Truly_Macro!

Investment Strategist. Arsenal Fan. CFA Charterholder.

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@UtdChapters Mesut Özil

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@thefutballboy_1 Yaya Toure

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@marketplunger1 Very “cheap” a reason….

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@his_eminence_j @BobEUnlimited @lisaabramowicz1 lol

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Liquidity is one the most important yet misunderstood macro variables.

This thread will help you understand how it works.

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[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@EPBResearch Get well soon Eric, I will say a prayer for you 🙏🏾

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@M_C_Klein @TheStalwart I am a big fan of the Overshoot btw! Always good insights

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@M_C_Klein @TheStalwart Tech layoffs have no predictive power for the direction of macro trends. Construction/manufacturing on the other hand offer more insight given their high sensitivity to US cycle

tech as a % of US employment is insignificant, and it’s cyclicality vs US growth is limited too

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@BobEUnlimited This seems more like a growth momentum induced rally given the broad rally in cyclical (growth sensitive assets) - CPI print helped of course. It’s also interesting that equities ignored higher policy rates over the last month or more. Seems policy is NOT the marginal driver!

[Fortis Terra @Fortis_Terra_]

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[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@NickTimiraos not sure you have seen your copycat @NickiTimiraos

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@joefrancis505 @steve_donze My guess would be NDX is more tech/growth heavy, hence more rates sensitive - liquidity impacts markets through similar channels as rates

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@Miss_K_Vang @LazarusKumi @ashbeige 😂😂😂

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@NickTimiraos What do you make of the
+$11.9 billion from BTFP? It’s half of what was made available. Do you interpret that as less demand from the troubled corners of US banks?

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@biancoresearch If the inversion is deeper because the 2Y rises sharply and swiftly (front loaded hiking cycle), it typically means deeper recession, lower inflation and higher unemployment historically.. see https://t.co/u2Juz47GaJ for more

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@Fissy_Pop Happy Birthday 🎉🎂

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@GordonJohnson19 US equities have actually lagged the most recent rally, it’s cyclicals/value (Europe e.g.) and China exposed names rallying. I think the reason is far simpler, markets expect an imminent pause by the Fed since core inflation is tending lower, and risk sentiment has shot up.

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@RichardDias_CFA Not ENTIRELY surprised, given households and small businesses had a month of zero energy costs in December, also headline inflation is coming down, which is what non central bankers focus on. I also sense optimism from China re-opening, especially in export oriented industries!

[Truly_Macro! @FrancisAddai_]

@Marc_0h Ppl will still say we are a fluke…😅