spruce_g00se

Monster huge wooden crypto trading captain..

Personal opinions & TA log. Not financial advice.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$SPX could you survive this? Just one scenario (6 in 1), but worth considering. Shiller PE ratio indicates market as over-valued as Feb '99, one or two higher highs will put it in bubble territory similar to dot-com boom.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$SPX is it this obvious? Must we back test the pre-covid high?

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$SPX ES1 red diagonal solidly broken, it's difficult not to be macro bullish into 2025 here.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$ETH I really don't like this breakout failure and long-term double top at $5K. Reconsidering. Short-term it looks like a strong bounce, but unless it regains that red line soon we are probably cooked.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

My view on $ETH: clear breakout, only 2nd time since 2016 a pattern this big has broken, alignment of extensions $9K & $14K, 4 - 6 months target is $9k, $14K is possible longer term (2028) but that's only another 58% upside.. if we do hit $9K by April 2026-ish I will be exiting.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$BTC I think top is in, exited all BTC longs. Bottom-to-top and halving-to-top durations very consistent last two cycles. I see no reason this one should be different. Hit my target range of $110k - $150k, I sold half at $117k and will be happy to be 100% out above $100k.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$BTC the trend has been that halving-to-top times are increasing with each cycle. Logical that we see 550 days+ this time, so Oct 2025 or later. Despite the massive month of price growth just passed, I don't realistically expect a top higher than $150k.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$BTC we're in the target range, time and price per this post 18 months ago, rotation to $ETH is occurring, market feels bullish and there is likely one last push to $150k, but we are 500 days since the last halving and it's time to at least place some laddered sell orders on $BTC

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$TQQQ approaching original target, starting to risk-off. NDQ has some blue-sky space to run, but getting into bubble territory, more risk of a big dive. Still expect NDQ to 30k and TQQQ to $170 without a major trigger/black swan. Maybe a blow-off top type run before the crash.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$TQQQ largest drawdown in the history of this ETF, and I think it will go lower before we're done. Might be testing those of us who consider long-term-hold of this to be a good plan. At some point it will find a new parallel channel to climb in so I will buy it all the way down.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$TQQQ up 158% from Jan 2023 entry. Some bearish divergence on 1D but we are well inside the rising channel. With $SPX and $NDQ charts in blue skies, macro bull, I see no reason not to hold onto this one.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

❤️

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

😎

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$GBTC has tracked the market perfectly in both directions during a relatively volatile up/down. Why there is still $2bn sitting in $BITO is a mystery to me, it is clearly failing to track the market by a material percentage when there are much better options available.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$GBTC vs $BITO - asset-backed vs futures ETF. When BTC went +90.7% / -23.2%, $GBTC went +90.6% /-23.3% and $BITO went +81.8% / -31.1%. If you held $BITO, you just lost 15.7% of your investment value relative to the market. That's the product Gensler thought was safer for us!

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

If I told you $TSLA could dip to $60 or slightly below by the end of the year, would you be upset? Would you buy?

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

I've never been a $TSLA holder, I just didn't see an entry opportunity at a reasonable R:R. If I'm going to hold it in future, it'll be for buying in this range at bargain P/E (for a tech company) on .786 or .886 retrace.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

$NFLX if this was a big trade I would take half off the table now, approaching ATH, but with macro looking bullish I'm happy to hold this long term.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

Never owned $NFLX but this looks like a great buy area. Haven't seen P/E this low since 2011-12, and it's approaching the base of the long-term channel. I'm happy to buy while everyone else is panic selling, from here down to $150.. target $3k in mid to late 2020's.

[spruce_g00se @G00seSpruce]

Am I doing this right? Low was $164 not $150, sorry..