Follower of RN Elliot, WD Gann and Leonardo Bonacci.
I'm not here to sell anything. I Just Share my understanding about the charts I post. Don't follow blindly
The QTR staring Jan 2027 will be interesting to C for major market reaction. The time cycle starts 24 Dec 2026.
Before that important time cycle dates.
6 May&15May
5 Jun
3rd July (VIMP)
14 Aug (IMP)
28 Sep (VVIMP)
05 Oct (VIMP)
02 Nov (IMP)
31 Dec (VVIMP)
DO Note on chart
@indiacharts@HormuzLetter@sunchartist You seems correct sir but I think We should not Ignore this possibility too in crude where E can be a triangle.
Alsonnifty has started corrective move from 23262 which seems abc abc type where yellow abc done but blue and red yet seems pending
If people who are not supposed to be experts say something like this, that is fine. It is not their core area. But for people who are supposedly professional investors, this is an astonishing level of ignorance. I do not mean to pick on this gentleman as there are many more such folks. Point is to teach and to learn.
India's PPP conversion rate is 20, quibbles aside. The multiplier to get to 96 is 4.8. Theoretically, if India and US had same incomes the multiplier would be around 1. The reduction of the multiplier as a country grows is called the Balassa Samuelson effect. Some call it the Penn effect. I would also like to acknowledge Jagdish Bhagwati's work in this context.
Now, PPP conversion rate drifts upwards by relative inflation difference and some adjustments. While India is likely to bring down its 4% target inflation before 2047, let us say it remains 4% and US at 2% (though they have been exceeding it.)
That takes 2047 PPP rate to 30 from 20. Now a 240 USDINR then would mean a 8x PPP/MER. Such a number is flat out impossible for an economy-pair like US-India, even less so that by 2047 India will have 35-40% of US incomes adjusted for cost of living and population (like say a Chile today) at only 5% faster growth (RLCU.) Currently India has 13-14% of US incomes.
Now what is an ideal multiple for 35-40% of US income. It depends on global cycle, country scale, deficits etc. But broadly it should be in the 1.5-2.5x region. Which means the rupee should be in the 45-75 region as per this analysis. The midpoint is 60, which is 4 times stronger than the quoted analysis has suggested.
So unless one believes that India will have double digit inflation, US low inflation, India low growth, US high growth and all four together - the quoted number is almost impossible to materialise.
I understand this is boring, step-by-step analysis but this is the only way to understand this phenomenon. Hope it helps.
@MagicNifty Apr 2025 se abhi cycle hit hua hai larger wala US me.
So agar waha selling aayegi to Yaha 10 year bond yields jump karna chahiye and iska effect india me bhi dikhna chahiye.
@narendramodi Kuch nahi milega kishan bhai ko.
inflation is going to increase.
Before that already tax brackets have expanded but after pay commission all salaried personnel will fall under tax deductions.
And farmers will face a price hike for all essentials.
Khela khel rahe ho