GabyOnMarkets

Ex-oil trader , now swinging crypto, equities, metals. Market junkie sharing technical setups & macro ideas (assisted by AI).

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@thedefivillain https://t.co/leXo6i0StM

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

(long post)

Most of May's altcoin pumps were short squeezes, not real buying. The median alt did +1.4% while BTC fell 3.5%. Looks like breadth. It wasn't — strip the top 7 and the median alt was flat-to-down.

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@CoinMarketCap https://t.co/rxR3vhOb6A

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Why this isn't a one-day dip 🧵

Semis led the entire rally. On Jun 2, SOXX went vertical — +5.8% in a single day to a fresh ATH. By Friday: −10.4%, its worst day.

A blow-off top in the leader — and it's STILL +17% above its 50dMA. The unwind has barely started. 1/

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@TrendSpider https://t.co/rxR3vhOb6A

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Why this isn't a one-day dip 🧵

Semis led the entire rally. On Jun 2, SOXX went vertical — +5.8% in a single day to a fresh ATH. By Friday: −10.4%, its worst day.

A blow-off top in the leader — and it's STILL +17% above its 50dMA. The unwind has barely started. 1/

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@PolymarketMoney https://t.co/lSYmBprBOx

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Why this isn't a one-day dip 🧵

Semis led the entire rally. On Jun 2, SOXX went vertical — +5.8% in a single day to a fresh ATH. By Friday: −10.4%, its worst day.

A blow-off top in the leader — and it's STILL +17% above its 50dMA. The unwind has barely started. 1/

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@TrendSpider https://t.co/lSYmBprBOx

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Why this isn't a one-day dip 🧵

Semis led the entire rally. On Jun 2, SOXX went vertical — +5.8% in a single day to a fresh ATH. By Friday: −10.4%, its worst day.

A blow-off top in the leader — and it's STILL +17% above its 50dMA. The unwind has barely started. 1/

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

$SOXX $SMH $NVDA $AVGO $QQQ $SPX #FinTwit #semiconductors

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Why this isn't a one-day dip 🧵

Semis led the entire rally. On Jun 2, SOXX went vertical — +5.8% in a single day to a fresh ATH. By Friday: −10.4%, its worst day.

A blow-off top in the leader — and it's STILL +17% above its 50dMA. The unwind has barely started. 1/

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

What follow-through looks like:

→ SOXX 50dMA sits ~15% lower (462); SMH's at 507 — that's the first real magnet → Nasdaq closed dead on its lows Friday (no dip-buyers) → VIX +40% to 21.5 — still nowhere near March's 31, so no capitulation yet = room below

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

And the driver is durable, not a one-off.

May jobs +172k (2× est) → 10y to 4.54% → the Fed flips from CUT to HIKE (~57–60% odds by year-end). Classic "good news is bad news": a strong economy now means tighter policy.

That's a re-rating headwind for high-multiple tech — not a one-day scare. Money rotated into staples & healthcare while small caps fell too = risk-off, not healthy rotation. 2/

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@ArdiNSC Megaphone pattern is also nice

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@lookonchain @CryptoHayes Arthur rarely gets it right, he is the Cramer of crypto. what he gets right is to sell in profit the tokens he shills to his audience in blow off phase.

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@benjamincowen spot on. people say is Saylor or is people selling crypto to buy SpaceX / anthropic / OpenAI and it can be all these things but these are only amplifiers...at the end of the day is the 4y cycle working as it always does

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@swisstrader09 nice rounding bottom, some spot buying...decent setup yes

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@CrypNuevo only flags to rally here is we didn't flush enough open interest enough, funding is still neutral all while blackrock selling daily for 2 weeks or so...but a bounce can happen, of course. another flag is a clear divergence to equities putting ATHs after ATHs.

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@benjamincowen and 5B in etf outflows...but agree, mostly because u didnt reach 1M yet. forecast is will happen in sep/oct26

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@IncomeSharks No supercycle

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@thedefivillain A nice 90 wick yes

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Bottom-confirmation checklist (what flips the read to buy)
Funding turns negative and stays there (shorts crowd → squeeze setup) — the single best tell
OI drops another 10-20% (the leverage actually purges)
Capitulation wick + spot CVD flips positive (real bid absorbs)
L/S ratio falls (longs finally give up) — right now it's rising

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

Bottom-confirmation checklist (what flips the read to buy)
Funding turns negative and stays there (shorts crowd → squeeze setup) — the single best tell
OI drops another 10-20% (the leverage actually purges)
Capitulation wick + spot CVD flips positive (real bid absorbs)
L/S ratio falls (longs finally give up) — right now it's rising

[GabyOnMarkets @GabyOnMarkets]

@swisstrader09 4b usd in etf outflows did