GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance

Sports analytics, governance & data-driven insights
Predictive models, consultancy-style articles & visual dashboards

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

📊Welcome to 𝐆𝐌 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 - where data meets strategy.

I publish 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴, 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘴 & 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘦𝘭𝘴 across football and other sports

Follow for bite-sized analytics and topical threads.

[Improving Scottish Football @Improving_Scot]

"It's like a noose round our own neck...
Scottish football needs to be better than that!" 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿⚽️

Straight talking from @JamieSwinney86 in our latest episode. Available everywhere you get your pods, inc YouTube 🔥

[Jamie Swinney🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 @JamieSwinney86]

I have always believed that Scottish football can be better than it is.

There are few countries in the world that can rival the passion, rivalries, drama & history of our game.

Football is an integral part of our society & collectively we need to maximise its potential 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿⚽️

[Liam Henshaw @HenshawAnalysis]

It's a sad day for football analysis.

OPTA terminating their deal with FBRef.

Even less data freely available now, which means it's harder for people wanting to get started in analysis.

Good quality data should be freely available to people without subscriptions.

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

@Improving_Scot 16-14-14 still the preferred format for us.

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

The final article from our Linked in series “The Future of European Football” has just been published on our LinkedIn page.

If you’re interested, reach out and I can share it with you, or you can read it here: https://t.co/nDdoXVZqKq

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

@Johnsnow391329 @SamFielden5 Correct, they are short odds. The reason they are “tips” though, is because our prediction model give Sam ideas for bets that he wouldn’t normally make, due to not knowing the leagues as well.

We just provided Sam with the data, and he chose the bets he wanted to put on.

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

This weekend's Top Upset's according to the #GMSportsInsights Football Predictor.

Feyenoord, Real Madrid, Hearts, Brugge and Barca could all slip on banana skins this weekend if their opponents survive early surges & make the most of set-pieces.

Which one do you back?

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

We've just released our latest article looking at who could replace Brendan Rodgers at @CelticFC .

Our top options are Kjetil Knutsen and Kieran McKenna.

Who would you like to see at Parkhead?

Article on LinkedIn 👇

https://t.co/C2vLyMhOwo

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

This week’s top upset chances 👇

1.Gladbach over Bayern (~10%)
2.Arouca over Benfica (~8%)
3.Metz over Lille (~8%)
4.Sint-Truiden over Union SG (~12%)
5.Tondela over Sporting (~6%)

Reply: Which one feels most live to you? #football #upsets

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

This fixture featured on our #UpsetRadar, and it came very close to landing.

A 17% away-win chance turned into a 3–3 draw.

A reminder that even when the favourite dominates, probability always leaves room for surprise.

#GMSI #UpsetRadar #Ligue1 #FootballAnalytics

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

⚽ Ligue 1: @PSG_English 3–3 @RCSA

Possession dominance ≠ control of the result.

Before the weekend we flagged this match on our #UpsetRadar. Our #GMSI model gave PSG a 64% win probability, but the data tells a deeper story about efficiency beating volume.
🧵👇

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

🔍 Model Reflection

The draw fell squarely inside our 20% probability band… a reminder that possession-heavy sides can still be punished by finishing variance and compact defensive shape.

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

FT: Motherwell 1–2 Falkirk
⚽ Maswanhise (22’)
⚽ Miller (57’), Arfield (79’)

Possession: 67–33
Shots on target: 5–5
Clearances: 14–28

Falkirk overperformed the odds, and gave us another data-driven upset to study.

#SPFL | #GMSI | #FootballAnalytics | #Falkirk | #Motherwell

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

🧵 THREAD: Motherwell 1–2 Falkirk | GMSI Match Review

Our model gave @MotherwellFC a 55% win probability, with @FalkirkFC at just 23%.

But at Fir Park, the Bairns flipped the script, and the stats tell the story of how. 👇

[GM Sports Insights | Sports Analytics & Governance @GMSportsInsight]

6️⃣ Key Takeaway (GMSI Insight)

Our predictive model got the favourite right… on paper.

But Falkirk’s tactical profile (compact defence + vertical transitions) highlights a data gap:

We’re adding more weight to shot efficiency and defensive workload for future updates.