Grova Investments

Equities, fundamentally and technically. Not investment advice

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

I wrote an introduction and showed my returns since inception on Substack. Check it out!

https://t.co/s7Y3lIa4Q8

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

I simply can't believe $NVDA continues to trade at 21x fwd earnings

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Put together a little interest rate basket consisting of Gold: $GLD $RGLD and Homebuilders: $PHM $MHO $CVCO as a hedge that oil/inflation falls more quickly than expected. Targeting 4% of port

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@rhunterh

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Is there anything bullish about gold today?

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Sold $ORCL today. Debated on it but it doesn’t scream cheap at all. Happy to take the 5% L

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Planning on opening a swing position in $ORCL tomorrow

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Took a ~2% entry position in $ORCL today. Stop loss in the $132-133 range

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

In hindsight this was an incredible hedge bet. Too bad I didn’t hold it

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

taking a small speculative position in $CF for a few reasons: 1) mgmt projects strong demand for ammonia through 26-27 2) the stock looks somewhat oversold with a tight stop and 3) is a good hedge against peace plans falling through

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

The mega bull case for AI infrastructure would be *if* market share shifted away from certain frontier labs with 90%+ inference margins toward cheaper models, whether open-source or closed.

It would increase the ROI on AI spend for end customers by increasing intelligence per dollar, which would drive incremental token demand. Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers. The infra winners would be those with the lowest per token cost and the winners at the model layer would be those with the highest token efficiency.

There are many reasons Jensen is so focused on open source, but this is likely the most important one as I think he is probably less worried about a monopsony these days. Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at the infra layer all else equal.

With SpaceX and Meta being vertically integrated and possessing the #3 and #4 models respectively it is more possible than ever. Note that Grok 4.5 is ahead of Fable for some useful tasks at a much lower cost, so ranking them #3 is conservative.

This is not happening yet. Cheap, mostly open source tokens are likely the majority of volume today but the majority of economic value is still accruing to the most intelligent models. Might change though.

We will see.

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@Lifeinvestmoney So true!

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@HighyieldHarry Because Ackman has had decent returns, he thinks himself a genius investor. He isn’t nearly as good as he thinks Buffett is. He’s not dumb, just rich off of fees. I would probably act the same

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@FiSurgi FIRE is what you plan for when you don’t like what you do for a living. Maybe instead of FIRE, find a living you enjoy doing. Life is too short

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@ondrejslunecko Why would investing in $VOO not be investing? How is it “saving with extra steps?” Worst advice on fintwit

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@BoringBiz_ I think It’s easy to get accustomed to your circumstances. When I spent all day in Excel, in my old career, I only worried about whether I was spending enough time there. Terrible place to be in when you have one life

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@Jason Performative, I’m afraid. That ash tray has no ash in it

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Too expensive

[dray @drayinvests]

Can someone give me a real reason $NFLX keeps dropping?

Down almost -44% in the past year

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

@SCHIZO_FREQ 4 is the limit. 2-3 is preferred

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

Been thinking a lot about $META during this move. Sentiment follows price, and I’m no exception.

On a pure PEG basis, it’s a little below fair value even after the recent move. I think it was and still is being discounted because of the burn from Reality Labs and general skepticism toward new, capital-intensive ventures—whether or not the AI infra investments will actually pay off.

Now, Meta’s PR is indicating that they have plans to monetize it to a fuller extent. Aside from marginal monetization from third parties (the recent catalyst), I think the bull thesis is that the AI infra investment will allow them to more effectively deliver AI-generated and algorithmically-delivered ads to their users. This is not news, of course, but I’ve only just got my head around it, especially in how they can offer not only AI-generated ads (cutting out a lot of time and money costs for advertisers) but also very specific and more accurate ad placement.

At the current price and multiple, the market is basically disregarding both the extreme capital investment and any potential gains from the investment. It is currently valued as if the core family of apps were a cash cow rather than a duopolistic member that could combine its market position and its AI capabilities to increase ad efficiency and therefore pricing and volume, not to mention cloud and glasses revenues.

I think Meta today is priced as if it will stagnate. This isn’t unfair since DAU decreased for the first time last quarter. But the price ignores any gains realized from their current investments, which I think will pay off at least marginally if not significantly.

That said, I don’t have a position and probably will not take one until at least after the next quarter’s release and any statement therein of additional investment outlays.

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

It's great that $META has enough cash flow to throw things against the wall to see what sticks. But I think Reality Labs, on top of being a mistake, was committed to with such conviction (even changing the name of the whole company...) that it created perpetual heartburn for its investors and potential investors

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

$META is such an odd duck. I can't ever bring myself to buy it even though it checks all of my boxes. There is a quality of aimlessness about it, or rather aiming at too many things, which is the same thing

[Grova Investments @GVRSCH]

I watched $EVER plummet to extreme lows earlier this year, despite its incredible growth, and didn't buy a single share because everyone was saying insurance brokers were dead in the water. It's now up 70% since then. Lesson in there