for SIL since 1987. Went to college to learn how to help farmers find better weather info. Still pursuing that goal. WKU UNCA

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

The overall dry 10 day rainfall projection is starting to build some consistency in consensus around the idea of some rain locally during the Halloween weekend.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Temperature projection next 10 days continues to present warmer than normal with a seasonal decline. We will likely be well into November before the first freeze.
During my career the average date of first 32 or less has moved from the 2nd week of October to the last week of October and we have seen several events into November in recent years. Technically a longer growing season but the loss of daylight and GDD limits extended season gains.
It is nice to harvest the last batch of tomatoes in November.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

A very dry projection for 10 day precipitation. All 30 solutions less than 1/4".

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Overall dry projection locally for next 10 days. 28 of 30 solutions present less than 0.25" total precipitation. 26 of 30 less 0.10".

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Couple takeaways for me on the temperature projection data.
Normal high for today is 70. I had to look twice. We have been so warm for so long my perception is skewed.
There is a cooldown in the data BUT, only 3 days in this 2 week chart are cooler than normal. I like to wear flannel. Patience.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Best signal from precipitable water projection we have seen locally in a while. This cold front event should bring rain to the lower Ohio River valley Wednesday (10/14) and an end ... for now ... of near record heat.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Cold snap projected arrival around Oct17-18 appears in multiple solutions but with some variability in just how cold. The warm period before is much warmer in other solutions but appears lower Ohio River valley is in for another round of warm afternoons before cool air arrives for the second half of October.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Same concept as yesterday's projection that heaviest rain from tropical moisture is expected east and south of us. Timing is focused late Saturday into early Sunday.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Rainfall projection for possible tropical impacts locally. Remembering that bigger impacts from moving tropical system are predominately on the right side of the axis of movement it makes sense we see larger projections east and south of us.
monitoring ...

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Days worth of dry in the data for lower Ohio River valley

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

The numeric guidance on the incoming chnace of rain locally is inconsistent on timing and amounts BUT still exists with focus back to Thu-Fri (Oct1-2). Temperature projections show a little more consistency with a return to near normal temperatures after a brief warm-up for the this week.
Lows on low side of normal line and highs on the warm side lead me to infer low humidity and clear (ish) skies in that period suggesting more dry weather locally in week 2. Week 2 charts support the idea of dry.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

I will never tire of clouds at dusk and dawn.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Numeric data has been increasing projected rain amounts around Sep30-Oct2 period so I went to a favorite map data product and it aligns with an increased water vapor flow from the Gulf adding some confidence in the chance of significant rain for that period.
Current numbers suggesting more than an inch of rain projected for the lower Ohio River valley.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

There is some inconsistency from one run to another but the warm bump appears in most solutions around Sep29-30 and is accompanied by a chance of rain locally. Not a big chance and not very much quantity, but a chance. The first week of October has been very inconsistent in temperature outlooks with latest solutions trending down. Just 2 days ago much warmer numbers appeared in this timeframe. Worth monitoring for a few days to find consistency.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Veterans Honor Flight #17, Marion IL is home.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

I'm seeing consistency in solutions that the 2nd half of September is going to be very different from the 1st half.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

2 views of the same storm.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Hottest day of 2026 at my unofficial but fairly accurate sensor.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

My question this morning concerns the tropical moisture moving out of the Gulf and where is it going. Typical year ( this is not a typical year), and I would expect it to bring local influence in less than a week. This projection showing a NE flow influence locally delaying the moisture.
This data keeps hot dry weather over us for first half of September.

[Jim Rasor @Forecaster]

Locally looking at a very dry projection combined with very hot temperatures. Looking at the wettest solutions and the coolest partners this is a hot and dry outlook worth being aware of.