PricingMonkey

Co-Founder PricingMonkey, Vol analytics, F&O, Global Markets, Backtesting & Trading Ideas.

[PricingMonkey @G65]

https://t.co/ac1ICOXIx0

[PricingMonkey @G65]

https://t.co/aMhG1EfAv1

[PricingMonkey @G65]

@btcjvs @Keir_Starmer UK 10y >5% isn’t new territory, the spread vs UST is what’s actually moving.
Gilts now ~90bps cheap vs Treasuries, at the wide end of the cycle and on the move.
Feels more like relative repricing than “it’s over”

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Credit creation and demographics drive inflation over cycles.

Right now neither is especially inflationary:

Credit is constrained
Demographics are aging

What we’re seeing is shock-driven inflation (energy, tariffs), not a structural 1970s setup.

I expect that's why SFR rates markets still lean toward slowdown, not sustained inflation.

[PricingMonkey @G65]

🇬🇧 UK Growth Daily Pulse

Growth Driver: Monthly GDP (Jan 2026)
Latest: 0.0% MoM
Prev: +0.1% (Dec 2025)
Change: Down
Key Driver: Services (flat) / Production (-0.1%)

Key Data Today: No major UK release
⚠️ TOMORROW (16 Apr): Monthly GDP Feb 2026
Exposure: Broad activity — services, construction, production

Pre-Data Read: Mixed / Downside bias
PMIs fell sharply in March (Composite 53.9 → 51.0). Retail sales dropped -0.4% in Feb. Middle East / energy headwinds add uncertainty.

Growth Signal: Weakening

Market Read:
2Y Gilts elevated — BoE April 30 ~90% hold; rate cut path pushed out by energy-driven inflation risk (CPI seen rising to ~3.5% in Q2/Q3). GBP under pressure as UK 2026 growth forecast cut to 0.7% from 1.2%. FTSE 250 exposed to domestic growth slowdown; FTSE 100 insulated by energy/defensive tilt.

Trigger Flags:
⚠️ Two consecutive growth-sensitive releases weakening — GDP flat (Jan), PMI Composite 51.0 in Mar (down from 53.9 in Feb)
⚠️ Consumer spending deteriorating — Retail sales -0.4% MoM Feb, first drop in 3 months
⚠️ Pay growth at 5-year low — 3.8% (down from 4.2%), limits household consumption support
⚠️ UK 2026 growth forecast cut to 0.7% (from 1.2%) — Middle East conflict + energy price

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Worth watching closely.
P.S. PricingMonkey users — drop a comment or DM if you want copies of my Futures "MOVE" calculations. Happy to share 🐒📊
#RatesMarkets #MacroTrading #BondMarkets #Volatility #GlobalMacro

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Something quietly significant is happening in global rates markets.
US vol and EU vol just converged in absolute terms.
But the percentile story tells a completely different picture. 👇

[PricingMonkey @G65]

For rates traders: the RV case writes itself. For macro investors: the harder question is whether EU vol is cheap vs the risk it's pricing — or signalling sovereign stress the headline indices are missing. 🤔

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Strong take - but I’d frame it slightly differently.
This feels less like a fiscal “breaking point” and more like a repricing of fiscal risk. The BoE hasn’t tightened, but the market has - Sonia and via the long end.
What’s interesting is that this is happening without a clear inflation breakout. Feels more like term premium + supply + credibility being tested than a classic macro cycle.

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Was 3.20% an overshoot on fear — or is 3.55% the new floor for this cycle? 🤔
Market commentary, not financial advice.
#RatesMarkets #BankOfEngland #SONIA #MacroTrading

[PricingMonkey @G65]

That was quick. ⚡
On Friday, UK rate markets were pricing SONIA falling to ~3.20% into early 2027. Today, that trough is closer to 3.55%.
That's a ~35–40bp shift in BoE policy expectations — in days.

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Just days ago markets were leaning into a growth scare.
Now we're back to "shallower, later" easing.
In rate markets, regime shifts can happen fast. This was one of them.

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Growth-caution signal. Not a commodity supercycle.

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Gold is holding. Silver is lagging. The dollar is bid.
That's not an inflation trade. That's something more specific. 🧵

[PricingMonkey @G65]

Silver underperformance is the tell.
This isn't a synchronized inflation breakout. It's defensive rotation inside a stronger dollar regime.
If real yields fall meaningfully, silver's beta re-expands fast. But with DXY firm + 5Y real yields stable: gold holds, silver lags.