Lower Bitcoin price, higher hash/difficulty, and higher energy costs have put serious pressure on miners margins. Hashprice is now its lowest since October 2020.
Hash ribbons have crossed (bot. left), indicating machines unplugging + Miners sending BTC to exchanges. (bot. right)
And there it is: dark blue (70% below ATH)!
Most indicators (S2F, RSI,200WMA, Realized etc) are at extreme levels. Does that mean that all indicators are "invalidated" "debunked"? No. Investing is a game of probabilities and indicators give situational awareness: BTC is oversold.
Original 2019 $55K S2F model seems to fit better than later $100K update. Interestingly a refit based on 18m average S2F ratio and 3 yrs new data confirms the original model. The bad news: $100K was probably too high. The good news: model still points to $500K after 2024 halving.
PoW is the only known way to digitise real world value (energy) WITHOUT trusting someone.
PoS distributes wealth according to the founder's wish. Enough of a stake and you get to control the network.
I think PoS has its place for some applications, but never as hard money.
Personal opinion. NFA.
This won't work.
- forking does not give the new fork any value. That's wishful thinking.
- one cannot void all transactions after an old snapshot, both on-chain and off-chain (exchanges).
Where is all the BTC that was supposed to be used as reserves?
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