Jason Fortin

Basketball metrics guy. I have the privilege of helping out the St. John’s men’s basketball team with analytics.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

As a kid delivering Newsday, I’d see Pitino, Mullin, Berry & Jackson on the back cover.

40 years later, Roger Rubin of Newsday writes about my St. John’s experience.

Surreal. Beyond grateful to Coach Pitino for the opportunity to be a part of this team.

[Roger Rubin @RogRubin]

Meet Long Islander Jason Fortin, the stat guru who helps St. John’s coach Rick Pitino and his staff get an edge.
@NewsdaySports story: https://t.co/1n4GomW90C. #sjubb

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

In the video below, Evan Miyakawa ranks St. John’s five-man lineup No. 4 nationally in predicted efficiency margin using Nov. 11 data.

As I type this on Nov. 13, the lineup of Quinn Ellis, Keyshawn Hall, Ian Jackson, Ruben Prey and Tounde Yessoufou is No. 1 nationally on https://t.co/nqlOGgIHTc. See table below.

St. John’s faced Texas’s No. 2-ranked lineup in an exhibition at MSG.

And not for nothing, in St. John’s 87–74 win, the five Johnnies in Evan’s No. 1 lineup combined for +60 in individual plus/minus, while the five Longhorns in his No. 2 lineup combined for −52.

[Evan Miyakawa @EvanMiya]

Using predicted lineup efficiencies at https://t.co/Zc0pvHmgWD, here's the top 25 lineups in the country through the first week of the season with some quick thoughts:

LSU has the best starting unit in the country right now 👀

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Last week I flagged that Quinn was projected as a reserve and pointed out his projected assist numbers.

This time I pointed out something I’d missed. Quinn had the lowest projected offensive rating on the entire St. John’s roster, including the European recruits.

And I’ll say it again - I love Bart Torvik’s website. Identifying the top 10 rotation players for 365 Division I teams and projecting their minutes and stats is a massive undertaking.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Let me start by saying I love @totally_t_bomb's site and visit it frequently - this ain't no Kevin Pauga and his awful KPI metric situation...

But Bart’s preseason numbers had Quinn Ellis as the WORST offensive player in St. John’s projected 10-man rotation by offensive rating. That’s looking like a freezing cold take so far.

Through SJU’s first three regular-season games and the Texas exhibition game, Quinn has 34 assists and just 2 turnovers – a 17-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

That includes 7 assists and zero turnovers in SJU’s 87–74 exhibition win over No. 7 Texas at MSG.

I take individual plus/minus with a grain of salt, but Quinn has led St. John’s in each of its first three regular-season games. He was +32 last night, +40 the game before and +18 in the opener.

Across those three games, SJU outscored opponents by 90 points with Quinn ON the floor.

With Quinn OFF the floor, opponents outscored SJU by 5.

Go Johnnies!!!!!!

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

@JakeAndBall @SJUDave It was 71.9 per 100 from after the first media timeout until the end of the game.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

St. John’s held Colgate to 59 points on 72 possessions (81.9 per 100), Colgate's lowest offensive rating since the start of last season.

That stretch included Florida, Illinois and Michigan State. Florida held Colgate to last season’s low of 92.6 per 100. SJU was 10.7 better.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Congrats to the St. John's women on today's win!

St. John's point guards over the last two games:

Men: Quinn Ellis – 11 assists, 1 turnover.

Women: Ny'Ceara Pryor – 11 assists, 0 turnovers.

22 assists. Just 1 turnover.

Pretty good!

Go Johnnies!!!!!!

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Another great outing from Daniss Jenkins last night:

22 points
8 assists
4 steals
6 rebounds

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

@totally_t_bomb Thanks Bart. How many games does it take for the preseason projections to cycle out of your rankings?

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

I spotted something pretty wacky in your St. John's projections, @totally_t_bomb, and since you asked people to flag these things, here you go.

You're projecting Quinn Ellis to be a reserve off the bench with little impact on the game, averaging just 1.4 assists per game.

He had 7 assists and 5 steals last night in St. John's opener. In his last two exhibitions against Texas and Rutgers, he had 16 assists and just 1 turnover.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Quinn won't finish 5th on St. John's in assists.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

FYI - Bart Torvik did follow up just now on the "wackiness" of St. John's preseason projections. With this fix, St. John's is ranked 14th in Torvik as I type this - was ranked 32nd when I pointed this out 6 days ago.

[Bart T🏀rvik @totally_t_bomb]

@FortinAnalytics Sorry for the late response on this. Something did get screwed up on Nov. When I pulled actual player class data from NCAA many euro recruits got essentially downgraded to juco status because of bug. As a result, SJU fell from 18 to 33 in projections.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Daniss Jenkins scored a career high 31 points last night, shooting 8-for-15 (53%) from 3PT and a perfect 5-for-5 from the free throw line.

For the season, he's shooting 44% from 3PT on 4.8 attempts per game and 89% from the free throw line.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

A few stats from St. John’s 104-65 win:

104 points on 71 possessions for a 146.9 offensive rating – 3rd highest during Coach Pitino’s tenure at SJU.

A 5.7% turnover rate – 2nd lowest during Coach P's tenure – with just 4 turnovers.

Quinn Ellis: 11 assists. Just 1 turnover.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Congrats to the St. John’s women’s basketball team on today’s 102–33 win over Wagner. The 69 point margin of victory is the largest in program history – and comes on the heels of a 58 point win over Lafayette in the season opener.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

@BryanPazaras I don't think much of 3 game and 7 attempt sample size. But DJ is off to a nice start from 3PT range shooting 5-for-7 (71.4%).

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Daniss Jenkins had a great all-around game in Detroit’s 106-93 win over Philly last night: 18 points, 6 assists and 8 rebounds in 38 minutes, shooting 3-for-4 from 3PT.

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

If you’ve followed me for the past couple of years, you know how much I respect @EvanMiya.

He has St. John’s as one of his three ride-or-die teams this season—and shares some interesting stats on the “Pitino Effect.”

[Evan Miyakawa @EvanMiya]

I have 3 teams that I am going to ride-or-die with this season.

In today's preseason bandwagon episode, @ryanhammer09 and I are each picking 3 teams we are absurdly high on this year.

Rules:
- No AP top 5 team
- Max 1 top 10 team
- Max 2 top 25 teams

https://t.co/qqvOec247J

[Jason Fortin @FortinAnalytics]

Rick Pitino needs to be at the top of any all-time list ranking current college basketball coaches.

A reminder of what he inherited — and what those same 6 programs looked like in Year 2:

Boston U: 10-15 → 21-9
Providence: 11-20 → 25-9
Kentucky: 13-19 → 22-6
Louisville: 12-19 → 25-7
Iona: 12-17 → 25-8
St. John’s: 18-15 → 31-5

Combined before Pitino: 76-105 (.420)
Combined in Year 2: 149-44 (.772)

Six programs. Different eras. Same turnaround.

[JPR @Scouting_Col]

My all-time rankings of every current D1 head coach.

Weighted by: NCAA titles, Final Fours, NCAA Tourney wins, conference titles, career wins & win %, plus bonuses for mid-major tourney upsets and national titles below D1.