Ben037

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[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the decision to make a surprise change to debt-management in a CNBC interview on Thursday. Bessent said markets weren’t properly pricing fundamentals, warranting a more activist approach. He also said plans for fiscal consolidation are forthcoming.

“We're trying to signal that we think that this is a thinly traded area of the market, that we're in August, and there's been a lot of corporate issuance that's influenced the market. And we believe that there are many underlying factors in turn that the market is not looking at, and we are going to make a market in these.”

“We believe that the yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals…. We believe that the liquidity, especially in the 30-year point, is very poor. And we are in the administration, we are, be announcing probably at the end of this week, beginning of next week an increased focus on fiscal consolidation.”

“People have bad information. I have asymmetric information, so I think that the market should think, well, why would we have joined the Japanese in the intervention at this time? Do we know something the market doesn't know that, in terms of being willing to do you know what I would call a Treasury twist here in terms of the bond market? What do I know that the market doesn't know? So I think the market's probably gotten a little ahead of itself, a lot of people not much to do in August.”

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

The Treasury Runs the Curve

Wall Street is studying the wrong institution.

For decades, traders lived by a simple rule: the Federal Reserve controls the short end; the bond market controls the long end. The Fed sets the price of overnight money. Investors set the price of 10- and 30-year capital.

That world is gone.

Scott Bessent’s decision to expand long-bond buybacks is not a plumbing exercise. It is forward guidance. The size of the initial purchases is irrelevant. The signal is everything: when long-term yields rise far enough to threaten housing, federal finances or market stability, the Treasury will intervene.

Wall Street heard “liquidity support” and reached for its old spreadsheet. It counted billions, compared them with the stock of outstanding debt and declared the effect negligible. It missed the only number that mattered: the yield level at which Washington decided the market had gone too far.

Markets do not trade only today’s purchase. They trade tomorrow’s regime. Long yields fell because investors understood that the Treasury has written a put beneath duration. It did not need to announce a 30-year target. It did not need to promise unlimited purchases. Its reaction function was enough.

The old Wall Street catechism, that only the Fed can set financial conditions, has become a liability. The Fed controls the overnight rate. Treasury controls the supply, maturity, liquidity and increasingly the downside risk of the debt that the world uses to price duration.

That power now matters more.
America is carrying nearly $40 trillion in federal debt. Mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, infrastructure finance and the valuation of every long-lived asset depend not on the fed funds rate, but on the term premium embedded in the long end. Treasury issuance, buybacks and maturity management therefore shape monetary conditions more directly than another quarter-point move from the Federal Open Market Committee.

Bessent understands this. His Genius Act strategy places the long end at the centre of policy. Stablecoins create a new source of demand for short-dated government paper. Buybacks reduce the market’s exposure to long-duration supply. Together, they reshape the curve: more demand at the front, less pressure at the back.

Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass is no longer a metaphor. It is a market manual. The Treasury has become an active manager of financial conditions; the Fed is no longer the only central bank that matters. Implicit, is the Fed moving to the background.

Wall Street, still following a playbook from a vanished era, has missed the turn.

[AI Avenger @AI__Avenger]

WARREN BUFFETT - THIS IS WHY MOST PEOPLE WILL NEVER BE RICH

Warren Buffett turned $10,000 into $15 million and said anyone could do it starting today.

Adam Smith's Money World. No computer on the desk. No Quotron screen. Net worth past $1 billion, none of it inherited.

$10,000 into the partnership in 1956. Disbanded in 1969. Proceeds rolled into Berkshire. A little over $15 million by the time of the taping.

Asked if a normal person could repeat it now, he said yes. On one condition: don't try to do too much in the first week.

Then the interviewer asks the real question. The philosophy is public. It has been public for years. Why doesn't everybody do it?

"It requires patience, which a lot of people don't have. People would much rather be promised that they're going to win a lottery ticket next week than that they're going to get rich slowly."

Mid-70s. The whole Washington Post Company traded at $80 million. The properties were worth at least $400 million. Nobody argued about the $400 million. The price sat there in the open for everyone to see.

People just didn't feel enthusiastic about the world that year.

He turns it into a poker test. 30 minutes at the table and you can't spot the patsy, you're the patsy. Your stock drops 10% and it upsets you. That means you think the market knows your business better than you do.

Same 10% drop. He buys more.

Asked what the billion means to him, he calls it a byproduct. 99% goes back to society. He still files his own tax return.

The formula was free. The waiting was the price.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Here is how Bessent's Treasury QE works:

- Step 1: Bessent issues UST bills.
- Step 2: The Fed prints money to buy them.
- Step 3: Bessent uses the proceeds to buy long-term USTs.

They don't call it QE because the Fed doesn't intervene directly in the long end...

Meanwhile the Fed is buying UST bills at a faster pace than during Covid.

I'm pretty sure we will effectively get YCC... just with a different name tag.

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

Stanley Druckenmiller:

“I think my record (over 30% for 30 years) is mainly because when I’m wrong, I change my mind.”

[SilverTrade @silvertrade]

🔥BESSENT SAYS HE'S "A GOLD BUG" & REIGNITES THE GOLD STANDARD DEBATE:
🎇“Gold Can’t Have a Budget Deficit. Gold Can’t Start a War.”

⚡️The US Treasury Secretary REIGNITED the GOLD STANDARD DEBATE speaking with Tucker Carlson:

"Gold is something that historically people have all agreed on.
Gold can't have a fiscal problem.
Gold cannot have a gigantic budget deficit.
Gold cannot have a war.
Just the fact that it is this isolated thing makes it VERY INTERESTING.
The ENTIRE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM UNTIL RICHARD NIXON TOOK US OFF WAS TIED TO GOLD!"

Tucker: "So you're not anti-gold?"

Bessent: "Oh no! When I had my fun, I think people might have called me a GOLD BUG!" 👀

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

He Didn’t Learn Yields at a Fed Seminar

Scott Bessent learned yields, currency crosses, and sovereign risk with real capital on the line, not from a Fed seminar.

I keep saying it: Scott Bessent is the most consequential Treasury secretary since Alexander Hamilton.

He learned them with real capital on the line, as a global-macro investor navigating the world’s biggest markets.

Bessent gave everyone fair warning on yields. If you missed it, that is not his failure. It is yours.

Wall St and the Fed are full of people who can talk about markets. Bessent is one of the few who has actually traded them. Underestimate him at your peril.

[Rick @dwerty_qq]

In September 1939, twenty-six-year-old broker at a small Wall Street firm borrowed $10,000 from his boss the week Hitler invaded Poland and the New York Stock Exchange collapsed.

He bought 100 shares of every single stock on the exchange trading below $1. He ended up with 104 companies. Thirty-four of them were already in bankruptcy.

Four years later he had quadrupled his money.

Fifty-three years later he sold the fund he built on top of that trade for $913 million to Franklin Resources.

His name was John Templeton. Queen Elizabeth II knighted him in 1987. He renounced his US citizenship, moved to a small island in the Bahamas called Lyford Cay, and never came back.

In 1985 a PBS crew flew down to interview him for a show called Adam Smith's Money World. Templeton walked them through his garden, sat down in front of a single camera, and gave the only nine minutes of tape that fully explain how he did it.

The Bahamas were not a tax play. He tells the interviewer directly: "In the 22 years we have lived here, the performance of our mutual fund is better than in the 25 years we managed it from Radio City in New York."

Distance from Wall Street was the alpha. Everyone else was reading the same wires, hearing the same rumors, panicking on the same days.

He gives four rules on camera and never adds a fifth.

Search the entire world for the cheapest company relative to what you believe it is worth. Ignore whether the market is going up or down — nobody knows and it does not matter. Buy at the point of maximum pessimism, when the newspapers are worst. The four most dangerous words in investing are "this time it's different."

Then he delivers the line that has never been printed on a Templeton fund brochure: "To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate rewards."

He died on July 8, 2008 in Nassau, Bahamas. He was 95.

The full interview is nine minutes and fourteen seconds. It was uploaded to YouTube in November 2020 and has 2,270 views. That is roughly the number of people who work on a single hedge fund floor in Manhattan on any given morning.

Bookmark and watch today ↓

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

On Treasury's debt-purchase announcement

The timing of the decision in between scheduled quarterly refunding announcements (just two weeks after the last one and hours before it is slated to sell $16 billion of 20-year debt) suggests that officials "didn't like what was happening" in the market, said one rate strategist.

https://t.co/1amnESqT19

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Hormuz Miscalculation

Sec Bessent gets it.

Iran has mistaken a tactical threat for a durable advantage. By repeatedly signaling its willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran hasn’t strengthened its hand, it has accelerated the market’s exit.
Capital does not tolerate chokepoints; it routes around them.

Saudi Arabia is expanding its East-West pipeline. The UAE has already built out Fujairah as a bypass. Iraq is revisiting overland export corridors. Every marginal dollar now flows toward redundancy, not reliance. What was once a geopolitical lever is being engineered into irrelevance. Bessent gets it: markets don’t absorb coercion, they arbitrage it away
.
Energy markets are not static, and they are not sentimental. The shale revolution already diluted OPEC’s grip. LNG has globalized gas. Now infrastructure is doing the same to maritime risk. Once these pipelines are built, they don’t get unbuilt. Volume shifts become permanent. Pricing power follows.

Tehran’s miscalculation is classic: overplay a scarce asset, and the world invests to make it abundant. The more Iran rattles Hormuz, the faster it erodes the very leverage it seeks to exploit.

In the end, this is not deterrence. Its substitution and substitution, once funded, is irreversible. Iran is underwriting its own marginalization.

The US is the big winner. China the big loser.

Welcome to the new great game.

[Hux @huxlab]

Google 刚放了个免费 2 小时课程，比市面上卖 700 刀的 Agent 课讲得还清楚。

不是又一个写个 prompt 就能跑的 demo。

而是从单个 Agent 一路搭到能自己运转的多 Agent 系统。

时间轴直接点核心：

17:44 你的第一个 AI Agent
39:30 用循环跑 Agent
1:12:38 把循环升级成图
1:34:26 自改进 Agent
1:55:05 一个能自己运转的完整系统

真正拉开差距的就几件事：
工具解耦成独立 MCP 服务，Agent 只管发现和调用。
用不同策略（顺序、并行、循环）设计专精Agent。
循环升级成有向图，节点之间真正能协作。
加入自改进和记忆，系统越跑越强。

大多数人还在堆单个 Agent。

能规模化的，是会画图、会编排的人。

[Huan @Huanusa]

贫穷是被设计好的四大陷阱困住普通人

[Rohit @HeyRohhit]

This 2-hour Stanford course breaks down how LLMs work, how they’re trained, and how to build one from scratch.

Anthropic pays $750,000/year to engineers who understand this exact knowledge of LLMs.

Bookmark it and give it 2 hours today, no matter what.

[Alex_感知 @Alex_perception]

又见证历史了各位~ https://t.co/28qCji0Tp5

[Superior @andreysuperior]

Two horses. One has a 20% chance of winning, the other 80%. A bookie knows the real odds. The crowd doesn't. $10,000 lands on one horse, $50,000 on the other.

Inside an MIT classroom, a professor asks one question: how does the bookie guarantee he never loses?

He ignores what he knows. Sets the odds not by probability but by how the money fell. Five to one, matching the market.

First horse wins, he pays $60,000 and collected $60,000. Second horse wins, same thing. Zero exposure. Fee on top. Riskless profit.

That's not gambling. That's pricing.

The same math prices every option contract on Wall Street. Black-Scholes, replicating portfolios, hedging. It starts with one insight: you don't need to predict the future. You structure the trade so the future doesn't matter.

The professor builds it step by step. Take any derivative. Find a combination of stock and cash that replicates the pay-off exactly. Hold both sides. Risk cancels. You keep the spread.

He pulls up Bloomberg with IBM call options and shows it in real numbers. Prices a digital option using nothing but two calls at different strikes. No model needed. Just replication.

Traders do this thousands of times a day. Enter a contract, hedge it on the exchange, walk away with a fee. No opinion on direction. Just structure.

The entire derivatives market works this way. Not prediction. Replication.

The people who understood that distinction first built the biggest fortunes in finance.

[Leo @leoxbtt]

Hoy contratar a Tony Robbins cuesta 1 millón de dólares por un solo día.

Esto es una cinta de 21 minutos grabada en su propia casa hace más de 30 años.

Ahí explica exactamente cómo lograr que cualquiera diga que sí.

El mismo material por el que ahora cobran fortuna… completamente gratis.

Es una grabación rara e sin filtros, de la época en que todavía no cobraba a multimillonarios solo por estar en la misma habitación.

Cuando alguien dice que no, da dos excusas:

“No tengo tiempo” o “No tengo dinero”

Ninguna es verdad.

La verdadera razón es que todavía no cree que valga la pena.

No es un problema de dinero. Es un problema de estado.

Tony enseña algo que llama “atacar y confesar”

En lugar de discutir la objeción, confiesas la tuya propia:

“Yo tuve la oportunidad de ir hace seis meses y no fui hasta hace dos.

No puedo ni imaginar el tiempo que perdí”

La sala se queda en silencio. Nadie discute.

Después mete a la persona en el “tren del sí”

Cada pequeño sí se suma al siguiente.

Hasta que decir que no al final se siente más difícil que decir que sí.

Cuando llega el momento de firmar, la persona ya ha aceptado cinco veces sin darse cuenta.

Solo 21 minutos.

Ahí aprendes las dos únicas jugadas por las que la gente paga 1 millón al día:

cómo leer el estado de cualquiera… y cómo moverlo.

La mayoría se pasa años adivinando en ventas.

Él lo escribió en un flipchart de su sala de estar en menos de media hora.

Un asiento en esa habitación costaba $125 dólares.

Hoy cuesta $1 millón de dólares al día estar frente a él.

La cinta está gratis ahora mismo.

Y la respuesta está en este video.

[Black Bond PTV @BlackBondPtv]

🚨 RÉVÉLATION CHOQUANTE SUR GEORGES SOROS

Scott Bessent, actuel Secrétaire au Trésor des États-Unis, balance tout :

Il a travaillé 15 ans pour George Soros.

Le soir de l’élection 2016, Soros a volontairement fait CRASHER le marché américain…
et a perdu PLUSIEURS MILLIARDS en misant contre Trump.

Bessent, lui, a parié gros sur Trump et a gagné.

L’homme qui a connu les réseaux de Soros de l’intérieur est aujourd’hui au sommet de la finance américaine et travaille pour Trump.

Vous imaginez la suite ? 👀

[Hayek-Club Weimar @WeimarClub]

Sozialismus ist das perfekte Geschäftsmodell für Politiker: Er erzeugt Abhängigkeit, und Abhängigkeit erzeugt Wähler. Wer vom Staat lebt – durch Transferleistungen, Subventionen, „soziale“ Absicherung, planwirtschaftliche Privilegien – wählt denjenigen, der die Hähne aufdreht. Der Politiker wird zum Versorger, der Bürger zum Klienten. Je größer die Abhängigkeit, desto größer die Macht. Deshalb lieben sie ihn. Nicht aus Ideologie, sondern aus nacktem Eigeninteresse.

Kapitalismus hingegen ist für die politische Klasse eine existenzielle Bedrohung. Er belohnt Eigenverantwortung, Risiko, Innovation und private Initiative. Er macht Menschen unabhängig vom Staat – und damit unkontrollierbar. Wer seinen Lebensunterhalt selbst verdient, seine Entscheidungen selbst trifft und seinen Wohlstand selbst schafft, braucht keine Gönner in Berlin, Brüssel oder sonstwo.

Jede Regulierung, die „den Markt zähmen“ soll, ist in Wahrheit ein Instrument, um Wettbewerb zu ersticken und etablierte Interessen zu schützen. Der freie Markt braucht keinen Politiker als Mittler. Der Politiker braucht den freien Markt als Feindbild.

Deshalb die ewige Rhetorik: Kapitalismus wird als „gierig“, „ungerecht“, „unsozial“ gebrandmarkt – während der Staat, der mit Gewalt monopolisiert, umverteilt und kontrolliert, als moralische Instanz auftritt. Es ist die älteste Strategie der Macht: die Abhängigkeit als Tugend verkaufen und die Unabhängigkeit als Gefahr.

Der Staat hat kein Interesse an freien Menschen. Er hat Interesse an Untertanen, die ihm dankbar sind. Sozialismus liefert die Untertanen. Kapitalismus liefert die Freien.

#FreiheitstattKnechtschaft #SteuernsindRaub #Eigentum #Freiheit #ParasitenwegmitEuremZwang

[Kirill @kirillk_web3]

Anthropic CEO after realizing a Chinese dev explained loop vs graph engineering better than anyone at the company