Gareth Lowman

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

Bigger fall than expected. Consensus was for 3.5%. Core inflation also down below expectations. Door wide open for the @bankofengland to cut rates tomorrow

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

Interesting.

When @RachelReevesMP gave "that" press conference in Downing St earlier this month she put the @OBR_UK and its forecasts front and centre as the explanation for why "difficult decisions" (eg tax rises) were necessary.

Yet today we learn, from the chronology sent by the head of the OBR to Meg Hillier of the Treasury Committee, that not only was the OBR forecast NOT going to wipe out her headroom against her fiscal rule, but it had been telling HMT that for weeks.

Indeed, by the time she called that press conference the forecast was already nailed down - and the OBR had NOT put the govt in the red vs its fiscal rule.

The chronology shows the very first set of OBR forecasts, delivered to HMT in early Oct, did indeed suggest all the Chancellor's headroom against her rules had been wiped out. See the -2.5bn next to "Round 1".

But even more striking is what happened next. The forecasts improved. So in every other round the Chancellor would have hit her fiscal rules (had it not been for the govt's own u-turns). By the time of that press conference she still had 4.2bn against her headroom after the OBR forecasts.

Yes that's slightly lower than the 9.9bn she had before. But the real thing that pushed her over the edge and meant she needed to raise taxes was a) the previous govt u-turns on welfare etc and b) the abolition of the two child cap. Not the OBR.

On the one hand the chronology shows that maybe the decision to hold the Budget so late was a masterstroke since it did indeed provide time for the OBR forecast to improve

On the other hand, the tone and content of her press conference seems all the more strange knowing what we know now.

[Bank of England @bankofengland]

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5-4 to keep interest rates at 4%.

Find out more: https://t.co/GHHt7QdrbF

#InterestRates #BankOfEngland #BoE

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to September 2025, unchanged from August 2025.

The September, August and July 2025 figures were the joint-highest recorded since January 2024, when the rate was 4.0%.

Read the article ➡️ https://t.co/MkZBeF7kCc

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2025, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to May.

Read the full article ➡️ https://t.co/dtb7FWO7pw

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to May 2025, compared with 3.5% in the 12 months to April.

Read the full article ➡️ https://t.co/m9vpk5oFn3

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 2.6% in March 2025.

Read the full article ➡️ https://t.co/eeQd9l83c7

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

GDP grew 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

Services (+0.7%) and production (+1.1%) both grew, while construction (0.0%) was flat.

Read the full article ➡️ https://t.co/unTRD62jYM

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8% in the 12 months to February 2025, down from 3.0% in January 2025.

Read the full article ➡️ https://t.co/hKPQJ5EyBe

[Melanie Bien @melaniebien]

The house price hangover haunting Britain five years on - client @jeremyleaf comments via the @Telegraph https://t.co/uj4w8wiME1

[Kevin Roberts @kevin1roberts]

Your first step when considering your mortgage options should always be to speak to a professional mortgage adviser. They’ll help guide you through the borrowing process.

Read my tips in @TheTimes: https://t.co/eHxqzi7RtQ

#MortgageAdvice

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

👀 Lower than expected

[Bank of England @bankofengland]

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 6-3 to maintain #BankRate at 4.75%. Find out more: https://t.co/FWuXvEhN0R

[Gareth Lowman @GarethLowman]

Higher than expectations. Final in the coffin for those wanting a Base Rate cut in December???

[Office for National Statistics (ONS) @ONS]

CPI rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to Oct 2024, up from 1.7% in Sept 2024.

Read the release ➡️ https://t.co/cIrNnjEwEf

[Melanie Bien @melaniebien]

Client @SPFPrivClients is well known for arranging mortgages, not so much for its extensive insurance division. In @TheSTHome , insurance specialist Delia Fernandez talks about the devastation of house fires and how to minimise risk https://t.co/AkUKOFI3kZ

[Bank of England @bankofengland]

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 8-1 to reduce #BankRate to 4.75%. Find out more in our #MonetaryPolicyReport: https://t.co/lEYCgPolsz

[Hamptons Research @Hamptons1869]

Last tax year, people paying the 3% stamp duty surcharge accounted for 48% of all stamp duty revenue, handing over a total of £4.2bn. However, increasing the stamp duty surcharge is unlikely to bring in much more money. (1/3)

[David Byers @davidbyers26]

Additional stamp duty for second home-owners up to 5% from 3% is a big deal, and a blow for landlords.

[Melanie Bien @melaniebien]

UK net mortgage approvals edged up in September - the highest level in more than two years - clients @SPFPrivClients @jeremyleaf comment https://t.co/hC5OI4Z0XU

[Melanie Bien @melaniebien]

Mortgage approvals surge to two-year high as buyers chase best buy offers – clients @SPFPrivClients @jeremyleaf comment https://t.co/Hlb9NupQ7I