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As soon as oil came down, notice how the software stocks like $MSFT, $CRM and $NOW performed so poorly. Investors had been distracted, but once oil fades, back to private debt problems.
Watch the 10 year bond auction today at 1pm ET. $39 billion being sold. Demand has been very low for treasuries, let's see if the cease fire increases demand. If not, rates could stay higher for longer.
Oil collapses to $100/bbl after cease fire is announcement as a 'deal' is to be finalized in the next two weeks. It is TACO Tuesday, after all. Futures surge!
Durable Goods Orders come in at -1.40% slightly worse than the -1.10% forecast. All eyes remain on oil as the 'deadline' approaches. S&P chart remains slightly bullish in the near-term. Mid-term still looks nasty per the charts.
Oil negative this morning even after U.S. planes shot down, social media threats and another deadline issued. Hopes of a ceasefire helping calm things in the near-term, investors keep buying stocks on anticipation of the Straight of Hormuz being reopened.
Unemployment Rate (March) dropped to 4.3% from 4.4% forecast. But hourly earnings came in at +0.2% vs +0.3% forecast. Mixed messages on jobs and labor market continue. Focus turns back to oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
March Non Farm Payrolls +178,000 vs +65,000 forecast. Much better-than-expected. However, last months payrolls were revised down to -133,000. Futures spiked on algo buying, then quickly reversed as everyone knows these will be revised lower next month.
Trump gives no clarity in speech, investors run for cover. Oil surges nearly 10%. 3 day weekend looms for markets, this will create added fear, which equals opportunity.
ADP Non Farm Employment (March) gained 66K vs 41K estimate. Overall, not bad considering the oil shock. Retail sales for February (before oil shock) came in at 0.60% vs 0.50% forecast.