The gap between trend and actual is what the government is trying to replace with debt (spending). Reserves are just a function of the increase in debt. It looks like this globally not just in the US.
Nearly every credit transaction made today has an interest rate swap embedded in it somewhere, with dealers on both sides.
Which means swap prices carry dealer balance sheet capacity, forward rate expectations, demand for duration, and collateral conditions in a single signal.
Almost nobody looks.
Watch me break it down here:
https://t.co/KzLeKoQAh7
"The ability to make benefit payments is not determined by the balance of a savings account. It depends on the government's fiscal authority and, more importantly, the productive capacity of the economy."