Foxian Research

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[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸:

• Tuesday: July Existing Home Sales
• Wednesday: OPEC Monthly Report + July CPI
• Thursday: July PPI
• Friday: July Retail Sales + August Consumer Sentiment

A busy week ahead, with inflation data in focus.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝘀𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗶𝘀 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗸𝗲𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴” 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻.

• Economic pressure over military action.
• Iran issues new Hormuz demands.
• Trump: “semi-negotiating” with Iran.
• US seeks de-escalation for now.

US futures open in under 5 hours.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: Trump may end the Iran war without a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, per WSJ.

Iran wants billions in U.S. payments and U.S. troop withdrawals.

Hormuz remains the key hurdle.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗟𝗮𝘆𝗼𝗳𝗳𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿.

The information sector's layoff rate jumped +0.7 percentage points in June, to 2.3%.

AI continues to transform the labor market.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗢𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝗻𝗱.

US manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.6 in July, the highest since May 2022.

Manufacturing is finally breaking out of its longest slump on record.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗻𝘇𝗮.

US data center construction spending is up nearly 9x since 2021.

AI infrastructure is reshaping the construction industry.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗨𝗦 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝗷𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀.

The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, missing expectations for +80,000.

The US labor market is far weaker than initially thought.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗳𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆.

Private investment in AI related categories has climbed to a record annualized pace near $1.4 trillion.

AI related investment continues to climb rapidly.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗨𝗦 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗶 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗼 𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼.

US imports of Saudi crude fell to zero in July, the first full month without any since 1985.

US crude import patterns continue to evolve.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗨𝗦 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗤𝟮.

US labor productivity rose +1.4% in Q2 2026, more than double the +0.6% expected.

Productivity is gaining momentum.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲.

The Gold/S&P 500 ratio is down to ~50, well below the 2011 peak of ~110.

Gold has rarely been this cheap relative to stocks.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗨𝗦 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀.

ISM Manufacturing PMI rose +2.3 points to 55.6 in July, the highest since May 2022.

Manufacturing activity is gaining momentum.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴.

S&P 500 call option volume surged to a record ~4.0 million contracts.

Investors are showing increased demand for upside exposure.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗧𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱.

Tether's gold reserves have climbed to 146 tonnes, worth $18.8 billion.

Tether continues expanding its gold holdings.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱.

China's gold backed ETFs recorded their longest inflow streak since March, attracting around $1.2 billion.

Gold backed ETF inflows have rebounded.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗝𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗻'𝘀 𝗬𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁.

US and Japan carried out their first joint yen intervention since 1998.

The yen's weakness has become a concern for Washington too.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗨𝗦 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗮 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝘁.

The S&P 500's valuation premium over global equities has fallen to around 22%, the lowest since 2020.

The S&P 500's relative valuation is now below its long term average.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗬𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴.

USD/JPY has started diverging from the US-Japan interest rate gap since Liberation Day in April 2025.

Other factors are driving the yen.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲.

Retail selling in technology stocks reached a record level last week, marking the largest net selling since the data began in 2019.

Retail sentiment has turned sharply bearish.

[Foxian Research @FoxianResearch]

𝗦𝗞 𝗛𝘆𝗻𝗶𝘅 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲-𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗘𝗧𝗙𝘀.

SK Hynix holds around $5.5 billion in leveraged ETF assets, the most of any stock globally.

Chip stocks are at the center of leveraged ETF exposure.