The Frum Finance Guy

Ex-financial advisor
Trading daily sharing sessions as they happens
Trying to set the record straight on a profession hurt more by confusion than by actual scam

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Today I played gold right at the open, and because of that I was stressed and cut the entire position at the first chance instead of letting a partial run, even though price was very clearly bearish.
Right after I cut it, another signal showed up on Nas, but by the time I finished analyzing it, price was already gone, so I didn't play it.
Beautiful trade, shame.
That's also live trading, the randomness of the real thing, far from the cozy predictions of a backtest.

Another signal came up on Nas that I didn't play because a rule of mine forbids it, then another good signal on gold that I missed, probably would've taken a partial and let the rest end at BE.
Then a signal on Nas, SL.

Volatility seems to have calmed down, and we're approaching 5 PM in Europe, known as the closing time for London swing traders the friday, which can cause range conditions.
So I'm stepping away from the screens, closing out my week and my month.

Have a good weekend, everyone.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Not a good day for me.
Too many no-plays, not enough focus.
Watching good trades pass me by got to me emotionally, and I ended up forcing my way into weaker ones right after.

But on the positive side, the session's starting to get some color back.
My focus just got a bit numbed by these last few very slow days.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Frustrating session today. I played a first signal that showed up on Nas right at the 9:30 open, which isn't something I usually do, so I was a bit tense. Price was nervous as expected, I banked a partial, then price reversed sharply. I had one BE already set on the second position, it slipped and I lost a bit more than the partial gains. Overall BE on that position. Avoidable if I'd placed both BEs in time, but price was very nervous, it's the open, no way around it.

A few minutes later I got a signal on gold, played it, price retraced after bouncing pretty hard off a level. Took part of the position out at BE, held the rest to full TP. Frustrated I didn't get to keep the rest of the position running, since I was actually planning to let it ride given the bearish potential I was seeing. I think that's exactly what set up the mistake on the next trade.

Then I had two signals at the same time, gold and Nas. I chose gold even though Nas was cleaner. Also got slipped on the SL. Barely walked away positive from the session...

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

@SJosephBurns I feel like I could say the exact opposite. Your RR doesn't determine your profitability, your win rate does. (Agree on position sizing.)

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Today gold gave a signal, but before my trading hours. The second one was sneaky, price went like a bullet and didn't let me in. Third one, I played it, but I saw price bounce off a level, took a partial then got taken out at BE on the rest. Noticed one last signal on backtest, but I'm still not sure if it was actually a good one.

A bit more complicated on Nas too. Also a signal before hours, and another one late in the session that didn't check all the boxes. I was in front of it but didn't take it. Still figuring out if there's a way to add confluence so I can take this kind of setup with more confidence going forward.

Trades aren't as directional as usual lately. Be careful, and preserve your capital more than your gains right now.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

If you need a reminder: no one's going to hate on you because you did worse than them.

[1980’s Finance @1980Finance]

A leather chair. A wooden desk. A blonde secretary. A kilo of cocaine.

These were simpler times

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Ok so today, a bit frustrating.
I missed the first signal on Nas, needed to be sharp, it showed up 6 minutes after I actually sat down in front of the screen to start my session.
One second of inattention and the market doesn't wait for you.

Another signal on gold, but I'm still not sure if it can be considered valid.
Didn't see it live, just noticed it while backtesting. Worth digging into further.

Ended up playing that last signal on gold at the end of the session, but something didn't feel right.
Went to BE quickly, price took me out. I don't think that one was valid either.

Rough start to the week, and it fits well with how this end of July is shaping up so far.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Keep this in mind: sometimes a price going up doesn't mean value was created, or that you made a good investment decision by buying at the right moment.

Sometimes price goes up simply because a lot of people bought it, and keep buying it. That's called buying pressure.
And it can lead straight into a bubble.

The word "bubble" sounds foreign, like something that could never touch us.
But it's just the moment when the crowd, little by little, starts realizing the investment maybe wasn't as good as they thought.

There's also a demographic angle to this. The price of an asset can rise simply because more people have savings capacity today than they did yesterday.
That savings has to go somewhere, and a lot of it ends up in financial markets, pushing prices up.

But birth rates are in free fall.
What happens when the bulk of the working, saving, investing population retires and starts selling their investments to fund their old age, at the exact moment there aren't enough young adults earning and saving to buy what they're selling?

That's a bubble: when price stops reflecting real value, because there's too much money circulating relative to the actual goods.
Price becomes decoupled from reality, driven by factors that have nothing to do with the underlying investment itself.

One of my professors used to say: trees don't grow all the way to the sky.
I always felt that phrase was pure theory, that nobody could actually get caught out by something so obvious.

Then I learned that market cycles run longer than the average career of the people trading them.
Some generations live through conditions others simply never will.
And inexperience always leads to repeating the same mistakes, because for them, the past was never actually lived.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Every lecture I watch on finance says at one point, 'if efficient markets were true like everybody claims, then blah blah blah.'
At this point, can we agree that nobody actually believes in this efficiency anymore?

[ZamcoCapital @ZamcoCapital]

The Dark Side of Trading…

[Tom @t0mbfx]

Fake trading gurus have blood on their hands

Portraying trading as easy, leading people to believe that they can start with $50 and make $100,000s in a few months

It’s BS and has ruined more lives than you could imagine

How many aspiring traders have lost all of their money following fake trading gurus?

How many people have taken their lives after becoming financially ruined due to these gurus?

It’s a disgrace how these guys can talk about how easy trading is, sell get rich quick schemes and get away with it with 0 consequences

That’s why I don’t have many trader friends

And the ones I am friendly with, are actual good traders who don’t flex lambos and watches on social media trying to recruit people to join their BS signals

Can’t stand them

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

So today I missed the signal on gold, then another one came a few minutes later, almost the same trade but nowhere near the same momentum.

Always show up, and don't rely on a plan B.

Anyway, it did finish in TP.
Then I had another setup on Nas, but a deeper analysis would've let me avoid the BE, by paying attention to a level on the left that was very likely to push price down.

That said, if I'd seen that before entering the trade, I'm not even sure I would've played it in the first place. A 1:1 RR is a bit tight for my strategy.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

@CRTwithSaint Freedom
Loneliness
Introvertedness
Self-accountability
Becoming that person

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

The goal of every trader is to become an investor.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

@SJosephBurns Do not trust your SL.
Treat the money in your account as your real SL, and manage your risk accordingly.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

@DudeWhoInvests Stop with that gambler mentality dressed up as an investment question.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

@coldexecutlon Epic.
Exactly the mood right now.
If yields are making you nervous, wait until you see the household debt numbers.

[The Frum Finance Guy @FrumFinanceGuy]

Lately gold's been pretty tiring to trade, so I've turned a bit toward Nas.
It's been very challenging between yesterday and today.

The thing is, I run a momentum strategy.
I'm not supposed to have drawdown, or just a small one early in the trade, otherwise it's a bad sign.
Especially on an asset like Nas, which is supposed to be very directional.
But yesterday in particular, it kept going back and forth.

I had two signals back to back, and both ended up at BE because of price indecision before it finally committed to a direction.

Today was pretty much the same thing.
I did manage to secure a partial this time, to apply yesterday's lesson, but the bulk of the position ended up at BE before price reversed.

I had a few more signals later in today's session, but I was a bit less focused to play them.

[Atlas Press @realAtlasPress]

The purpose of art was once not to shock or transgress, but to elevate the soul.