@Tim_Walz You are a disgraceful hypocrite, governor. I’m only emboldened to say this by Jesus’s words to the Pharisees. He likened them to “white-washed tombs” (virtue signaling, dead on the inside). It’s so obvious.
A lot of people seem plagued with a misconception that wars start when the first gun is fired. This belief generally leads to the assumption that the first to fire is the bad guy and the first to get hit is always the good guy.
This is not true, and actually could not be more false. Combat starts when guns are fired and borders are crossed. But wars are started long before anything ever gets to that point. And preventing wars from happening requires an understanding of the factors and events that often culminate in military combat.
World War I didn’t start with the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. A long and complicated chain of events leading to global military conflict was set in motion long before that. World War II didn’t start with Germany’s invasion of Poland. It started with the terms of the Treaty of Versailles.
The Vietnam War didn’t start when U.S. ships were allegedly targeted in the Gulf of Tonkin. The end of French colonialism, the Geneva division of the nation along the 17th parallel, and the uneasy World War II alliance with Stalin—leading to the division of Europe—are what set the stage for America’s involvement in that war.
Which brings us to Ukraine. The war with Russia didn’t start in 2022 when Russia invaded eastern Ukraine. It didn’t start with the Crimean invasion in 2014. The most recent proximate cause of that war was the Western-instigated Maidan revolution (which precipitated the Crimean invasion) and the failure to fully implement the Minsk agreements that followed.
But even that is probably short-sighted, as you could look back even further to the 1997 Moscow-Kiev lease agreement regarding Russian military bases on the Black Sea in Sevastopol as being a major contributor to geographic tensions between the two countries.
To truly understand how we came to be where we are, however, you have to go back to the end of the Cold War, when the U.S.S.R. was broken up and redivided, and new countries were given geographical borders that often seemed completely arbitrary.
As university professor and former U.S. Pentagon official Mario Loyola noted, “When [Ukraine’s Soviet] borders suddenly became ‘real’ in 1991, amidst the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kiev found itself in control of a nuclear arsenal, the Black Sea fleet, Russia’s most important commercial and naval ports in the world (Odessa and Sevastopol), and tens of millions of Russians. U.S. diplomats realized the situation was dangerously untenable, and quickly pressed Kiev to return the nuclear arsenal and Black Sea fleet to Russia. Unfortunately, the adjustments stopped there, leaving Ukraine with a bigger bite of Russia than it could safely chew.”
The U.S. understood for a time that post-Cold War NATO expansion in eastern Europe was a major red line for Russia, especially regarding Ukraine. As a result, tensions eased. Until NATO started expanding again in the mid-2000s, that is.
Seven new nations, including Black Sea neighbors Romania and Bulgaria, were added in 2004. Ukraine began intensified dialog to join NATO in 2005.
Georgia, which also borders Russia along the Black Sea, began serious talks to be added to NATO in 2006. At this point, the only two Russian Black Sea neighbors outside of NATO were Georgia and Ukraine.
Russia unsurprisingly invaded Georgia just two years later while the U.S. was stuck in its own quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2009, nearly 30 years after the end of the Cold War, two more countries were added to NATO.
This was the geopolitical environment when the West instigated the Maidan revolution in early 2014. And how did Russia immediately respond? By taking Crimea. That doesn’t seem so random or unprovoked anymore, does it?
Then comes Biden’s election in 2021, immediately followed by new Ukrainian demands to join NATO (recall that Biden was the U.S. government’s point man on Ukraine policy in 2014), which Biden explicitly blessed. Russia then invaded Ukraine in early 2022.
Does all this historical context make Russia the good guy? Does it make Ukraine the bad guy? Of course not. Because there are no good guys and no bad guys, and if shattering that comforting myth about international relations shocks your conscience, then I have some bad news for you: you’re not going to make it in this arena.
There are no heroes and no villains, no good guys and no bad guys. There are no permanent allies and no permanent enemies. There are just nations and leaders with competing interests. Sometimes national interests align, and sometimes they are in direct conflict with each other.
You can kick and scream and complain about this reality all you want, but it will not change the reality of war and combat. And the reality of war is that it begins long before anyone ever fires a bullet.
Devo Tips: Agents of Revival (Haggai 1:1-11). If we consider our ways, we can shift the rhythms of our church culture toward missional discipleship. https://t.co/DBqiAPwpKT via @YouTube