Tim Hollingsworth

Trading since 2001. About the balance between fear and greed. Humility and arrogance. Patience is key.#EURUSD 15-20 pips a day. Do your own Analysis. @hedgedash

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD Every day brings new opportunities. Be patient. Be safe.

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD

1/6
🚨 EUR/USD is dropping despite the Core PPI miss (0.4% vs 0.5% expected).
The softer core reading should have been USD-negative… but it’s getting completely ignored right now.
Here’s why 👇

2/6
Core PPI miss = legitimately dovish signal.
It shows underlying producer inflation cooling faster than expected.
Normally this weakens the USD (lower yields, more dovish Fed bets).
But today the market is shrugging it off.

3/6
Main driver right now: Middle East tensions (US-Iran conflict).
Safe-haven flows are pouring into the USD.
Oil/energy spikes are also inflating the headline PPI (+1.1% vs 0.7% expected), giving the dollar extra support.
The core miss gave a very brief lift… then it was sold.

4/6
Other factors weighing on EUR/USD:
• Headline PPI beat still adds some hawkish tilt
• ECB decision + Lagarde press conference happening at the same time (high volatility)
• EUR/USD was already sitting near two-month lows before today’s data

5/6
Classic “data vs narrative” situation.
The narrative (geopolitics + risk-off + ECB event risk) is stronger than the data (Core miss) at this exact moment.
The Core miss may limit how far USD can run longer-term, but it’s not winning today.

6/6
What to watch now:
• ECB press conference tone (biggest near-term driver for EUR)
• Any Middle East de-escalation headlines
• US 2-year yields & DXY reaction
Stay nimble — this session is volatile.
#EURUSD #PPI #ECB #Forex #USD

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

@ot13jm Less than 10% 🙂

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD Daily chart looks v tired now.

EURUSD: Big volatility expected tonight (AEST times)
🔴 10:15pm – ECB Main Refinancing Rate
Expected: +25bp to 2.40% (widely priced in)
🔴 10:30pm – US Core PPI & PPI
Forecasts point to cooler inflation vs last month
🔴 10:45pm – ECB Press Conference (Lagarde)
Key drivers for EURUSD:
•Hike itself is expected → reaction will depend on forward guidance
•Soft US PPI = bullish for EUR
•Hawkish Lagarde tone = strong EUR upside
•Dovish tone = EUR sell-off
High volatility likely from 10:15pm onward. Daily chart looks vulnerable to the downside if guidance disappoints.
#EURUSD #ECB #Forex

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

@patienceisfree @AtifHussainOG Tks mate. 🙂

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD V tough market. 10 pips at a time. ☕️

[LMAX Group @LMAX]

Thursday Preview Call: The waiting game: ECB, oil and the Middle East

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD

As of early June 11, 2026 (around 00:45 UTC / 10:45 AM AEST), EUR/USD is trading near 1.1540 (last ~1.1541, bid/ask 1.1540/1.1542), up a modest +0.03% today.03
Today’s range so far has been relatively narrow: high 1.1543 – low 1.1526 (open 1.1537).0
Probable Range for Today
1.1515 – 1.1555 (most likely intraday trading band).
This is derived from standard daily pivot points (classic method, based on yesterday’s high/low/close), which are widely used by traders to estimate probable support/resistance and range:2
Level
Price
R3
1.1552
R2
1.1545
R1
1.1540
Pivot
1.1533
S1
1.1528
S2
1.1521
S3
1.1516
•Most probable core range (where price typically spends most of the day): S2–R2 ≈ 1.1521–1.1545.
•Full expected extremes (with volatility from events): S3–R3 ≈ 1.1515–1.1555.
Bias and Key Context
Technical indicators currently show a Strong Sell signal overall, with moving averages also in sell territory.0 The pair remains under pressure from a firmer US dollar and Fed tightening expectations. A break below ~1.1500–1.1520 is possible if upcoming US data surprises to the upside.
Major Events Today Likely to Drive the Range
•ECB Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference (Lagarde speaks) — expected rate hike to 2.40%.
•US PPI (May) and other US data releases.
•US CPI (tomorrow) is already casting a shadow.
These events typically expand the daily range beyond the quiet early Asian session.
Bottom line: Expect EUR/USD to oscillate mainly between ≈1.1515 and 1.1555 today, with a slight downside bias unless the ECB or US data deliver major surprises. The pair is currently in a tight holding pattern near the daily pivot, so the first break of 1.1521 or 1.1545 will likely set the tone for the European/US sessions.

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD Pretty dismal attempt last night for euro. Looking very tired now. ☕️

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD This current 4 hour candle has an average ATR of 43 pips for last 12 months. Just a little trivia. 🙂

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD What Trades First ?

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

EURUSD Data mildly bullish euro. Dont fight the tape.

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD DATA US

🚨 US CPI (May) JUST DROPPED — Quick Take for EURUSD traders
Core CPI m/m: 0.2% ❌ (vs 0.3% forecast, 0.4% prior) → clear miss
Core CPI y/y: 2.9% (in line)
Headline CPI m/m: 0.5% (in line)
Headline CPI y/y: 4.2% (in line, energy-driven)
Bottom line:
Mildly DOVISH for the USD → BULLISH for EURUSD
The “sell EURUSD anyway” crowd is fighting the data. Core monthly miss is what the Fed actually watches. Headline jump is mostly oil — market usually looks through that.
Pre-release shorts + positioning = possible knee-jerk dip… but the data itself does NOT justify aggressive selling.
Buy the core-cooled dip unless something else (equities, geopolitics) overrides.
Watch the next 15-60 min reaction 👀
#CPI #EURUSD #Forex #Trading

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD OIL

🛢️ Oil effect from today’s US-Iran strikes 🚨
US hit Iranian targets near Hormuz yesterday → Iran fired back at US bases.
Brent crude spiked early on supply fears but is now steady around $91.24 (down ~0.2% today). WTI ~$88.06.
Why it matters:
•20% of global oil flows through Strait of Hormuz
•No full closure yet = contained premium
•But any deeper escalation = quick $10–20 jump possible
Markets watching CPI + de-escalation signals.
#Oil #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

# EURUSD Just a thought.

No, I don’t think major data like the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) gets systematically leaked to “big players” (hedge funds, big banks, etc.) in a deliberate, actionable way before the official release. The evidence points to tight controls, official denials after investigations, and no smoking-gun proof of intentional leaks of the actual numbers. That said, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has had some sloppy procedural lapses in recent years that understandably fuel suspicion and raise fairness questions.12
Here’s why I land there, based on the record:
•Safeguards are strong (and have gotten stricter): CPI is released at a precise time (usually 8:30 a.m. ET) directly on the BLS website. The old media “lock-up” (where reporters got advance access under strict no-comms rules) was ended years ago partly over concerns about unfair edges. No phones, no early wires—it’s designed to prevent leaks. BLS has repeatedly stated they run checks after any suspicious pre-release activity and find no evidence of hacks, breaches, or insider sharing of the actual figures.4
•The big “suspicious” incidents were investigated and didn’t hold up as leaks:
◦Dec 2022: Treasury futures moved sharply seconds before the CPI drop. White House and BLS explicitly said “no leaks from here” and found zero evidence of system compromise or foul play.8
◦May 2024: BLS accidentally posted a subset of CPI files ~30 minutes early. It was a clear screw-up, but there was no unusual pre-release trading or media buzz—it went largely unnoticed, and markets only reacted at the official time.13
◦Similar pattern with other BLS data (e.g., jobs revisions in 2024), where some Wall Street firms got early peeks due to website glitches, but again, not proven as intentional leaks of the headline CPI number.
•The “super users” issue is real but not a data leak: In early 2024, a BLS economist emailed a small group of Wall Street economists (from JPMorgan, BlackRock, Citadel, etc.) about CPI methodology details (like how rent or used-car indexes are calculated). This gave them extra insight into how the sausage is made, which could sharpen forecasts. BLS later called it inappropriate and not standard practice. It’s not the same as handing over tomorrow’s CPI print, but it does highlight how big institutions sometimes get preferential technical briefings.33
Big players do have real edges—but they’re usually legal ones:
•Teams of PhD economists with sophisticated models that forecast CPI extremely well (often within a tenth of a point).
•Access to alternative data (credit cards, satellite imagery, etc.).
•Speed: High-frequency traders and algos react in milliseconds once the number hits the wire.
Traders on Reddit, X, and trading desks will always scream “leak!” when bonds or futures twitch right before release—it’s human nature when billions are on the line. And the pattern of BLS accidents (early posts, selective emails) has eroded some trust. But actual proven leaks of the final CPI number? None that investigations have confirmed. The penalties for a government employee leaking this would be career-ending (and likely criminal), and the track record shows the agency investigates rumors aggressively.
Bottom line: The system isn’t flawless, and Wall Street’s information advantage is real in other ways. But routine, deliberate CPI leaks to the big boys? The facts don’t support it. It’s more incompetence and coincidence than conspiracy. If new evidence ever surfaces, I’d update that view instantly.

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

@The_Daily_Setup Same here.

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD

📊 IG Client Sentiment Index – EUR/USD (Live)
✅ 58% of IG retail clients are NET LONG
❌ 42% are NET SHORT
Retail traders are heavily buying the dip near the 1.1500 support…
🔴 As a classic contrarian indicator, this strong net-long positioning signals a BEARISH bias for EUR/USD.
Price currently ~1.1555
What’s your take? #Forex #EURUSD #Trading #IGClientSentiment

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

@hedgefundsrati1 Yep.

[Tim Hollingsworth @GRTOceanRd]

#EURUSD If in doubt simply look at 4 Hour Candle.