Francesca Peck

Economist working in the city. All views are my own.

[IHS Markit Economics & Country Risk @EconomicsRisk]

As we edge closer to October’s decisive monetary policy meeting, stronger than expected inflation figures may have given the hawks the upper hand #Sweden https://t.co/4zEPivEL1d Insights from @FrancescaCPeck

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

With a week to go till the Riksbank's October meeting, I've taken a deeper look at what last week's stronger than expected CPI and CPIF numbers might mean for Swedish monetary policy https://t.co/H2oWA0i8s8

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Swedish inflation in September comes in fractionally stronger than our forecast. The real surprise is the acceleration for the CPIF excl. energy which rose to 1.6% y/y, from 1.2% y/y in August. Maybe we will get a rate rise for Christmas after all!

[Statistics Sweden @StatsSweden]

Inflation rate according to CPIF 2.5 percent https://t.co/SEPdwPTmjJ

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Swedish inflation results tomorrow. If inflation under performs (as it is expected to), it will likely mean no rate rise this year. But it could also be a very bumpy day for FX markets. More to follow . . .

[IHS Markit Economics & Country Risk @EconomicsRisk]

Increased dovishness at the Riksbank has led to high FX volatility; as fears mount that the first rate hike will be delayed in 2019. Insights from @FrancescaCPeck https://t.co/CrYa5aklqv

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

New blog post from me on: Swedish monetary policy, inflation and foreign exchange. Delving deeper in to why FX markets had such a strong reaction to Friday's inflation numbers

https://t.co/qgB958lMsr

[FT Economics @fteconomics]

Bank of England raises interest rates to highest level since 2009 https://t.co/iXe5W46hNZ

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Whilst still firmly in growth territory (58.0), the #Dutch #PMI has definitely fallen off its February peak (63.4). Suggesting a significantly weaker environment for manufacturing in the second half of 2018.

[S&P Global PMI™ @SPGlobalPMI]

#Netherlands manufacturing #PMI down to 58.0 in July, signalling weakest improvement in business conditions since May 2017. Output and new business growth weaken but remain strong overall. https://t.co/RMTsQSHntX

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

It's looking possible that May was the turning point, for #Irish #manufacturing after 6-months of volatility and contracting growth. We will know more next week, when we get the monthly IP numbers, but the #PMI looks promising

[S&P Global PMI™ @SPGlobalPMI]

#Ireland manufacturing output rises sharply again in July, helps keep headline #PMI elevated at 56.3 (56.6 in June). https://t.co/O9tmderDUh

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Especially when @SCB_nyheter says that inventories contributed 0.3% to GDP growth in Q2. If we remove that, growth falls back/close to market expectations - so are we now at risk of over estimating the importance of this overshoot?

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Sweden's Q2 #GDP surprised on the upside this morning, coming in stronger than my own and the #Riksbank forecast

[Statistics Sweden @StatsSweden]

Sweden’s GDP grew 1.0 percent in the second quarter https://t.co/dywao3AzlO

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

And 2. Are we ignoring/underplaying the role of inventories?

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Looking purely at the debt side, any reduction in the presence of multinationals could have serious implications for Ireland

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Really interesting developments this week, particularly in light of the trade war. I'm really interested in implications for Ireland, could this ruling encourage profit repatriation under the TCJA? See my blog post from yesterday for more on the TCJA and the Irish economy

[The New Yorker @NewYorker]

In launching its investigation into Google’s business practices, in 2015, the European Commission was responding to complaints from a group of American technology firms, which included Microsoft, Oracle, Expedia, and Kayak.  https://t.co/gRTTw1066l

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

We also know that many multinationals are planning to repatriate profits to the USA under the TCJA. Apple has suggested they will move around USD285 billion back. Might this ruling exacerbate that process?

[Francesca Peck @FrancescaCPeck]

Some weekend reading for anyone interested in what yesterday's Irish GDP/GNP/GNI numbers could mean

https://t.co/DgfuRvXm7S