Gold Crown Politics

Political Forecaster / YouTube (29K)

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

Looks like we’ll now be truly unburdened by what has been.

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

Good news! We will never have to hear this cackling again. Trump really saved us from years of cringe

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

I told you what would happen, Allan. All the way back in September.

@AllanLichtman

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

You’ve just made the biggest miscalculation of your political career. Mark my words, Allan. Your 13 Keys will be proven wrong in November.

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

2024 U.S. Governor Map Prediction (11/4/24):

🔴REP: 8
🔵DEM: 3

Key Races:
🔴NH: Ayotte +5.5
🔵NC: Stein +5.7

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

🚨2024 U.S. House Map Prediction (11/4/24):

🔴REP: 231 seats (+27) ✅
🔵DEM: 204 seats

House Vote Share:
🔴REP: 51.1% (+5.0)
🔵DEM: 46.1%
🟣THIRD PARTY: 2.8%

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

Wow. Didn’t know Dartmouth was trying to one-up Selzer for worst poll of the year.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

#New General election poll - New Hampshire

🔵 Harris 62% (+28)
🔴 Trump 34%

Dartmouth college #C - 587 LV - 11/3

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

A day before the 2024 election, I have decided to slightly change the margins for my official Senate map. I was not expecting any last-minute data that came in would affect the model, but it has.

I am now predicting a 57-43 GOP Senate majority for 2024. AZ will now be classified as tilt R in my final Senate forecast.

Here are my newly updated OFFICIAL Senate margins for the 2024 election. (I am only listing the ones with changed margins from the original post. All other states remain the same margins.)

🔴WI: Hovde +2.9
🔴MI: Rogers +3.2
🔴PA: McCormick +3.3
🔴NV: Brown +2.1
🔴AZ: Lake +0.2
🔵ME: King +12.1

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

🚨2024 Senate Map Prediction (11/3/24):

🔴REP: 56 seats (+12) ✅
🔵DEM: 44 seats

Key Races:
🔴MT: Sheehy +11.9
🔴OH: Moreno +6.0
🔴NE: Fischer +13.1
🔴TX: Cruz +8.1
🔴FL: Scott +11.4
🔴WI: Hovde +5.4
🔴MI: Rogers +2.7
🔴PA: McCormick +2.8
🔴NV: Brown +3.6
🔵AZ: Gallego +0.8
🔵MN: Klobuchar +12.9
🔵NY: Gillibrand +13.1
🔵NJ: Kim +12.0
🔵MD: Alsobrooks +7.7
🔵VA: Kaine +3.5
🔵NM: Heinrich +3.5

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

🚨2024 Senate Map Prediction (11/3/24):

🔴REP: 56 seats (+12) ✅
🔵DEM: 44 seats

Key Races:
🔴MT: Sheehy +11.9
🔴OH: Moreno +6.0
🔴NE: Fischer +13.1
🔴TX: Cruz +8.1
🔴FL: Scott +11.4
🔴WI: Hovde +5.4
🔴MI: Rogers +2.7
🔴PA: McCormick +2.8
🔴NV: Brown +3.6
🔵AZ: Gallego +0.8
🔵MN: Klobuchar +12.9
🔵NY: Gillibrand +13.1
🔵NJ: Kim +12.0
🔵MD: Alsobrooks +7.7
🔵VA: Kaine +3.5
🔵NM: Heinrich +3.5

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

🚨Gold Crown Politics👑 OFFICIAL 2024 Election Forecast (11/2/24):

Electoral College:
🔴Trump: 312 ✅
🔵 Harris: 226

National Vote Share:
🔴Trump: 50.6% (+4.0)
🔵Harris: 46.6%
🟣Third Party: 2.8%

Swing States:
🔴WI: Trump +6.9
🔴MI: Trump +5.1
🔴PA: Trump +6.3
🔴NC: Trump +8.8
🔴GA: Trump +7.3
🔴AZ: Trump +8.2
🔴NV: Trump +8.1

Red States:
🔴TX: Trump +14.1
🔴FL: Trump +15.9
🔴IA: Trump +16.2
🔴OH: Trump +17.0

Blue States:
🔵MN: Harris +0.6
🔵NH: Harris +0.4
🔵ME: Harris +0.6
🔵NM: Harris +1.3
🔵VA: Harris +1.6
🔵HI: Harris +15.0
🔵CO: Harris +9.0
🔵IL: Harris +7.5
🔵NY: Harris +9.6
🔵NJ: Harris +5.4

Districts:
🔴ME-2: Trump +16.9
🔵NE-2: Harris +1.1

(All state margins will be posted on YouTube)

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

I will be dropping my final 2024 election predictions soon on both Youtube and X. Stay tuned.

Nov 2 - Electoral College Map
Nov 3 - Senate Map
Nov 4 - House + Governors Map

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

2024 Vote Share Model:
(10/31/24):

🔴Trump: 50.7% (+3.9)
🔵Harris: 46.8%

Daily Average: 🔴Trump +3.88
7-Day Average: 🔴Trump +3.96

The race is stabilizing at about Trump +4 nationally in my model which would lead to a blowout win for Trump in the electoral college. I have no doubt in my mind that Trump is winning this race as the swing states are gone for Harris. Now the conversation turns to how many deep blue states like MN, NH, NM or VA could flip red.

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

2024 Election Forecast
(10/30/24):

Electoral College:
🔴Trump: 312 ✅
🔵Harris: 226

National Vote Share:
🔴Trump: 50.6% (+3.9)
🔵Harris: 46.7%
🟣Third Party: 2.7

Swing States:
🔴WI: Trump +7.3
🔴MI: Trump +5.1
🔴PA: Trump +6.7
🔴NC: Trump +8.7
🔴GA: Trump +7.2
🔴AZ: Trump +8.1
🔴NV: Trump +7.0

Red States:
🔴TX: Trump +14.9
🔴FL: Trump +15.8
🔴IA: Trump +16.6
🔴OH: Trump +17.4

Blue States:
🔵MN: Harris +0.7
🔵NH: Harris +0.5
🔵ME: Harris +0.7
🔵NM: Harris +1.4
🔵VA: Harris +2.2
🔵HI: Harris +14.9
🔵CO: Harris +9.1
🔵IL: Harris +7.6
🔵NY: Harris +9.7
🔵NJ: Harris +5.0

Districts:
🔴ME-2: Trump +16.8
🔵NE-2: Harris +1.2

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

Trump Favorability (RCP):

🔴2016: 38.6%
🔴2020: 41.8%
🔴2024: 45.8%

He gets stronger every cycle.

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

For clarification, Trump leads by +3.7 in this model taking a 1 week average. That is my official PV margin

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

2024 National Vote Share:

🔴 Trump: 50.8% (+4.1)
🔵 Harris: 46.7%
🟣 Third Party: 2.5%

Trump is continuing to expand his Popular Vote lead now to +4 points in the latest update for my model. The recent national shift is favoring Trump as he is gaining everywhere and has major momentum closing out this race.

He has now crossed the 50% mark which would easily be the best national performance of his political career.

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

2024 Election Forecast Update:
(10/26/24):

Electoral College:
🔴 Trump: 312 ✅
🔵 Harris: 226

National Vote Share:
🔴 Trump: 50.4% (+3.7)
🔵 Harris: 46.7%
🟣 Third Party: 2.9%

Swing States:
🔴 WI: Trump +7.1
🔴 MI: Trump +4.9
🔴 PA: Trump +6.5
🔴 NC: Trump +8.5
🔴 GA: Trump +6.5
🔴 AZ: Trump +8.4
🔴 NV: Trump +7.3

Red States:
🔴 TX: Trump +14.8
🔴 FL: Trump +15.6
🔴 IA: Trump +16.4
🔴 OH: Trump +17.2

Blue States:
🔵 MN: Harris +0.9
🔵 NH: Harris +0.3
🔵 ME: Harris +0.9
🔵 NM: Harris +1.7
🔵 VA: Harris +2.5
🔵 HI: Harris +13.4
🔵 CO: Harris +9.4
🔵 IL: Harris +7.9
🔵 NY: Harris +8.9
🔵 NJ: Harris +4.8
🔵 CA: Harris +19.5

Districts:
🔴 ME-2: Trump +17.6
🔵 NE-2: Harris +0.5

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

🚨Gold Crown Politics OFFICIAL 2024 ELECTION PREDICTION:

As a political forecaster, I’m now officially calling the race for Trump. I project he wins 2024.

I was meaning to do this sooner, but it doesn’t make much of a difference now. Trump is running away with this race, and you guys won’t believe how much he leads my national average now. Stay tuned!

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

Wall Street Journal now has Trump +3. Their last national poll in 2020 had Biden +10. Wow.

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

RCP Polling Shift In Swing States from Final 2 weeks to Election Day:

2016 RCP: (🔴+3.73 R shift)
🔵Clinton +3.99 —> Clinton +0.26

‘16 Swing State Results:
🔴Trump +1.66

2020 RCP: (🔴+2.04 R shift)
🔵Biden +4.07 —> Biden +2.03

‘20 Swing State Results:
🔵Biden +0.9

2024 RCP: (?)
🔴Trump +1.03 —> ?

‘24 Swing State Results:
(?)

—————————————————
The state polls typically get redder in the final 2 weeks before Election Day, and STILL underestimate Trump. He currently leads the 2024 swing states by an average of 1 pt in RCP. I’d say it’s likely he ends up leading them by an average of 3-5 pts on Election Day and still gets underestimated. Works like clockwork.

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

2024 Election Forecast
(10/21/24):

Electoral College:
🔴 Trump: 312 ✅
🔵 Harris: 226

National Vote Share:
🔴 Trump: 50.1% (+3.2)
🔵 Harris: 46.9%
🟣 Third Party: 3.0%

Swing States:
🔴 WI: Trump +7.1
🔴 MI: Trump +4.9
🔴 PA: Trump +6.0
🔴 NC: Trump +8.0
🔴 GA: Trump +6.5
🔴 AZ: Trump +7.9
🔴 NV: Trump +7.3

Red States:
🔴 TX: Trump +14.3
🔴 FL: Trump +15.1
🔴 IA: Trump +15.9
🔴 OH: Trump +16.7

Blue States:
🔵 MN: Harris +1.4
🔵 NH: Harris +0.7
🔵 ME: Harris +2.9
🔵 NM: Harris +2.1
🔵 VA: Harris +2.9
🔵 HI: Harris +13.8
🔵 IL: Harris +8.3
🔵 CO: Harris +9.8
🔵 NY: Harris +9.4
🔵 NJ: Harris +5.2

[Gold Crown Politics @GCrownPolitics]

The best national pollster from 2020, Atlas Intel, now has a margin of Trump +3.1 in their latest poll.

My model average is Trump +3.15.

Looks pretty damn spot on.

[AtlasIntel @atlas_intel]

📊 ATLAS POLL - U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

🔴 Trump: 50.7% (-0.2)
🔵 Harris: 47.6% (+0.3)
⚪ Others/Don’t know: 1.7% (-0.2)