Forex Factory

Global markets for the smart money.

All dates and times displayed in US Eastern unless otherwise specified.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

https://t.co/n9HEpx8Foa

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇺🇸 60 minutes until Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

One more check on consumers' mood, with sentiment near a record low and inflation still on their minds.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇺🇸 The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is out soon, expected to hold at 46.3.

The preliminary reading was just 1.5 points above May's all-time low, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%.

A brighter outlook would be a change of pace.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

@kiko9kh Yep, 2.1% is already the baseline. What matters for JPY is whether the details shift BoJ rate expectations.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

@kakitlee66 2% would be a pickup, but with 2.1% already expected, it would likely take more to stand out as strong

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇺🇸 The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is out soon, expected to hold at 46.3.

The preliminary reading was just 1.5 points above May's all-time low, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%.

A brighter outlook would be a change of pace.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

Low firing has been one piece of the US jobs picture. Unemployment claims are due soon, with five straight readings below 200k. The forecast this time is... 200k

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇺🇸 US Initial Unemployment Claims came in below 200k for five straight releases, but that strength hasn't translated into similarly strong NFP figures.

Claims remain closely watched, but how well do low layoffs reflect the broader jobs picture in this environment?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

UK Retail Sales are due Friday morning in London, with -0.1% m/m forecasted.

Once a high impact release, retail sales have taken a back seat to inflation and wages for now.

Will this release matter for GBP traders? It may take a large surprise to draw significant attention.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇯🇵 Japan National Core CPI is coming up in Friday’s Tokyo session, with consensus at 2.1% y/y vs. the previous 1.7%.

The forecast implies a return above 2% for the first time since January’s release. With the BoJ increasingly focused on preventing an inflation overshoot, will this release strengthen the case for a faster rate-hiking cycle?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

⏳NZ CPI is coming up.

👀 Rate expectations and the kiwi are in focus.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇳🇿 NZ CPI is forecast to rise 0.8% q/q.

With the RBNZ deciding rates just six days later, a hike is the base case, but not fully priced in. An inflation surprise could shift rate expectations and trigger a sharp move in the kiwi.

CPI should move those odds, but which way?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

@ZacTradesFX Let's check in with our calendar team...

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇺🇸 US Initial Unemployment Claims came in below 200k for five straight releases, but that strength hasn't translated into similarly strong NFP figures.

Claims remain closely watched, but how well do low layoffs reflect the broader jobs picture in this environment?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇬🇧 UK CPI is coming up, with 3.4% y/y forecast.

Yesterday's jobs data reinforced expectations for a BoE hike. Will inflation further strengthen the case?

Follow the data:
https://t.co/Pufr8WcE42

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇬🇧 Did you know UK inflation above 3% requires the BoE Governor to explain the overshoot in an open letter to the Chancellor?

The 3.1% reading released last month prompted a letter from Bailey.

UK CPI is due Wednesday, with 3.4% y/y forecast. Will it surprise on the downside?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇳🇿 NZ CPI is forecast to rise 0.8% q/q.

With the RBNZ deciding rates just six days later, a hike is the base case, but not fully priced in. An inflation surprise could shift rate expectations and trigger a sharp move in the kiwi.

CPI should move those odds, but which way?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

Good question. If you mean Claimant Count Change, we lowered its expected impact because it includes some working people receiving Universal Credit, making it a less direct measure of unemployment. Average Earnings had a higher calendar rating for this release.

Today's jobs data had more market impact than expected, so the news was rated high impact. But any future calendar upgrades would more likely apply to Average Earnings or the Unemployment Rate, rather than Claimant Count Change.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇬🇧 Did you know UK inflation above 3% requires the BoE Governor to explain the overshoot in an open letter to the Chancellor?

The 3.1% reading released last month prompted a letter from Bailey.

UK CPI is due Wednesday, with 3.4% y/y forecast. Will it surprise on the downside?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇬🇧 Last month's UK 10-y gilt auction produced a 5.38% yield, the highest since 1999. With global pressure pushing longer-dated yields higher, this next auction will test demand.

For GBP, higher yields may offer little support if they reflect greater concern over UK debt.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇨🇦Canada inflation data is up next!

Follow the release and market reaction on Forex Factory: https://t.co/SxZokvwDSf

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇨🇦 Canadian inflation is coming up, with core figures expected to hold steady after last month’s slight cooling and headline CPI expected to rise.

With the BoC holding off on hikes until inflation broadens, CAD traders may focus more on the Median and Trimmed figures.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇬🇧Could UK wage growth shake up November BoE rate expectations?

With labor data due soon, the Average Earnings Index is in focus.

Earnings have missed forecasts just once in seven releases, while markets price in a 75% chance of a November rate hike.

Will softer wages change the outlook?

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

🇨🇦 Canadian inflation is coming up, with core figures expected to hold steady after last month’s slight cooling and headline CPI expected to rise.

With the BoC holding off on hikes until inflation broadens, CAD traders may focus more on the Median and Trimmed figures.

[Forex Factory @ForexFactory]

2 awards added for @puprime on the broker guide.

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