FuelAustralia.org

An independent researcher — looking for solutions to the Australian fuel crisis

Open source intel, tanker tracking, and fuel reserve monitoring

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

Where does Australia stand?

A month ago I started doing some research, mostly to verify that fuel was still on its way to Australia, that we weren't on a 25-day countdown to zero, and that my Easter camping trip could go ahead (it did).

I released that data publicly and have been adding to it since. I've had a lot of messages asking me what I think will happen, but I decided to stay away from crystal-ball gazing and tried to let the data speak for itself.

Having now spent a month with my head in the data, I feel like I have a useful read on the situation. So I'll share where I think Australia stands right now, walking through the research that got me here.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker and reserve numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Fri 5 June

Today: Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire that Iran had linked to de-escalation, narrowing the path to ending the war, even as Trump talked up a US-Iran deal he says is days away.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~31d (28-34) | petrol ~45d (43-48) | jet ~24d (22-27)
🚢 42 AU-bound tankers en route, ~951 ML. Wider tracking: 3,825 vessels, ~109,093 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreed this week, leader Naim Kassem calling the talks "absurd, humiliating and insulting" and demanding Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon first. Israeli strikes killed four in Lebanon. Iran has tied its own ceasefire to a truce in Lebanon, so the rejection sets back hopes of ending the wider war keeping Hormuz contested. Washington Post, NPR.

• MARKET: Brent crude held near $97 a barrel on 4 June, little changed on the day, as modest optimism over a US-Iran deal was offset by the week's Gulf escalation. Trump said an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz could come within days or over the weekend. Reuters, CNBC.

👁 Watching: the IAEA's first report on Iran's nuclear program since February shows no major change, with Iran still barring access to facilities hit in the war. The nuclear file is any deal's hardest sticking point; watch whether it moves as Trump pushes for a weekend agreement. Reuters.

📅 Tomorrow: 6 June - DCCEEW's weekly reserves snapshot is expected, the first official update since 26 May.

My read: Trump keeps calling a deal to reopen Hormuz days away, but the ground says otherwise. The Lebanon ceasefire Iran had linked to its own de-escalation was just rejected by Hezbollah, the IAEA reports no movement on the nuclear file, and oil is holding its war-risk premium near $97 rather than pricing a breakthrough. Trump has made this same claim since 23 May; the deal is still unsigned, and Iran-linked reports said Tehran walked the message channel on 1 June. For Australia, nothing has changed, the chokepoint its imports lean on stays contested until something is actually signed.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

@dmichie66 @Rory_Johnston Thanks - will give it a watch later!

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Thu 4 June

Today: Iran's missile-and-drone barrage on Gulf states damaged Kuwait's main airport and killed one in one of the most intense escalations since April's ceasefire, while the US House passed its first war-powers resolution on the conflict.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~32d (29-34) | petrol ~46d (44-48) | jet ~25d (23-28)
🚢 45 AU-bound tankers en route, ~1,264 ML. Wider tracking: 3,726 vessels, ~107,998 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: The US and Iran traded strikes overnight, with US forces hitting a military site on Iran's Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran firing around 30 missiles and drones at Gulf targets. A terminal at Kuwait International Airport was damaged, killing one person and injuring at least 63; Kuwait called it "heinous Iranian aggression". It was one of the most intense escalations since April's ceasefire. Washington Post, Al Jazeera.

• POLICY: The US House passed a war powers resolution 215-208, four Republicans crossing over, directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran - the first such measure the House has passed since the war began. The measure is symbolic and faces a near-certain Trump veto. NPR, CNN.

• MARKET: Brent crude rose to around $97 a barrel as the renewed US-Iran clashes cast fresh doubt on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters.

👁 Watching: Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it struck the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, which US Central Command denies. Iran also denies hitting Kuwait's civilian terminal, blaming a failed air-defence interception; Kuwait blames Iran. Al Jazeera, CENTCOM.

My read: Iran named Israel's war in Lebanon as its reason to suspend talks and threaten Hormuz on 1 June. That front moved toward a US-brokered ceasefire this week, yet Iran escalated in the Gulf anyway - so the confrontation now runs on its own momentum, not a single pretext. The escalation hit Gulf states and a civilian airport, not the strait's traffic: Hormuz is still throttled to a fraction of pre-war traffic, and Trump says talks continue. For Australia the danger today is not a fresh closure but a widening Gulf war that keeps the chokepoint contested and the risk premium sitting in the oil it imports.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker and reserve numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker and reserve numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Wed 3 June

Today: The US disabled another Iran-bound oil tanker under its blockade, while Trump denied the talks had collapsed and his Secretary of State told the Senate that reopening Hormuz alone would win Iran no sanctions relief.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~32d (30-34) | petrol ~46d (44-48) | jet ~26d (24-28)
🚢 50 AU-bound tankers en route, ~1,528 ML. Wider tracking: 3,612 vessels, ~103,743 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: US forces disabled the Botswana-flagged unladen oil tanker M/T Lexie with a missile to its engine room on 2 June as it headed for Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal, having ignored warnings over 24 hours, CENTCOM said. That takes the blockade's tally to six vessels disabled and 122 redirected since 13 April. CENTCOM, BBC News.

• GEOPOLITICAL: Washington pushed back on Iran's claim it had walked away. Trump called reports the talks had stopped "false and erroneous", saying they had run continuously, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate that reopening Hormuz is a precondition for nuclear talks that could run months, not a sanctions-relief trigger on its own - any relief is tied to Iran curbing its nuclear program. Iran has not answered the proposed final text. Washington Post, Reuters.

👁 Watching: responsibility for the blast that crippled the container ship MSC Sariska V off Umm Qasr on 1 June is still disputed. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims a cruise-missile strike on a "US-owned" vessel; MSC, the operator, says the ship was hit by two projectiles but rejects that justification, calling itself a neutral carrier. An Iraqi investigation is under way. Iran International, Reuters.

My read: today was the US answer to Iran's reported walk-out on Monday - force, a firmer public line, and no concession. It disabled another tanker, and through Rubio set its terms: a reopened strait alone buys Iran nothing without the nuclear file. So the gap from Monday has not closed - Iran says shut the strait, the US says reopen first and talk later - only sharpened. For Australia the supply that lands here is still exposed to a chokepoint both sides are fighting over, by force and by terms.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

We're sitting at a precarious moment.

Iran has threatened to widen the fight to Bab al-Mandab, the Red Sea chokepoint. Historically, a large proportion of Australia's fuel has come through a single chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. This would put a second in the firing line.

This is exactly why I've spent time rebuilding my tanker tracking from the ground up - still using open sources only - so we can all see what's on the way.

It now follows individual voyages rather than one-off snapshots, and I've added far more port monitoring around the world. This allows me to pick up more ships, earlier in their voyage - at load ports and transit hubs overseas - then follow them the whole way through to where they berth in Australia.

You can see it live - every AU-bound voyage: https://t.co/m1jsdmtp3s

And if this deteriorates further, there's a new layer coming that matters most in exactly that scenario. Not ready to show it yet. Soon.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker and reserve numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Tue 2 June

Today: Iran said it was suspending its indirect talks with the US and vowed to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, blaming Israel's offensive in Lebanon; Trump played it down and oil jumped.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~33d (31-35) | petrol ~47d (45-48) | jet ~26d (25-29)
🚢 71 AU-bound tankers en route, ~2,708 ML. Wider tracking: 3,544 vessels, ~100,182 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: Tasnim, an IRGC-linked outlet, said Tehran suspended message exchanges with Washington through mediators on 1 June and, with its allies, had "resolved to pursue the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz" plus other fronts including Bab al-Mandab, blaming Israel's offensive in Lebanon. Trump played it down, saying Iran "really wants to make a deal" and that the US would keep its blockade. Reuters, NBC News.

• GEOPOLITICAL: The fighting ran on alongside the rupture. CENTCOM said it struck Iranian radar and drone-control sites at Goruk and Qeshm Island over the weekend after Iran downed a US drone; the Revolutionary Guard said it fired on a US airbase in Kuwait in retaliation, and the US said it intercepted the missiles. Al Jazeera, CENTCOM.

• MARKET: Brent crude rose more than 4 per cent on Monday to settle near $95 a barrel after the suspension, snapping back from May's selloff. CNBC.

👁 Watching: Iran's Revolutionary Guard claims it hit a "US-owned" commercial ship - the Panama-flagged MSC Sariska V - with a cruise missile off Umm Qasr, Iraq, on 1 June. The claim is unconfirmed and being amplified by Iranian and Russian state media; UKMTO logged an unknown projectile. Al Jazeera, UKMTO.

My read: yesterday the US raised its demands; today Iran walked, on a new pretext - not the funds or uranium that stalled the deal, but Israel's war in Lebanon. The threat to widen the fight to Bab al-Mandab would stack a second chokepoint on the Hormuz one Australia's fuel already runs through. For now the closure is a threat, not a fact: the strait is already throttled to a fraction of pre-war traffic, and Trump played it down. But oil snapped back sharply from May's selloff.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

Unfortunately, I can't get cargo manifests, so per-ship volumes are estimated from vessel type and capacity, not declared loads (exact methodology shown on website). The fuel-type split (diesel vs petrol vs jet) is the hardest piece - I can confirm it for some ships from shipping and port-side intelligence, but not all of them, so an "arrived, by fuel type" graph would imply more precision than open-source data honestly supports.

What I can show more accurately now is tanker counts and aggregate inbound volume. I recently rebuilt the entire tanker tracking system around individual voyages and added substantially more port monitoring worldwide, so I pick ships up earlier and follow them through to Australian ports - that's live on the supply chain page.

https://t.co/B2UUdhRx67

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Mon 1 June

Today: With the deal stuck, Trump raised his demands rather than sign it, sending Iran a tougher draft that asks Tehran to give up more on frozen funds, mines and uranium.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~36d (32-38) | petrol ~49d (46-50) | jet ~29d (26-31)
🚢 69 AU-bound tankers en route, ~2,708 ML. Wider tracking: 3,662 vessels, ~104,185 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: Trump toughened the draft framework to end the Iran war and sent it back to Iran rather than sign, US officials told the New York Times and Axios. He balked at provisions unfreezing Iranian funds, and hardened the terms on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, on clearing the mines the US attributes to Iran, and on removing Iran's highly enriched uranium. The framework would end the US-Israeli bombing campaign in return for Iran lifting its Hormuz blockade; it is unsigned, and exchanges could run for days. New York Times, Axios.

• INTEL: On 30 May Oman's Maritime Security Centre warned of a suspected drifting naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz's western approaches, urging vessels to keep clear - a hazard flagged by a neutral Gulf state after a week of US accusations of Iranian mine-laying that Iran denies and NBC says US searches have not confirmed. It lands as Trump's tougher terms demand Iran clear the strait of mines. Oman Maritime Security Centre, Al Arabiya.

👁 Watching: Iran International reports, citing one official, that President Masoud Pezeshkian asked Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to let him resign, saying the Revolutionary Guard has sidelined the elected government. The presidential office denies it. Watch whether it firms up or is knocked down over the coming days.

My read: with the deal stuck, the US raised its price instead of signing. Trump's tougher draft leans on the three things Iran has been least willing to give - the frozen funds it wants released, the uranium it refuses to surrender, and a strait it now controls by permit. That makes the move read less like a path to yes and more like a harder test of whether Iran will fold. The week's other new signal cuts the same way: a reported, and denied, attempt by Iran's president to resign over the Revolutionary Guard's grip would, if real, hand the hardliners who run Hormuz even more control. For Australia the supply that lands here still turns on that one chokepoint - the constant the war has not moved in three months.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

@dmichie66 "stuck"

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker and reserve numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

@dmichie66 What are your thoughts on this - peace deal or escalation?

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Sat 30 May

Today: Trump's two-hour Situation Room meeting on 29 May ended with no decision on a short-term Iran deal, even as the US Navy warned of military operations in the Strait of Hormuz over Iran's alleged mine-laying; Brent headed for its worst month since 2020, and Australia's first official reserves snapshot since 19 May showed petrol cover firmer.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~37d (34-38) | petrol ~49d (47-50) | jet ~29d (27-31)
🚢 67 AU-bound tankers en route, ~2,699 ML. Wider tracking: 3,811 vessels, ~116,052 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: Trump met his team in the White House Situation Room for about two hours on 29 May to make a "final determination" on a deal to pause the Iran war, then ended it without one. He said Iran must never hold a nuclear weapon and the Strait of Hormuz must reopen to unrestricted traffic with no tolls, and that the US naval blockade "will now be lifted". Iran's foreign ministry said there is "no final agreement". CNBC, ABC, Al Jazeera.

• GEOPOLITICAL: US Naval Forces Central Command warned, in maritime advisories issued 29 May, of military operations in the Strait of Hormuz north of Oman's Musandam Peninsula, accusing Iran of mine-laying that endangers shipping. It said vessels "engaging in or supporting mine-laying activities" "will be targeted by U.S. forces", and that non-compliant ships may be treated as an "imminent threat". It follows Iran firing warning shots at four vessels on 28 May. NAVCENT, gCaptain.

• MARKET: Brent traded down about 2 per cent toward $91-92 on 29 May, heading for its worst month since 2020, a fall of nearly 17 per cent, as traders priced the prospect of a Hormuz-reopening deal. CNBC, The National.

• OPERATIONAL: DCCEEW published its first weekly minimum-stockholding snapshot since 19 May. In raw cover it put petrol at 48 days (up from 43), diesel at 36 (down from 38) and jet at 30 (down from 31) - petrol firmer, diesel and jet slightly lower. Effective cover, which also credits in-pipeline imports, sits a little higher, as the reserves line shows. DCCEEW.

My read: deal-decision day produced no decision, and the two tracks pulled apart. The market is pricing the deal anyway - Brent is heading for its weakest month in six years, and a US official told CBS the sides have agreed broad principles. Against that, Iran says there is "no final agreement", and on the same day the US Navy warned of operations in Hormuz citing Iranian mine-laying that, by NBC's account, its own searches have not confirmed. The strait the deal would reopen is the one the US is now threatening to enter by force. At home the data is steadier than the diplomacy - the first reserves snapshot in 11 days holds cover firm, with jet still the tightest fuel.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker and reserve numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Sun 31 May

Today: Iran's armed forces reasserted full control of Hormuz and disputed the deal's terms, the US disabled another blockade-running ship and said it was ready to resume the war, and Trump's decision stayed deferred - while at home the government extended its 20 per cent reserve-release measure to September.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~36d (33-37) | petrol ~49d (46-50) | jet ~29d (26-31)
🚢 69 AU-bound tankers en route, ~2,708 ML. Wider tracking: 3,757 vessels, ~110,507 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: Iran's armed forces declared full authority over the Strait of Hormuz on 30 May, saying all commercial vessels and tankers must use Iranian-designated routes and obtain Revolutionary Guard permission or jeopardise their safe passage. Tehran also disputed the terms Trump has described: Fars said the "no tolls" clause is not in the deal text, demanded immediate release of $12bn in frozen assets, and called his uranium-removal claim "fundamentally baseless". Al Jazeera, Fars.

• GEOPOLITICAL: US forces disabled the Gambia-flagged cargo ship Lian Star in the Gulf of Oman overnight on 30 May after it ignored warnings and tried to reach an Iranian port, firing on its engine room and leaving it adrift. The US said it was the sixth ship it has stopped from breaching its blockade of Iran's ports since 17 April. AP, CENTCOM.

• GEOPOLITICAL: Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US was "more than capable" of resuming the war if no deal is reached, with stockpiles "more than suited for that, both there and around the globe". Trump's "final determination", deferred after Friday's two-hour Situation Room meeting, remained pending; an official said he would sign only a deal guaranteeing Iran can never build a nuclear weapon. Euronews, PBS.

• POLICY: Australia extended its temporary 20 per cent reduction to fuel companies' minimum stockholding obligation for petrol and diesel until 30 September, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said. The measure, in place since March and due to expire at the end of June, frees up to 762 million litres to support regional supply. DCCEEW.

My read: at the decision point, the gap between the deal Trump describes and the one Iran will accept only hardened. The deal he is weighing would lift the blockade and reopen the strait with no tolls - yet Iran reasserted full control of Hormuz and dug in on all three sticking points (tolls, the $12bn in frozen assets, and its uranium), while the US disabled a sixth blockade-running ship and said it was ready to resume the war. Both sides spent the weekend doing the opposite of the deal. The market is pricing it anyway: May was Brent's worst month since 2020, and a tentative 60-day framework reached on 28 May sits unsigned. At home, the government extended its reserve-release measure to September rather than let it lapse - defending cover through policy, not inertia.

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

What I can't see still matters. Shadow-fleet movements, confidential industry declarations, vessels still over the horizon. Treat the tanker numbers as a visibility floor.

For live tracking of reserves, tankers + every source quoted, visit https://t.co/8aWyH8wrG9

[FuelAustralia.org @FuelAustralia]

⛽ Daily Bulletin - Fri 29 May

Today: The deal and the conflict moved together on 28 May - negotiators reportedly reached a 60-day ceasefire-extension deal pending Trump approval, even as the US struck Iranian drones near Hormuz, Iran launched a missile at a US airbase that Kuwait intercepted, and the US Treasury sanctioned more of Iran's oil trade.
📊 Reserves (effective): diesel ~34d (30-37) | petrol ~41d (38-43) | jet ~26d (23-29)
🚢 64 AU-bound tankers en route, ~2,686 ML. Wider tracking: 4,407 vessels, ~140,977 ML.

📰 Today's signals

• GEOPOLITICAL: US forces intercepted five Iranian attack drones over Hormuz on 28 May and struck a ground-control station near Bandar Abbas to stop a sixth launch, which CENTCOM called defensive. Iran said it targeted a US airbase in reply; CENTCOM said Kuwaiti forces intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile. Iran also fired warning shots at four ships transiting without its clearance; Tasnim said one was an American oil tanker. It was the second US strike in three days. Euronews, Reuters, CENTCOM, Tasnim.

• POLICY: The US Treasury sanctioned eight tankers and 16 entities over Iran's military oil trade on 28 May, a day after designating the IRGC-linked Persian Gulf Strait Authority running the Hormuz toll regime. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is no sanctions relief unless Iran reopens Hormuz, hands over its enriched uranium and drops its nuclear program. Treasury, Washington Examiner.

• GEOPOLITICAL: Negotiators reached a 60-day memorandum to extend the ceasefire and open nuclear talks, four sources told Reuters, with the strait to be de-mined and reopened, Iran free to sell oil, and the US blockade lifted in exchange. Trump has yet to approve it. Reuters, AP, Axios.

• MARKET: Brent settled down 58 cents at $93.71 on 28 May and WTI rose 22 cents to $88.90, a mixed close on the conflicting ceasefire signals despite the day's strikes. Brent is tracking a second straight weekly decline. Reuters, CNBC.

• POLICY: Australia leased its first strategic-fleet vessel, the container ship ANL Kokoda, which Transport Minister Catherine King said can be requisitioned in emergencies. It cannot carry bulk liquid fuel; the government hopes later ships in the planned 12-vessel fleet will move petrol and diesel. Capital Brief, ABC.

My read: both tracks intensified at once. For it: a negotiator-level 60-day memorandum is more concrete than last week's announce-shortly claims, and the market priced the deal over the strikes, leaving Brent lower on the week. Against it: Trump has not signed, and the same day his administration struck Iran, sanctioned its oil fleet, and restated three hard preconditions. The gap between negotiators agreeing and a President signing while his Treasury and military escalate is the risk. For Australia, the warning shots at commercial shipping are a more direct supply signal than the base exchange, and even a signed deal has a 30-day mine-clearance step before unrestricted shipping. The DCCEEW reserves print is due tomorrow, first since 19 May.