Thereās a lot of noise in the market right now ā conflicting narratives everywhere.
But hereās the reality ā or at least my take on whatās really going on:
Everything happening in markets right now, especially in crypto, is a direct consequence of the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 last year.
When financial conditions tighten, liquidity gets drained, and economic surprises start to slow. I mentioned this before, including in a tweet I posted yesterday.
Thatās why weāre seeing a soft patch in the economic data and why the market is freaking out about a growth scare, with recession talk now making a comeback.
Hereās the thing:
This will all reverse next month.
Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months ā dollar down, bond yields down, oil down ā and thatās setting the stage for a recovery in the data soon. Remember, financial conditions are always leading.
One final point:
With the drop to $80k, this tightening is now fully reflected in the price of Bitcoin.
Could we go a little lower? Sureā¦
But hereās what Iād say:
Everyoneās already on the same side of the trade ā sentiment is extremely bearish, and Bitcoin is sitting at an RSI of 23, the most oversold level since August 2023.
So if youāre still bearish, donāt get too comfortableā¦
Instead, be greedy when others are fearful.
Just my two cents. Hope itās helpful to some.
This whole bull market from Dec 2023 till now I have lost all my savings. I have been in crypto since 2017 on and off and never made any money. I haven't even leverage traded since March 2024, and only been in spot and I'm down 90%. I don't know what to do anymore.
#GRIFFAIN is showing signs of a potential reversal!
After a steep drop. Selling pressure is easing, and volume is stabilizing near key support classic bottoming signals.
Backed by Solana, this could be a prime accumulation zone.
If momentum shifts, Valhalla is imminent.
It's really clear in what direction #GRIFFAIN is building, mass adoption.
A few days ago we also saw @toly talk about how these would be the apps evolving crypto this season.
Read the thread, they are enabling users to sell and buy real life products through agentic use, eliminating websites and salesmen.
If you like to bet on technology like me, this team is without a doubt one of the biggest builders in the space.
My current $SOL utility bags.
- #GRIFFAIN
- $SNAI
- $SSE
I'll be adding a few more, but under 5M MC. Feel free to share if you have any down below š
#GRIFFAIN right now is one of the most undervalued AI projects. Those of us who were there at the start know what it is to wait for the shakeouts to be over.
After all the rugs of the past weeks, I believe we see a return to quality and utility. Nothing has changed, billions.