GPInvestments

Equity Research | Special Situations (Demerger, Value Unlocking)
Decoding trends before they’re obvious
Markets | Commodities | Midcaps
No recommendations.

[Gurmeet Chadha @connectgurmeet]

Our tax policies are driving out foreign capital

Our reservation, quotas are driving out human capital…

Needs to be fixed !!!

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

That’s exactly what I’m wondering too. EAF’s sharp move could partly be the market pricing in a favourable preliminary anti-dumping outcome. Higher duties on Indian graphite electrodes would clearly benefit GrafTech in the US, while potentially hurting HEG and Graphite India’s US competitiveness.

The key will be the actual duty rates. If they’re moderate, improving global electrode prices could still outweigh the impact for Indian players. Worth watching closely.

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

GrafTech (EAF) is on fire

From around $6.5 to $11+ in barely a week — nearly 70% up.

Today alone, another ~19% surge, touching above $11.

That’s some serious momentum in a very short period.

#GrafTech #EAF #GraphiteIndia
#HEG

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

If I’m looking at the next 10 years rather than the next 10 months, these are the sectors I want to spend most of my time understanding:

Defence
Semiconductors
EMS
CDMO
Precision Engineering

I feel some of India’s biggest manufacturing stories could come from these areas.

The opportunity is not just because these sectors are growing. India is slowly becoming an important part of global supply chains, while localisation, exports and domestic manufacturing are all moving in the right direction.

But simply buying the sector won’t be enough.

The real job is to find the companies that can become leaders — management that can execute, invest aggressively for the future, build technology and R&D capabilities, grow exports and do all this without constantly diluting shareholders.

Find the right businesses. Follow the execution. Give them time.

That’s where I’ll be looking for the next decade.

#Defence #Semiconductors #EMS #CDMO #PrecisionEngineering

[Nigel D'Souza @Nigel__DSouza]

Why are oil markets not reacting adversely despite attacks on Saudi Arabia & Moscow?
1️⃣ Trump’s diplomatic push: hopes of meetings with Iran’s Pezeshkian, China’s Xi & Gulf leaders this week.
2️⃣ Qatar says messages continue to be exchanged with Iran, keeping hopes of a return to the June MoU alive
3️⃣ Oil flows remain robust: US CENTCOM says oil & LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz hit a 6-month high. Saudi Aramco has also loaded ~14mn barrels across Ras Tanura & Ju'aymah

https://t.co/LaoUzuDmWE

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Good to see this from #HEGAM.

Replus Engitech has received a ₹217.56 Cr order from Indus Towers for Lithium-Ion Battery Banks, to be executed by March 2027.

For me, what matters here is that we are starting to see real orders coming into HEGAM’s battery energy storage business after the demerger.

₹218 Cr may not look huge on its own, but it’s a good start. If Replus can keep adding orders like this, while TACC scales up the synthetic graphite anode business, HEGAM could slowly build multiple growth engines.

Still early days. Execution and repeat orders are what I’ll be watching from here.

#HEGAM #HEG #EnergyStorage #BatteryStorage

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Keeping a close watch on #SolarIndustries.

Europe–Russia tensions are rising again and defence spending is unlikely to slow down anytime soon. Ammunition, missiles and drones continue to be key areas of focus globally.

Solar has already built a strong defence order book and recently added another ₹589 Cr of export orders.

Yes, the Omnia acquisition brings debt concerns in the near term. But beyond that noise, I feel Solar is slowly transforming from an explosives company into a much larger global explosives + defence player.

Interesting times ahead.

#SOLARINDS #Defence #MakeInIndia

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve officially hikes interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate hike since July 2023.

This ends the longest Fed interest rate pause since 2008.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

Around 15 months ago the Finance Ministry said claims that MDR would be charged on UPI were "completely false, baseless and misleading, and reaffirmed its commitment to promoting digital payments through UPI."

Today there is a U turn. From 15 October a 0.4% MDR will apply to specified person to merchant UPI transactions above Rs 2,000.

When STT was introduced, Parliament was told it was in lieu of capital gains tax on listed equities.

We now pay both STT and capital gains tax.

Dividends, once taxed at the company level, are now taxed in shareholders hands at slab rates.

What happened to Dream11?

Courts treated fantasy sports as a game of skill. Rules were later framed for permissible real money games. Then a law banned online money games.

Who allowed it, who banned it, and what material change occurred in those few years?

The problem is consistency and credibility. That is why so many people keep questioning official GDP growth rate to inflation numbers.

If the government had enough credibility, this level of scepticism would not exist.

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Tata Chemicals UC

Please note that Tata Sons will decide the next action at the 17th Sep meeting. If they go for an IPO, listing procedures would take 4 to 6 months.

They can also challenge the RBI decision in court, one needs to be careful here

Note that a parent holding stake always comes with a discount.

#tatachemicals

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Tata Sons stake value at an assumed ₹10 lakh crore valuation 👇

Tata Motors (PV): 3.06% → ₹30,600 Cr (~33% of MCap)
Tata Steel: 3.06% → ₹30,600 Cr (~16%)
🔥 Tata Chemicals: 2.53% → ₹25,300 Cr (~162%!)
Tata Power: 1.65% → ₹16,500 Cr
Indian Hotels: 1.11% → ₹11,100 Cr
Tata Consumer: 0.43% → ₹4,300 Cr
Tata Investment: 0.25% → ₹2,500 Cr
Tata Chemicals clearly stands out — its implied Tata Sons stake alone is ~1.6x its market cap.

#TataSons #TataChemicals #TataMotors #TataSteel #TataPower #TataGroup

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Tata Sons stake value at an assumed ₹10 lakh crore valuation 👇

Tata Motors (PV): 3.06% → ₹30,600 Cr (~33% of MCap)
Tata Steel: 3.06% → ₹30,600 Cr (~16%)
🔥 Tata Chemicals: 2.53% → ₹25,300 Cr (~162%!)
Tata Power: 1.65% → ₹16,500 Cr
Indian Hotels: 1.11% → ₹11,100 Cr
Tata Consumer: 0.43% → ₹4,300 Cr
Tata Investment: 0.25% → ₹2,500 Cr
Tata Chemicals clearly stands out — its implied Tata Sons stake alone is ~1.6x its market cap.

#TataSons #TataChemicals #TataMotors #TataSteel #TataPower #TataGroup

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Russia, Ukraine agree to not hit energy targets, says Trump

[Nigel D'Souza @Nigel__DSouza]

🚨 Solar Industries goes for a large inorganic acquisition 🚨

Solar Industries Arm to acquire South Africa’s #Omnia Holdings for ₹12,951 Cr.

Omnia reported FY26 revenue of ~$1.41B (₹13,307 Cr) and remained net-cash positive.

Prima facie, this looks like an interesting deal:
1️⃣ Solar will more than double revenues on the FY26 base
2️⃣ Solar trades at ~20x trailing sales, while Omnia is being acquired at ~1x trailing sales

@CNBCTV18Live

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

Key global cues to watch today:

• AI stocks under pressure after industry leaders called for slowing down frontier AI development. Nasdaq futures down 1%+.

• Crude continues to move higher on Middle East tensions. This remains the biggest macro risk for India.

• US bond yields remain elevated as markets reassess the Fed path. Not great for expensive growth stocks.

• Asian markets are weak, with Japan and Korea leading the fall.

• BOJ policy is another one to watch — any further tightening could impact global liquidity.

• China data remains important. Any further weakness will weigh on commodities and overall risk sentiment.

Overall, not a great setup — higher crude, higher yields and some nervousness around the AI trade.

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

AI trade under pressure 🚨

Nasdaq futures ↓1%+
S&P 500 futures ↓0.6%
Asia ↓0.5%
Oil ↑

Trigger: Major AI leaders calling for a slowdown in frontier AI development.

For now, this looks more like AI valuation compression than AI-demand destruction.

The real test: Nvidia & semis. If they stabilize, it’s a correction. If selling persists, the market may be pricing in an AI-capex slowdown.

[🇸🇬 Krishna Reddy @sgkrishnareddy]

This one ❤️❤️❤️

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

NSE IPO finally has a price tag: ₹1,700–₹1,785/share, valuing the issue at ₹22,561 Cr at the upper end.

Many investors bought NSE in the unlisted market at ₹1,900–₹2,300 over the last 3 years.

This is an important lesson: Great company ≠ great investment at any valuation.

Be extremely cautious in the unlisted market. Price discovery is weak, liquidity is limited, information asymmetry is high, and judging fair value is far harder than in listed markets.

Don’t let IPO hype justify any price.

Anchor: Sep 16
IPO: Sep 17–21

Valuation matters. Entry price matters even more.

#NSE
#IPO

[Jacob Coxon @hilbertspaess]

I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

IRANIAN MEDIA: TEHRAN SETS NEW CONDITIONS FOR RESUMING TALKS WITH WASHINGTON

[GPInvestments @GPInvestmentSol]

@yatinmota HEG to list at a premium with the improved pricing cycle. Those who bought HEG before Sep 7 should benefit handsomely.Believe Graphite cycle has started ,