ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠

Just like the word, Saint:) Fulltime Analyst & Trader for more than a decade; ~1:4000R:R till date(after the 1st busted acc :D). Real trading is calm&boring ;)

[ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠ @ForexSaint]

What a mess (as cautioned). The deal-deal-deal rants have not stopped yet (for an unsigned frigging MOU) and RESUME-IRAN-Strikes tweets have begun

#Facepalm
#IranWar‌ #USD #fx #Oil #XTI #XAUUSD
@zerohedge @alaidi

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*US TO RESUME IRAN STRIKES IF CAN'T REACH NUCLEAR ACCORD: NYT

[Steve Lookner @lookner]

Statement from Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Says "According to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and permanently from tonight, and furthermore, the naval blockade against Iran will be immediately and completely lifted." Signing will be Friday. "Negotiations for the final agreement will be postponed until after the other party fulfills its commitments according to the memorandum of understanding."

[ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠ @ForexSaint]

I dont need to but just in case, XAUUSD sell @ 4305 SL 5100 TP 3800, 3450, may be 2988 (just in case things get awry)
looking to hold till new LOY :)

Next looking for entry in XTI, USDCAD, EURUSD (USDX proxy) & AUDNZD, Also US500
Lets WaitnWatch ;)

#fx #USD #Oil #USD #IranWar‌

[ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠ @ForexSaint]

If someone thinks US-IRAN so called "peace deal" or rather a "fragile MOU", which is yet to be signed btw, needing 60days to make some"deal" is so easy to make "PEACE" and return calm, they are in for a RUDE SHOCK

As a proxy, just SOLD the shit out of XAUUSD @ 4300
#USD #Fx #Oil

[investingLive @investingLive_]

Well, good news. The but .... the 60-day sanctions clock with preconditions baked in is where it gets fragile. A lot can go wrong in that window. Let alone by Friday June 19. Rogue factions in Iran will probably make trouble in the coming days. Still, musn't grumble.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
Let’s see what happens in coming days.
Link: https://t.co/MFCRLUCHDw
Full text:

A permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
A U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements determined by Iran.
Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and related derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting financial revenues.
The United States and its allies would be required to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
A 60-day negotiation period aimed at reaching a final agreement covering nuclear issues and the complete removal of U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, as well as the repeal of relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors.
Reaffirmation by Iran of its commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons.
During the negotiation period, the United States would commit not to deploy additional forces to the region and not to impose any new sanctions.
The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.
Establishment of a monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation of the agreement.
The final agreement would be approved through a UN Security Council resolution.
Final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen assets, the suspension of oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement would focus exclusively on the future of enriched nuclear material and uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and a program for rebuilding Iran’s economy. Discussion of Iran’s missile program and its support for resistance groups would be definitively excluded from the agenda.

As stated by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, this text still requires review and final approval by the relevant authorities in Iran.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.

Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.

VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.

Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change

[Ashraf Laidi @alaidi]

#Trump announcment on cancelling #Iran strikes is giant favour for the stock market and billions in USD of US and foreign funds chasing the #SpaceX IPO tomorrow.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Iranian FM Spokesperson says the issues raised about the agreement are speculation and the issue has not been finalized.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is more insecure due to US actions.

So far, Iran has not reached a final conclusion about the agreement.

The status of the negotiations was clear to us from the beginning and most of the text was finalized, but the Americans kept changing their positions.

Iran has proven that it has no tolerance for what it has defined as a red line.

The text of the agreement is almost ready.

What is being said about the time and place of signing the agreement is media speculation.

https://t.co/SgQsjq98qO

The highest authorities will examine all aspects of any potential agreement, and we will announce our position in due course

The agreement with Washington is not yet final.

[investingLive @investingLive_]

US-Iran Schrödinger's cat deal: signed and unsigned at once. Where are we at?
https://t.co/zNNMInLaCe

[ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠ @ForexSaint]

#update
And you were cautioned beforehand :)
Look at Gold, Oil, Antipodean strength

What a day (and still NY session pending)
#fx #USD

[ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠ @ForexSaint]

#WATCHOUT
Just noticed unusual flows and characteristics (in Late asian session now) in Antipodeans and especially commodities and metals

Keep it tight !

#fx #USD #AUD #NZD

[ForexSaint ⎝⏠⏝⏠⎠ @ForexSaint]

^To add, other than NZD's unemploy't no. (anyway in expected ballpark), there is literally nothing on wires or otherwise to show such abnormal flows. unconfirmed chatter in some closed circles of China's CB doing some shenanigans, in comm's(esp CJ/metals). may be BOJ too
#FX #USD

[Antipodean Macro @AntipodeanMacro]

The kiwis have found a way to boost labour productivity...kill the labour market.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Systematic funds have purchased over $365bn of global equities over the last 75 trading days, the most since covid. Their holdings are now in the 100 percentile

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

TRUMP ON FED CHAIR POWELL:

WE'LL PICK SOMEONE WHO IS GOOD

KEVIN HASSETT IS SOMEONE WE’D CONSIDER FOR FED JOB

WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO WANT THAT JOB

I HAVEN'T DRAFTED A LETTER

RAISED CONCEPT OF FIRING POWELL WITH LAWMAKERS

HE’S MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THEM ON FIRING POWELL

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

Investor Credit tracks the difference between cash held in brokerage accounts and the amount borrowed to buy equities.

A negative value means investors are relying more on debt than cash, increasing their exposure.

Wild.

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Markets are Speaking...

US YIELD CURVE TURNS POSITIVE FOR ONLY SECOND TIME SINCE 2022 - Bloomberg.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

It is quite rare for consumer spending to fall in inflation-adjusted terms. It happened during covid, and during the financial crisis, and it is happening now.

[Menthor Q @MenthorQpro]

Systematic funds remain broadly short the US Dollar Index (-3.70%) while maintaining strong long exposure to G10 currencies—especially the euro, pound, and franc—reflecting a continued rotation into developed market FX and away from EM plays like the Brazilian real.