J

If I can't be Henry Sugar, this'll do

[J @FullKelly1]

@bookiebashnet Can you check DMs please.

[J @FullKelly1]

Nothing on atm so swingy days.

[J @FullKelly1]

Unbelievably reading. Still pretty naive on this stuff but can’t believe it’s legal (and actually happening)

[Silicon Valley Fodder @Playerinthgame]

Here's my promised explainer. Doing my best to synthesize a lot of info here so check all my info; don't rely on it
So - the SpaceX IPO (SPCX:NASDAQ)

1/ Normally, a company with a massive valuation has to wait months to a year after its IPO before index funds are allowed to buy

[J @FullKelly1]

Quiet day, -40% ROI. Good EV for basically dead day of sport so no complaints.

[J @FullKelly1]

@quarterfirst4 @nickgoff79 Great for specific uses, and better than GPT generally imo. Need to be a bit careful on standard pro plan though because I've had times I've burnt through my usage limits by accident (which I never did with GPT).

[J @FullKelly1]

@PoissonCapital Only 1-10? Rookie

[J @FullKelly1]

Sums up the entire betting experience to be honest. Constant grind to occasionally get the big day where everything lines up and you're back in line with EV again.

[J @FullKelly1]

May breakdown. Solid month and nice to overperform EV. Frustrating to give back a lot of the money after peaking at around 25k early on. I think in the first 5 days I went 20k from 3k EV, then the remaining 26 I went -2.5k from 7.25k EV. Swingy game and behind EV again.

[J @FullKelly1]

Now back to behind EV again on the year which is a bit of a grind. Still on track for the 100k, but need to account for the fact that sport will die down a bit after the WC so need to make good progress in the next few months.

[J @FullKelly1]

Positive day to finish out the month fortunately. Nothing super significant, breakdown of the month incoming which is probably more interesting.

[J @FullKelly1]

@Tombrownlee @SJWWEngland Sure, but if this is the new BB advertising strategy then you could have some control over where it'll be posted?

[J @FullKelly1]

@Tombrownlee Why are you blowing up the exchange volume and posting for people who follow you but aren't subbed to BB? Not even sure it counts as advertising when you're just posting fair odds and not even posting about BB?

[J @FullKelly1]

@Tombrownlee Cheers Tom, messaged BB twitter and will try get in touch with Vivi. Would appreciate your response though (or at least a message on the BB site that this is the new direction) seeing as this directly negatively impacts BB subscribers?

[J @FullKelly1]

@SJWWEngland @Tombrownlee If those people look in to Tom's twitter account over the last week they'll see him deliberately posting -EV bets. At the very least it'd be better advertising to be doing these directly from the BB account which has more accountability.

[J @FullKelly1]

@SJWWEngland @Tombrownlee Hardly, it being the champions league final means there's actually a chance to get decent stakes matched and he's doing more harm.

There's tons of people who will be following him and not bothering to price up these markets themselves, when they get involved it kills the prices

[J @FullKelly1]

God news is that no matter how bad I get at betting, it can always be worse

[Mikita @mikita_crypto]

spotted what looks like a 9% arbitrage in the Men's French Open market

if you combine the 4 main favorites:
Sinner, Zverev, Djokovic, and Khodar, they only add up to 91% implied probability

buy 100k shares in each → spend $91k total → collect $100k if any of them wins.

that’s a $9k profit, or roughly 9% return before June 7.

the remaining players share the other 9%. Theoretically possible, but the probability feels close to zero

NFA, but I’m probably trying it

market:
https://t.co/IGZwsIyAHC

[J @FullKelly1]

Great progress on my gallant mission to turn May in to a mid month. At least there's still EV around after end of prem.

[J @FullKelly1]

Greatest to ever do it